软银承诺在其创纪录的110亿美元垃圾债券发行中提供史上最高收益率，这凸显了首席执行官孙正义在担忧市场可能过热之际，为其“All in”押注人工智能的策略寻求回报所承受的压力。
SoftBank’s promise to pay its highest-ever yields in a record $11 billion junk-bond offering highlights the pressure on CEO Masayoshi Son to secure returns on his all-in bet on AI amid concerns about possible overheating in the market.
软银上个月发行的债务进一步加剧了今年企业借贷的急剧增长，其中包括亚马逊、Alphabet和腾讯等大型公司的债券销售。
The SoftBank debt issuance last month added to a sharp surge in corporate borrowing this year, including major bond sales from Amazon.com, Alphabet and Tencent.
孙正义的投资规模尤其引人注目，其中包括对ChatGPT开发商OpenAI总计646亿美元的支持，这使得这家科技与投资集团成为人工智能市场情绪的风向标。
The scale of Son’s investments, which include backing totalling $64.6 billion for ChatGPT maker OpenAI, in particular, has made the technology-and-investing conglomerate a bellwether for AI sentiment.
在担忧软银投资组合过度集中以及人工智能公司支出能否迅速带来回报的背景下，这些新投资如今正受到分析师和投资者更严格的审视。
Those fresh investments are now coming under sharper scrutiny by analysts and investors amid worries about the degree of concentration in SoftBank’s portfolio and whether a payoff from the expenditures by AI companies will come soon enough.
软银一位高管向路透社表示，此前该公司曾出售英伟达和美国T-Mobile的股份以资助其投资，但现在则通过高达9.75%的创纪录收益率进行借贷，以保留其认为会增值的资产。
SoftBank previously sold shares in Nvidia and T-Mobile US to fund its investments, but it is now borrowing at record yields of up to 9.75% in order to retain assets that it believes will appreciate, a senior SoftBank executive told Reuters.
管理愿景基金的软银投资顾问公司首席执行官亚历克斯·克拉维尔表示：“我们之所以大量借贷，主要是因为我们不想出售那些我们认为价值会持续上涨的资产。”
“We’ve borrowed money in large part because we don’t want to sell assets that we believe will keep rising in value,” said Alex Clavel, CEO of SoftBank Investment Advisers, which manages the Vision Funds.
继成功押注中国科技巨头阿里巴巴和芯片设计公司Arm之后，萨姆·奥特曼领导的OpenAI已成为孙正义最新投资策略的核心投资。
Sam Altman’s OpenAI is the core investment in the latest iteration of Son’s investment strategy, following lucrative bets on Chinese tech giant Alibaba and chip designer Arm.
克拉维尔表示：“鉴于OpenAI至今的增值情况，9.75%的收益率仍然非常合理。”
“Given OpenAI’s appreciation to date, 9.75% is still very reasonable,” Clavel said.
自2023年上市以来，Arm的估值已增长五倍。软银旗下私人人工智能投资组合中的其他公司若能进一步上市，将有助于明确其价值，并更轻松地实现资产变现，以支持后续投资活动。
Arm’s valuation has grown fivefold since it floated in 2023 and further listings from SoftBank’s private AI portfolio would clarify their value and more easily allow the assets to be monetised for additional investment activity.
奥特曼曾表示，出于对人工智能安全性的担忧，OpenAI今年不会上市。同时，该公司还面临竞争对手Anthropic、大型云服务商以及低成本中国实验室的竞争。
Altman has said OpenAI will not go public this year, citing safety concerns about AI. It also faces competition from rival Anthropic and hyperscalers, as well as low-cost Chinese labs.
软银此前“就像在赌桌上押一堆数字。现在是红或黑，要么输光，要么赢光”，MST Financial 分析师 David Gibson 表示。
SoftBank was previously “betting on a bunch of numbers at the roulette table. Now it’s red or black, either lose everything or gain everything,” MST Financial analyst David Gibson said.
AI 相关融资受到更严格审查 软银将为其上月发行、2034 年到期的债券支付有史以来最高的票息 9.75%。这一回报率与 Alphabet 在 8 月发行、2033 年到期、票息为 5.2% 的债券形成对比。
INCREASED SCRUTINY OF AI-RELATED FUNDRAISING SoftBank will pay its highest-ever coupon of 9.75% on a bond issued last month that matures in 2034. That return compares with Alphabet offering 5.2% for a bond issued in August that matures in 2033.
软银股价曾在 6 月飙升至历史最高点 8,632 日元，但此后已下跌 38%；与此同时，其信用违约掉期（CDS）点差——即为防范债务违约或其他信用事件而投保的成本——在同一时期内上升了 24%。
SoftBank’s shares surged to a record high of 8,632 yen in June, though they have fallen 38% since then, while its credit default swap spreads – the cost to insure its debt against a default or other credit event – jumped 24% over the same period.
分析人士表示，软银的高收益率反映了投资者对其风险以及其在大额头寸上的集中度的看法。
SoftBank’s higher yields reflect investor perceptions of their risk and concentration in large positions, analysts say.
“这些赌注远超我们曾见过的规模，”Asymmetric Advisors 的 Amir Anvarzadeh 表示，他建议做空该股票。
“The bets are much bigger than we’ve ever seen,” said Amir Anvarzadeh of Asymmetric Advisors, who recommends shorting the stock.
马尔堡固定收益投资组合经理 James Athey 表示，鉴于当前点差水平偏紧，该基金在信贷周期的这一阶段不会配置高收益债券。
James Athey, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Marlborough, said the fund was not allocating to high-yield bonds at this stage of the credit cycle, given current tight spread levels.
“软银如此激进、如此集中、如此all-in，我认为我们无论如何也不会首先考虑投资它，”他说。
“SoftBank is so aggressive, so concentrated and so all-in, I don’t think we’d be looking there first anyway,” he said.
然而，Clavel 表示，软银对 OpenAI 的支持反映了它们深厚的业务联系。
Clavel, however, says SoftBank’s OpenAI backing reflects their deep business ties.
“我们视 OpenAI 为合作伙伴，正在建立一种既能带来战略价值又能实现财务回报的关系，”他说。
“We see OpenAI as a partner, building a relationship that can deliver strategic value as well as financial returns,” he said.
路透社此前报道，OpenAI 也是数据中心公司 SB Energy 的投资者和客户，而软银正考虑对 SB Energy 进行上市，并可能寻求 500 亿美元的估值。
OpenAI is also an investor in and customer of data centre company SB Energy, which SoftBank is looking to list and may seek a valuation of $50 billion, Reuters has reported.
“软银正在利用人们对 AI 驱动型企业的过度兴奋，为相对较低的收入赋予非常高的估值，并试图从中获利，”MST 的 Gibson 就潜在估值如此表示。
“SoftBank is taking advantage of hyper-excitement around AI-driven businesses, applying very high valuations for relatively low revenues, and they are looking to capitalize,” said MST’s Gibson of the potential valuation.
儿子的投资记录参差不齐——他对中国科技巨头阿里巴巴的投资是一次重大成功，但他也向亚当·纽曼的WeWork投入了160亿美元，而该公司最终破产。
Son’s bets have a mixed track record – his investment in Chinese tech giant Alibaba was a major success, but Son also directed $16 billion to Adam Neumann’s WeWork, which ultimately went bankrupt.
其他挫折还包括：随着各国央行在2022年上调利率，其投资价值出现暴跌。
Other setbacks included a crash in the value of its investments as central banks moved to hike rates in 2022.
“OpenAI迄今的价值增长远远超过了我们2021年老基金的损失，”克拉韦尔说。
“OpenAI’s value appreciation to date far exceeds the losses in our 2021 vintage investments,” Clavel said.
数十年来，孙正义在市场的起伏中前行，将软银打造成一家规模达30万亿日元（1899亿美元）的公司。
Over the decades, Son has navigated market peaks and troughs to build SoftBank into a 30 trillion yen ($189.9 billion) company.
“被定价意味着AI有效接管了人类大脑目前承担的大部分工作，这将彻底改变职场形态，”晨星高级股权分析师丹·贝克说。
“Being priced in is a massive transformation of the workplace with AI effectively taking over a big chunk of what gets done with human brains now,” said Morningstar senior equity analyst Dan Baker.
“如果这件事得以推进，很难想象他们的投资不会非常成功，”他说。
“If that goes ahead it’s hard to see their investments not being very successful,” he said.