米兰，10月14日 - 油气价格的最新上涨重新引发了人们对欧洲依赖进口燃料的担忧，以及随着冬季临近，这种依赖可能对企业产生的影响。
MILAN, Oct 14 - The latest rise in oil and gas prices has renewed concerns about Europe's reliance on imported fuel and its potential impact on companies as winter approaches.
然而，投资组合经理表示，欧洲上市公司整体处境与2022年截然不同。当时，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后天然气价格飙升，引发了人们对经济衰退和竞争力的担忧。能源在总成本中的份额较低“当我们审视欧洲的大型上市公司时，它们所承受的直接冲击相当可控，”Amundi欧洲股票研究主管Ciaran Callaghan表示。“真正承受冲击的更多是消费者，也许还有一些规模较小的公司……这些公司可能没有那么多元化的能源来源。”
Portfolio managers, however, say European listed companies overall are in a markedly different position than in 2022, when soaring gas prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked recession fears and competitiveness concerns. ENERGY'S LOW SHARE IN TOTAL COSTS "When we look at the big listed companies in Europe, the upfront hit is quite manageable," said Ciaran Callaghan, head of European equity research at Amundi. "It's more consumers who are taking the hit, and maybe some smaller companies ... that probably don't have as diversified energy sources." While chemicals, materials and airline sectors remain exposed, Morgan Stanley estimates direct energy costs are only a low single-digit share of costs for many industrial companies.
虽然化工、材料和航空业仍然面临风险，但摩根士丹利估计，对于许多工业公司而言，直接能源成本仅占其总成本的个位数低位。
Deutsche Bank estimates energy costs make up 1% of sales for STOXX 600 companies overall.
德意志银行估计，能源成本在STOXX 600公司整体销售额中所占比例为1%。指数成分有所帮助根据摩根士丹利的数据，受益于能源价格上涨的行业占MSCI欧洲盈利的36%，而面临风险的行业仅贡献了约6%的盈利。
INDEX MIX HELPS Sectors that benefit from higher energy prices account for 36% of MSCI Europe earnings, compared with about 6% generated by sectors at risk, according to Morgan Stanley. Among the beneficiaries are energy, utilities and banks and those sectors' share of index market capitalisation has risen to 25% from 16% five years ago.
受益的行业包括能源、公用事业和银行，这些行业在指数市值中的占比已从五年前的16%升至目前的25%。
Thomas O'Hara, investment director for European equities at GAM Investments, said European indexes are less vulnerable than in the past because of both their changed composition and companies' greater experience in handling energy-driven inflation.
GAM投资公司欧洲股票投资总监Thomas O'Hara表示，由于指数成分的变化以及公司在应对能源驱动型通胀方面积累了更多经验，欧洲指数如今比过去更不易受冲击。
"This is a market and a real economy that is more experienced in dealing with the challenges of inflation catalysed by higher energy costs," he said.
“这是一个在应对由更高能源成本引发的通胀挑战方面更有经验的市场和真实经济体，”他说。
Energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, steel and autos now account for a smaller share of European indexes, he noted, while banks, which benefit from higher interest rates that typically accompany spells of elevated inflation, represent a much larger weighting.
他指出，化工、钢铁和汽车等能源密集型行业现在在欧洲指数中的份额变小了，而银行则因通常伴随通胀升温的高利率而受益，其权重要大得多。人工智能热潮提振收益Amundi 的 Callaghan 表示，与人工智能相关的支出也在为工业和技术供应商提供支持，这种支持不仅抵消了能源冲击，而且更多。他说：“人工智能正经历巨大的热潮，这正渗透到欧洲市场。”
AI BOOM BOOSTS EARNINGS Amundi's Callaghan said spending linked to artificial intelligence was also providing support for industrial and technology suppliers, more than compensating for the energy shock. "There is a massive AI boom and that's feeding its way into the European market," he said. Direct beneficiaries of AI-related capital spending account for 8% of MSCI Europe earnings.
与人工智能相关的资本支出直接受益者占 MSCI 欧洲盈利的 8%。全球布局有帮助BNP 资产管理公司欧洲股票部门负责人 Gilles Guibout 表示：“欧洲上市公司并不是其国内经济的代理品。” 他补充说：“它们是全球性的。” 许多公司现在在靠近终端市场的地方生产，同时在欧洲以外地区创造了大部分收入，从而降低了对地区成本和供应中断的暴露。
GLOBAL PRESENCE HELPS "European listed companies are not a proxy for their domestic economies," said Gilles Guibout, head of European equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. "They are global." Many firms now manufacture closer to their end-markets while generating a large share of revenue outside Europe, reducing exposure to regional costs and supply disruptions. Europe accounts for 42% of STOXX 600 members' revenues, according to Goldman Sachs.
根据高盛的数据，欧洲占 STOXX 600 成分股收入的 42%。公司已适应变化GAM 的 O'Hara 表示，公司过去四年一直在加强供应链、改进采购合同以及学习如何应对通胀冲击。
COMPANIES ADAPTED GAM's O'Hara said companies have spent the past four years strengthening supply chains, improving procurement contracts and learning how to manage inflation shocks. Europe has also increased LNG imports, developed alternative supply routes and increased use of hedging, renewables and energy-efficiency measures.
欧洲还增加了液化天然气进口，开发了替代供应路线，并增加了对冲、可再生能源和节能措施的使用。
"In 2022, firms were reacting to an energy shock.
万通贝尔高级投资策略师 Mario Montagnani 表示：“2022 年，公司正在应对能源冲击。如今，能源风险管理已成为他们经营业务的结构性部分。”
Today, energy risk management is a structural part of how they run their business," Mario Montagnani, senior investment strategist at Vontobel, said.
根据高盛的数据，自伊朗战争于二月爆发以来，除了消费类行业外，所有行业的盈利均已上调。风险仍然存在然而，埃德蒙·德·罗斯柴尔德资产管理公司欧洲股票经理 Anthony Penel 认为，欧洲公司的韧性有其局限性，并且市场过于自满。
Since the Iran war started in February, all sectors, besides consumer ones, have seen earnings upgrades, according to Goldman Sachs. RISKS REMAIN Anthony Penel, European equities manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, however, sees limits to European companies' resilience and views markets as too complacent.
“他们无法创造奇迹，”他说，警告称，如果高油价和天然气价格持续到2027年，损害将通过通胀、借贷成本上升和需求疲软等间接方式显现。
"They can't do miracles," he said, warning that if high oil and gas prices persist into 2027, the damage would show up indirectly through inflation, higher borrowing costs and weaker demand.