这是《中东快报》的介绍，这是一份每周发行的新闻通讯，我们的通讯员将在其中审视一个处于世界事务中心的地区的战争、政治和经济。请订阅《中东快报》。
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回到2018年——如今那感觉就像一个世纪以前——我曾写过一篇关于中东冲突如何重塑该地区天空的文章。卡塔尔的封锁迫使卡塔尔飞机只能绕道阿拉伯半岛飞行；叙利亚的内战使该国领空对许多航空公司禁飞。事后看来，那些时候其实很简单。
Back in 2018—which now feels like a century ago—I wrote a piece about how conflicts in the Middle East were reshaping the region’s skies. The blockade of Qatar forced Qatari planes to take circuitous routes around the Arabian peninsula; the civil war in Syria made that country’s airspace off-limits to many carriers. In hindsight, those were simple times.
过去一周胡塞武装对利雅得国际机场的袭击，首先是一场人道主义悲剧。至少有17人死亡，300多人受伤，死伤者包括当地人（其中一人是一名飞行员）和外国人。沙特国营媒体发布的一段视频显示，导弹袭击发生时，乘客正排队登机。许多人身着伊赫拉姆服——穆斯林朝拜者所穿的简朴长袍。
The Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s international airport over the past week are, first and foremost, a human tragedy. At least 17 people were killed and more than 300 wounded, a mix of locals (one of them a pilot) and foreigners. A video released by Saudi state media showed passengers queuing up to board a plane as the missiles struck. Many were dressed in the ihram, the simple garment worn by Muslim pilgrims.
袭击发生时，我正在利雅得（而且可能还要在这里待一段时间，因为机场目前已关闭）。自10月10日那次最致命的袭击以来，我一直反复听到两个问题。为什么没有像海湾战争期间那样发送手机预警，提示即将来袭的炮火？为什么在胡塞武装近一个月的威胁以及导弹和无人机袭击之后，机场仍然开放？
I was in Riyadh when the attacks happened (and may be here for a while, since the airport is now closed). In the days since the deadliest strike, on October 10th, I have repeatedly heard two questions. Why were there no mobile-phone alerts of incoming fire, as there had been earlier in the Gulf war? And why was the airport still open after almost a month of Houthi threats and missile-and-drone strikes?
第一个问题其实有答案，尽管听起来可能很 surreal：显然有人抱怨这些预警很烦人。看来这些预警已经从昨晚开始恢复了。我手机在晚上9点左右突然尖叫起来，就在我听到利雅得上空三声巨响之前——那声音更像是拦截而非撞击。至于第二个问题，目前尚无答案（沙特政府向来不重视透明度）。但这触及了该地区更广泛的一个担忧。
The first question has an answer, however surreal it may seem: apparently people complained that the alerts were a nuisance. They seem to have been reinstated as of last night. My phone blared at 9pm, shortly before I heard three booms over Riyadh, which sounded like interceptions rather than impacts. As for the second question, there is no answer yet (the Saudi government is not big on transparency). But it touches on a larger concern for the region.
航空业在海湾地区是一项重要产业。迪拜是全球国际客运量最大的机场。世界上两家最大的航空公司总部设在该地区。沙特阿拉伯正计划对利雅得机场进行大规模扩建，去年他们还推出了一家新的国有航空公司，希望与阿联酋航空和卡塔尔航空竞争。海湾航空公司也承运大量货物。今年，由于霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，它们成为了一条重要的生命线。
Aviation is big business in the Gulf. Dubai is the world’s largest airport by international passenger traffic. Two of the world’s biggest airlines are based in the region. The Saudis are planning a massive expansion of Riyadh’s airport, and last year they launched a new state-owned carrier that hopes to compete with Emirates and Qatar Airways. Gulf airlines also carry lots of cargo. They have been an important lifeline this year amid the disruptions to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.
但如今，在该地区飞行从未如此复杂。自二月战争爆发以来，海湾航空公司一直避开伊朗领空。大多数航班也尽量绕开伊拉克。如果你今年从海湾机场向西飞行，你的飞机很可能使用了经过沙特阿拉伯领空的走廊。这增加了时间和成本——飞往欧洲和北美的航班往往比原计划多飞1000公里——但此前还能应对。
But flying in the region has never been more complicated. Since the start of the war in February, Gulf carriers have avoided Iranian skies. Most flights steer clear of Iraq as well. If you have flown west from a Gulf airport this year, your plane probably used a corridor through Saudi airspace instead. This added time and cost—flights to Europe and North America are often 1,000km longer than they ought to be—but it was manageable.
然而现在，监管机构对这条航路也提出了担忧。欧洲航空安全局敦促航空公司避开沙特阿拉伯领空的大片区域。美国监管机构则建议飞行员谨慎操作。危险不仅限于机场。在空中穿梭的导弹可能对航行在其上的飞机构成威胁。试图拦截这些导弹的地面防空系统同样危险——正如我们在2020年所见，当时伊朗革命卫队击落了一架从德黑兰飞往基辅的客机。
Now, however, regulators have concerns about this route as well. Europe’s aviation-safety agency urged airlines to avoid large chunks of Saudi airspace. America’s regulator told pilots to use caution. The danger is not just to airports. Missiles whizzing through the air pose a danger to planes flying overhead. So do air-defence batteries on the ground trying to intercept those missiles—as we saw in 2020, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot down a passenger jet flying from Tehran to Kyiv.
外国航空公司已经取消了飞往沙特阿拉伯的航班。达美航空原计划本月晚些时候从亚特兰大飞往利雅得开通直飞航班，这将是美国航空公司首条此类航线。如今该航班已被推迟至三月。
Foreign airlines have already cancelled their flights to Saudi Arabia. Delta Air Lines had been due to launch a non-stop service from Atlanta to Riyadh later this month, the first by an American carrier. It has now been postponed until March.
胡塞武装的袭击也可能影响飞往该地区以外目的地的航班。几家欧洲航空公司计划本月晚些时候恢复飞往迪拜的航班——但这些航班需要使用沙特走廊。对于欧洲与亚洲之间的航班，情况更为复杂，因为许多航空公司要么被禁止进入俄罗斯领空，要么自愿避开俄罗斯领空。如果沙特航线被认为不安全，那么剩下的唯一选择就是高加索航线。
Houthi attacks could affect flights to destinations outside the region as well. Several European airlines are scheduled to resume flights to Dubai later this month—but those flights would need to use the Saudi corridor. The map looks even trickier for flights between Europe and Asia, because many airlines are either banned from Russia’s airspace or voluntarily avoid it. If the Saudi route were deemed unsafe, the only one left would be over the Caucasus.
海湾国家曾希望情况能在这个冬天恢复正常，尤其是在他们的机场。但如今他们面临的干扰比以往任何时候都更多。海湾航空的黄金时代已经结束了吗？欢迎将您的想法发送至 middleeastdispatch@economism。
Gulf states had hoped things would be getting back to normal this winter, particularly at their airports. Instead they are facing more disruptions than ever. Is the golden age of Gulf aviation over? Let us know your thoughts at middleeastdispatch@economism.