能源公司有望连续第三个季度领跑欧洲盈利增长，因为中东和乌克兰冲突导致的高企能源价格提振了整个行业的利润。
Energy companies are poised to lead European earnings growth for a third straight quarter, as elevated energy prices stemming from the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine bolster profits across the sector.
根据彭博情报数据，MSCI 欧洲能源指数预计将实现每股收益 113% 的增长。该行业单独贡献将超过欧洲整体盈利增长的一半。
The MSCI Europe Energy Index is expected to deliver 113% growth in earnings per share. The sector alone is set to account for more than half of Europe’s overall earnings growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
“炼油产能不足，不仅在欧洲，而且在全球范围内，”彭博情报策略师劳伦特·杜伊耶在接受采访时表示。由此导致的燃料供应紧张使得柴油和汽油价格相对于原油保持高位，提升了炼油利润率，他补充道。
“There is a shortage of refining capacity, not just in Europe, but also worldwide,” BI strategist Laurent Douillet said in an interview. The resulting squeeze on fuel supplies has kept diesel and gasoline prices elevated relative to crude, boosting refining margins, he said.
壳牌公司上周报告了创纪录的炼油利润率，这为本财报季石油巨头的表现提供了早期指引，而埃克森美孚则表示，“异常强劲”的欧洲炼油利润率预计将推动其营销、中游和加工业务第三季度业绩超出预期。
Shell Plc reported record refining margins last week, offering an early indication of what to expect from oil majors this earnings season, while Equinor ASA said that “unusually strong” European refining margins are expected to push third-quarter results for its marketing, midstream and processing business above guidance.
能源公司的盈利增长相比斯托克欧洲600指数其他成分股“显著”偏高，因为“中东局势缓和难以实现”，摩根大通分析师米斯拉夫·马特耶卡领衔的团队在一份报告中指出。
Earnings growth for energy companies is “disproportionately” high compared with the rest of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as “Middle East de-escalation proves elusive,” JPMorgan analysts led by Mislav Matejka said in a note.
尽管能源价格上涨将对其他一些行业构成逆风，包括工业和消费类公司，但分析师预计其短期影响将有限。
Higher energy prices will create a headwind for some other sectors, including industrials and consumer companies, though analysts expect the near-term impact to be limited.
能源公司盈利的提振预计将超过其他地方利润的影响，德意志银行分析师马克西米利安·乌勒尔领衔的团队在一份报告中表示。“更强的能源盈利应能带来总体净正面效应。”除了本季度预期的盈利提振外，投资者还将关注如果油价从当前水平回落，这些利润的可持续性表现如何。
The boost to energy companies’ earnings is expected to outweigh the impact on profits elsewhere, Deutsche Bank analysts led by Maximilian Uleer said in a note. “Stronger energy earnings should result in a net positive effect overall.”Beyond the expected earnings boost this quarter, investors will be looking for signs of how sustainable those profits are if oil prices retreat from current levels.
杜耶说，布伦特原油目前的交易价格在每桶105美元左右，不过市场预计，一旦中东冲突解决，价格可能会回落至50美元左右。“如果是这样，哪些公司拥有正确的商业模式和真正强劲的资产负债表？”彭博行业研究的数据显示，欧洲的盈利增长在本季度将更加集中，能源和人工智能公司将贡献整体增长的70%，尽管它们仅占MSCI欧洲指数的19%。彭博行业研究的数据显示，这两大类公司占上一季度整体盈利增长的61%。
Brent oil is trading around $105 a barrel, though the market expects prices could fall back toward $50 once the Middle East conflict is resolved, Douillet said. “If that is the case, which companies have the right business model and a really strong balance sheet?”European earnings growth will be even more heavily concentrated this quarter, with energy and artificial intelligence companies set to deliver 70% of the overall growth, though they account for just 19% of MSCI Europe, according to BI data. The two groups accounted for 61% of the overall earnings growth last quarter.
彭博行业研究的杜耶表示，对人工智能支出放缓的担忧加剧了市场波动，因为投资者对投资热潮能持续多久产生了疑问。潜在的投资放缓不太可能在本季度的财报中显现，尽管它可能会对2027年或2028年的增长构成压力。
Concerns about a slowdown in AI spending have fueled market volatility as investors question how long the investment boom can last. A potential investment slowdown is unlikely to show up in earnings this quarter, though it could weigh on growth in 2027 or 2028, BI’s Douillet said.