伦敦：“彻底回归。”这是法国财政部长罗兰·莱斯库尔对安迪·伯纳姆提出的英国需要重新思考其与欧盟关系的建议所作出的回应。莱斯库尔并非孤声。他的上司、法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙表示，逆转脱欧是一个“极佳”的想法。西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯也建议，英国将以“敞开怀抱”的姿态欢迎其回归。
LONDON: “Come all the way back.”That was Roland Lescure, France’s finance minister, responding to Andy Burnham’s suggestion that Britain needs to rethink its relations with the European Union Lescure was not a lone voice. His boss, President Emmanuel Macron says the reversal of Brexit is an “excellent” idea. Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s prime minister, suggested that Britain would be welcomed back with “open arms”.
那么，我们是否正面临着一种“猫门式脱欧”？我们的猫朋友有这样的习惯：它们会尖叫着要求离开房子——随后又同样热切地要求重新进入。英国有一天会不会悠闲地穿过欧盟的猫门而回归？
So could we be looking at a cat-flap Brexit? Our feline friends have a habit of screaming to get out of the house - before demanding, with equal fervour, to come back in again. Will Britain one day stroll back through the EU cat flap?
需要克服的障碍 显然，通往欧盟的大门远比普通猫门更加坚固。在英国重新加入之前，需要克服诸多艰巨的障碍。但逆转脱欧的政治、经济和战略论据正在不断积累力量和势头。
OBSTACLES TO OVERCOME Clearly, the door to the EU is rather better fortified than the average cat flap. There would be formidable obstacles to overcome before Britain could rejoin. But the political, economic and strategic case for reversing Brexit is gathering strength and momentum.
从政治层面说起。尽管伯纳姆外表朴实亲民，但他是一位精明且狠辣的政治操盘手。他知道，如今民意调查显示，59%的英国人希望重新加入欧盟，而仅有32%的人持反对态度。然而，目前没有任何主要政党公开主张重新加入。这看起来就像政治上的一个空门。评论员萨姆·弗里德曼指出，民调显示，“对欧盟的强烈 manifesto 承诺可能会使工党的得票率提高四到七个百分点”。
Start with the politics. Behind his folksy exterior, Burnham is a shrewd and ruthless political operator. He knows that opinion polls now suggest that 59 per cent of British people want to rejoin the EU, with just 32 per cent opposed. And yet no major political party is currently advocating rejoining. That looks like the political equivalent of an open goal. The commentator Sam Freedman points out that polls suggest that “a strong manifesto commitment on the EU could add four to seven points to Labour’s vote percentage”.
首相的关键顾问早已得出结论：脱欧一直在拖累英国经济——而仅仅重新加入关税同盟或欧盟内部市场，不足以弥补造成的损害。伯纳姆所设定的每一个重大目标——无论是改革社会护理还是增加国防开支——都因资金短缺而举步维艰。如果重新加入欧盟能够提升增长率，那么许多其他问题也将变得更易解决。
Key advisers to the prime minister concluded long ago that Brexit has acted as a drag on the British economy - and that rejoining the customs union or the EU’s internal market would not be enough to repair the damage. Every big goal that Burnham has - from fixing social care to spending more on defence - is hamstrung by a lack of money. If rejoining the EU could raise the growth rate then a lot of other issues would become easier to solve.
最后，还有战略层面的考量。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与俄罗斯的柴油交易凸显了他在乌克兰问题上与英国的深刻分歧。美国总统还一直在削弱人们对北约联盟未来的信心。英国人知道，他们的未来安全很可能取决于与欧洲盟友更紧密地合作。如果英国身处欧盟，并且能够自动获得共同的欧洲国防支出，这种合作将会容易得多。
Finally, there is the strategic case. US President Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia has underlined his profound differences with Britain over Ukraine. The US president has also steadily undermined faith in the future of the NATO alliance. The British know that their future security is likely to depend on working more closely with European allies. That would be significantly easier if Britain were inside the EU - and had automatic access to common European defence spending.
但事实上重新加入欧盟可能是一个令人望而生畏的过程。英国此前所享有的旧安排——特别是预算返还——将不再提供。脱离申根免边境区和单一欧洲货币的选择权也将不再被视为理所当然。货币和边界问题在英国的辩论中仍然是非常敏感的议题。
But actually rejoining the EU could be a daunting process. The old deal that Britain had before - in particular the budget rebate - would not be on offer. Opt-outs from the Schengen border-free zone and from the single European currency could no longer be assumed. Both currency and borders remain very sensitive issues in the British debate.
伯纳姆有理由担心，支持重新加入欧盟的软性多数可能会动摇，因为人们将逐渐意识到这实际上意味着什么。尽管马克龙发表了鼓励性的言论，但伯纳姆的一些关键顾问对法国特别警惕——他们认为法国在对待英国的态度上是欧盟国家中最为强硬的。甚至有人担心会重演1960年代的情景，当时夏尔·戴高乐阻止了英国首次申请加入欧盟。
Burnham would have reason to fear that a soft majority in favour of rejoining the EU would fall away, as the reality of what that entails became apparent. Despite the encouraging words from Macron, some of Burnham’s key advisers are particularly wary of France - which they regard as easily the most hardline of the EU nations in its attitude to Britain. Some even fear a replay of the 1960s, when Charles de Gaulle blocked Britain’s first application to join the EU.
如果英国申请重新加入欧盟，将进行评判的法国也将不再是马克龙和莱斯克尔的法国。明年总统选举中，如果玛丽娜·勒庞获胜，可能会以不可预测的方式改变关于英国重新加入欧盟的辩论。
The France that would sit in judgement on a British application to rejoin the EU would also no longer be the country of Macron and Lescure. A victory for Marine Le Pen in next year’s presidential election might change the debate about British re-entry in unpredictable ways.
如果勒庞使欧盟陷入混乱——或者把法国拉向极右翼——那么对英国来说，重新加入欧盟可能看起来吸引力下降。法国或欧元区其他地区债务危机的威胁也可能让欧盟显得 weniger 有吸引力。
If Le Pen plunged the EU into chaos - or dragged France to the far right - then rejoining might seem like a less attractive option for the UK. The threat of a debt crisis in France or elsewhere in the Eurozone might also make the EU seem less attractive.
另一方面，欧元区之外，英国本身可能比法国更容易受到债券市场的冲击。而勒庞要求削减部分欧盟权力的主张，也让人联想到英国传统的立场。一个不再致力于“日益紧密联盟”的松散欧盟，甚至可能让英国更容易重新加入。
On the other hand, outside the Eurozone, Britain itself might be even more exposed to the bond markets than France. And some of Le Pen’s demands for a rollback of some EU powers are reminiscent of the traditional British position. A looser EU that was no longer driving towards “ever closer union” might even be easier for Britain to rejoin.
欧盟及其成员政府必须回答的更大问题是——他们真的希望英国回归吗？即使答案是“是”，他们又是否愿意投入实现这一目标所需的时间和精力？
The bigger question that the EU and its constituent governments have to answer is - do they really want Britain back? And even if the answer to that is ‘Yes’ - are they prepared to invest the time and energy required to make it happen?
脱欧留下的创伤才刚刚开始愈合。欧洲人也希望看到英国内部达成稳定共识的证据。谈判一份重新加入条约，却看到尼格尔·法拉奇上台并将其撕毁——这对所有相关方来说都是一场噩梦。
The scars left by Brexit have only just begun to heal. The Europeans will also want evidence of a settled consensus in Britain. Negotiating a re-entry treaty - only to have Nigel Farage come to power and rip it up - would be a nightmare for all concerned.
另一方面，英国重新加入欧盟所带来的吸引力也十分可观。就在布鲁塞尔在华盛顿和莫斯科备受轻视之时，英国投票决定重新加入欧盟，将是对欧洲项目未来的有力信任投票。
On the other hand, the attractions for the EU of Britain rejoining are also considerable. At a time when Brussels is scorned in Washington and Moscow, a British vote to rejoin the club would be a powerful vote of confidence in the future of the European project.
对欧洲人而言，如今的世界比2016年英国投票决定脱欧时更加危险。英国重新加入将为欧盟带来一些经济和军事上的分量——而欧盟正是需要这些。与许多其他潜在成员国不同，英国也将成为欧盟预算的重要贡献者。
The world is also a much more threatening place for Europeans than it was in 2016, when Britain voted to leave. Renewed UK membership would add some economic and military weight that the EU could certainly do with. Unlike many other potential member states, the British would also be substantial contributors to the EU budget.
除了逆转脱欧所涉及的艰巨技术谈判之外，真正关键的是更大的战略问题：双方是否都认为英国重新加入欧盟符合共同利益？如果答案是明确的“是”——那么这不仅可以实现，而且应该实现。
Beyond the difficult technical negotiations involved in reversing Brexit, it is the bigger strategic question that really matters. Do both sides see a common interest in Britain rejoining the EU? If the answer to that is a clear yes - then it can and should happen.