石油巨头将在第三季度实现利润大幅增长，因为美以对伊朗的战争提振了炼油和交易业绩，而投资者将关注他们如何明智地使用现金储备以及是否抵制支出激增。
Oil majors are set to post a big jump in third-quarter profit as the US-Israeli war on Iran has boosted refining and trading results, while investors will monitor how wisely they use their cash piles and whether they resist a spending spree.
自美以空袭自二月开始战争以来，霍尔木兹海峡的严重中断推动能源价格升至多年高位，使交易部门能够从波动中获利。
The severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz since US-Israeli airstrikes began the war in February has pushed energy prices to multi-year highs, allowing trading desks to profit from the volatility.
在过去以繁荣与萧条著称的行业中，石油巨头们这一次都承诺将避免失去成本控制，因为这是全球石油生产商近年来最赚钱的一年。
In a sector notorious in the past for boom and bust, the majors have all promised this time to refrain from losing control of costs in what is one of the highest-earning years for global oil producers in recent memory.
壳牌（SHEL.L）、英国石油（BP.L）和道达尔能源（TTEF.PA）均预计，与去年同期相比，第三季度炼油利润率将增长三到四倍，其中壳牌预测将达到每桶42美元的历史最高水平。道达尔能源预计其炼油和化工业务的现金流将从上一季度翻倍至约40亿美元。
Shell (SHEL.L), BP (BP.L) and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) all expect refining margins to increase three- to fourfold in the third quarter from a year ago, with Shell guiding for a record high of $42 a barrel. TotalEnergies expects cash flow from its refining and chemicals business to double to around $4 billion from the previous quarter.
埃克森美孚表示，本季度炼油利润率的提升有望使下游利润较上一季度增加45亿美元。
Exxon signalled higher refining margins in the quarter could boost downstream profit by $4.5 billion versus the previous quarter.
随着石油巨头们将在本月末公布第三季度业绩，投资者们正在询问他们是否将在盈利异常时期坚持现有的支出计划，RBC资本市场分析师比拉杰·博尔克塔里亚在一份研究报告中写道。
As majors report third-quarter results at the end of the month, investors are asking whether they will stick to their existing spending plans in times of exceptional earnings, wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria in a research note.
到目前为止，雪佛龙和埃克森美孚已将资金用于偿还债务。雪佛龙的投资者将关注其在委内瑞拉的投资及其推进在哈萨克斯坦延长TCO合资企业运营合同的进展，该合资企业正在开发该国最大的油田，分析人士表示。
So far Chevron and Exxon have used the money to pay down debt. Investors in Chevron will monitor investment in Venezuela and its progress toward extending its contract to operate the TCO joint venture in Kazakhstan, which is developing the country's largest oilfield, analysts said.
汇丰银行预计，壳牌将在第四季度宣布35亿美元的股票回购计划，此前壳牌今年早些时候已将回购计划的节奏降至每季度30亿美元。
HSBC expects Shell to announce a $3.5 billion buyback for the fourth quarter, after it reduced the pace of its buyback programme to a quarterly $3 billion earlier this year.
上周，在美孚的交易更新之后，投资银行TPH将BP列为欧洲主要石油公司中的首选。它表示，BP的基础利润可能超过70亿美元，而第二季度为57亿美元，这一增长得益于炼油和天然气营销与交易。
After the major's trading update last week, investment bank TPH called BP its favourite name among European majors. It said BP’s underlying profit could exceed $7 billion, versus $5.7 billion in the second quarter, boosted by refining and gas marketing and trading.
这些现金将用于修复BP的资产负债表。花旗数据显示，BP的净债务与经营现金流比率从2025年底的1.7倍（为五大石油公司中最高）下降至预计第三季度的0.8倍。
That cash is going toward repairing BP's balance sheet. Citi data shows BP’s net debt to operating cash flow falling from 1.7 times at the end of 2025, the highest of the five biggest majors, to an expected 0.8 times by the third quarter.
汇丰表示，BP可能在其第三季度财报期间讨论其未来的资本分配，因为BP预计将在大约一年前提前实现净债务降低的目标，这也得益于今年暂停其股票回购计划。BP已宣布将于12月15日进行战略更新。
BP is likely to discuss its future capital allocation during its third-quarter earnings, HSBC said, as BP hits a target to reduce its net debt about a year early, also helped by pausing its buyback programme this year. BP has flagged a strategy update on December 15.
汇丰的Kim Fustier和Sadnan Ali在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，重点将继续坚定地放在去杠杆化上，资本支出保持稳定，且在2028年前不会恢复股票回购。”
"We believe the priority will remain firmly on deleveraging, with stable capex and no buyback resumption before 2028," said HSBC's Kim Fustier and Sadnan Ali in a note.
壳牌和道达尔将于10月29日发布财报，而BP、雪佛龙和埃克森美孚将于10月30日发布。
Shell and Total are due to report on October 29 while BP, Chevron and Exxon are due on October 30.