全球向电动汽车转型的趋势可能看起来势不可挡，但实现这一目标的道路远非一帆风顺。
The global shift to electric vehicles might appear unstoppable, but the path there is far from straightforward.
根据全球风险管理公司DNV的预测，电动汽车最终将在各地区的乘用车车队中占据主导地位，到2050年，其市场份额将超过90%，覆盖从中国和欧洲到东南亚的各个市场。
Battery electric vehicles will eventually dominate passenger car fleets across every region, according to global risk management firm DNV, and will capture more than 90% share by 2050 in markets ranging from China and Europe to Southeast Asia.
这可能被解读为道路运输中石油需求将快速下降的信号，并值得在多个主要地区对汽油消耗预测进行大幅下调。
That might appear to signal a rapid decline in oil demand for road transport, and merit steep downward revisions in gasoline consumption forecasts across several major regions.
然而，对底层汽车车队库存数据的更深入分析表明，摆脱内燃机（ICE）汽车的转型之路仍将充满曲折。
However, a closer look at the inventory data for the underlying car fleets suggests the journey away from internal combustion engines (ICE) likely has plenty of twists and turns ahead.
燃料前景之所以充满不确定性，是因为一些国家正以比其他国家更快的速度用电动汽车替代内燃机汽车，而另一些国家则在扩大电动汽车车队的同时，仍在销售传统燃油汽车。
The fuel outlook is clouded by the fact that some countries are moving faster than others to replace internal combustion engine cars with EVs, while others are expanding EV fleets alongside sales of conventional cars.
以下六张图表凸显了全球最大车辆市场中电动汽车和燃油汽车车队的关键趋势，旨在帮助能源系统规划者预测未来几十年向电动汽车转变的速度。
Below are six charts that highlight the key trends for electric and combustion-engine fleets across the world's largest vehicle markets to help energy system planners anticipate the rate of change towards EVs over the coming decades.
中国是全球电动化的绝对领头羊，DNV数据显示，该国的电动汽车保有量已经超过世界其他地区的总和，目前约有3750万辆乘用电动汽车在使用。
China is the undisputed heavyweight of global electrification, and the country's electric car fleet is already greater than that of the rest of the world combined, with around 37.5 million passenger EVs in use, DNV data shows.
DNV预测，到2035年，中国道路上的电动汽车数量将超过1.65亿辆，到2050年将突破3.6亿辆。
By 2035, DNV projects that over 165 million EVs will be on China's roads, before the EV total tops 360 million by 2050.
中国庞大的电动汽车制造基础、一体化的电池供应链以及广泛的充电网络持续降低拥有成本并加速普及。
China's vast EV manufacturing base, integrated battery supply chain and extensive charging network continue to drive down ownership costs and accelerate adoption.
北京还推出了购买电动汽车的补贴政策，并对汽车制造商提出要求，以加速远离燃油车辆的转型。
Beijing has also rolled out subsidies for EV purchases and mandates for automakers to accelerate the shift away from fuel-burning vehicles.
这些因素综合作用下，预计将导致中国燃油车库存大幅下降。目前，中国约有3.14亿辆燃油车在使用，但到2040年这一数字可能降至约2.28亿辆，到2050年则可能降至1.07亿辆。
In combination, these factors are projected to drive China's inventory of combustion-engine cars sharply lower. Currently, there are around 314 million ICE cars in use in China, but that figure may drop to around 228 million by 2040 and to 107 million by 2050.
预计在不到三十年内燃油车库存将减少超过2亿辆，这可能令燃料生产商和交易商感到担忧。
That more than 200-million-car drop in projected combustion engine vehicle inventories in under three decades is likely a cause for concern among fuel producers and traders.
但这实际上并不是该时期主要市场中燃油车库存预计下降幅度最大的情况。
But it's actually not the steepest projected decline in combustion engine car stocks among major markets over that period.
到2050年，燃油车库存预计下降幅度最大的地区是欧洲，DNV的预测显示，欧洲传统汽车数量将从目前约2.84亿辆降至约7700万辆。
The region with the largest projected decline in ICE cars by 2050 is Europe, where conventional car numbers are seen contracting from around 284 million currently to around 77 million, DNV's projections show.
旨在减少交通排放的政策，加上充电站网络的持续扩张，正使电动汽车成为购车者更具吸引力的选择。
Policies designed to cut transport emissions alongside a constantly expanding fleet of charging stations are making EVs a more attractive choice among car buyers.
尽管欧洲汽车制造商生产的传统汽车仍然销量超过电动汽车，但电动汽车和混合动力汽车的销售数据表明，随着电动汽车变得更加实惠和便捷，消费者倾向于转向电动汽车。
And even though conventional cars still outsell EVs made by European carmakers, sales numbers of EVs and hybrids suggest that customers are keen to switch to EVs as they become increasingly affordable and convenient.
DNV的数据显示，欧洲目前的纯电动汽车总保有量约为1250万辆，但预计将在2035年增至近7000万辆，到2050年增至1.77亿辆。
Europe's total stock of battery electric vehicles is currently around 12.5 million, but is set to jump to nearly 70 million by 2035 and to 177 million by 2050, DNV's data shows.
北美地区电动汽车及联邦资助充电系统的政策出现逆转，导致近年来电动汽车销售增长受挫，且预计将导致其车队远离燃油车的转型速度慢于其他主要汽车市场。
Reversals in policies around EVs and federally-funded charging systems have dented the sales growth of EVs in North America in recent years, and look set to result in a slower fleet transition away from ICE cars compared to other major car markets.
尽管如此，根据DNV的预测，到本世纪中叶，整体汽车车队构成仍预计将发生重大变化。
Even so, large shifts to the overall auto fleet complexion are expected by mid-century, according to DNV's projections.
北美目前的燃油车车队约为2.9亿辆，传统发动机占总车队的约86%。
North America's fleet of ICE cars is currently around 290 million, and conventional engines account for around 86% of the total car fleet.
然而，到2040年，燃油车预计将达到约2.15亿辆，仅占总车队的30%，这得益于电动汽车采用率的预计激增——从目前约800万辆增长至近8600万辆。
By 2040, however, ICE cars are expected to number around 215 million and account for only 30% of the total fleet thanks to a projected boom in EV uptake from around 8 million cars currently to nearly 86 million.
电动汽车拥有成本的稳步下降以及充电站的便利性提升，预计将推动北美地区电动汽车的采用，尽管相对便宜的汽油供应预计将使燃油车在道路上继续行驶更长时间。
Steadily declining costs of EV ownership alongside improved access to charging stations are expected to drive EV uptake across North America, even though access to relatively cheap gasoline looks set to keep ICE cars on the road for longer.
根据DNV的估计，印度次大陆仍在扩大其燃油乘用车车队，目前估计约为7300万辆，预计将在2040年代末达到约1.65亿辆的峰值。
The Indian subcontinent is still expanding its fleet of ICE passenger cars, which is estimated at around 73 million currently and will top out at around 165 million in the late 2040s, according to DNV's estimates.
有限的充电基础设施和消费者对成本的担忧预计将使该地区电动汽车采用的增长推迟至2050年代。
Limited charging infrastructure and consumer concerns about costs are expected to delay the region's upswell in EV uptake into the 2050s.
尽管如此，电动滑板车和摩托车在该地区已经实现快速增长，这应能促进充电基础设施的持续扩展和电网稳定性的提升，为汽车趋势最终向电动汽车主导的转变奠定基础。
That said, electric scooters and motorcycles are already seeing rapid growth across the region, and should promote continued expansion of charging infrastructure and greater electric grid stability that will underpin the eventual EV-heavy swing in car trends.
东南亚、撒哈拉以南非洲、拉美和中东的汽车买家预计将走类似路径——燃油车销售预计将持续扩张至2040年代，之后电动汽车将成为主导选择。
Car buyers in Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Middle East are expected to follow similar paths, with sales of ICE cars seen expanding into the 2040s before EVs emerge as the dominant choice.
对于燃料市场而言，关键指标可能是燃油车的报废率，而非电动汽车的销售率。
For fuel markets, the critical metric may be the retirement rate of combustion-engine vehicles rather than the sales rate of EVs.
中国和欧洲预计将在目前至2050年间从道路上移除超过3亿辆燃油乘用车，使这两地区成为长期汽油需求破坏的最大来源。
China and Europe appear set to remove well over 300 million ICE passenger cars from their roads between now and 2050, making those regions the largest sources of long-term gasoline demand destruction.
北美也预计将随着电动汽车在车队中占比持续提升而稳步削减燃油需求，尽管其步伐将落后于中国和欧洲。
North America also looks set to steadily erode fuel demand as EVs capture an ever larger share of the vehicle fleet, although the pace will lag that of China and Europe.
然而，燃油车数量的下降可能部分被印度及其他几个新兴市场在未来几十年内传统车辆保有量的持续增长所抵消。
However, those declines in ICE car numbers are likely to be partly offset by continued growth in conventional vehicle ownership across India and several other emerging markets over the coming decades.
因此，运输燃料的前景并非完全一片黯淡。全球电动汽车采用正在快速加速，但燃料需求将越来越取决于发展中国家是否会效仿中国的路径，即用电动汽车取代燃油车，还是继续同时增加电动汽车和传统汽车。
As a result, the outlook for transport fuels is not entirely downhill. Global EV adoption is accelerating rapidly, but fuel demand will increasingly depend on whether developing economies follow China's path of replacing combustion vehicles, or continue adding electric and conventional cars side by side.
对于能源规划者、炼油商和燃料交易商而言，这一区别可能比标题性的电动汽车销售数据更为重要。
For energy planners, refiners and fuel traders, that distinction may prove more important than headline EV sales figures.
目的地显然是一个更加电气化的全球车辆车队，但这一旅程的速度仍然远不确定。此处表达的观点为作者个人观点，作者为路透社专栏作家。
The destination is clearly a more electrified global vehicle fleet, but the speed of the journey remains far less certain. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
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