国际货币基金组织警告称，英国政府需要向公众坦诚，部门削减是为支付更高国防开支所必需的。
The UK government needs to level with the public that departmental cuts will be needed to pay for higher defense spending, the International Monetary Fund warned.
英国面临每年110亿英镑（146亿美元）的账单，以将军费开支提高到国内生产总值3%的目标水平，计划在2030年前实现，政府将在明年的支出审议中阐述其计划。然而，它尚未说明将如何承担这些费用。
Britain is facing an £11 billion ($14.6 billion) annual bill to lift military expenditure to a target of 3% of gross domestic product by 2030, with the government due to set out its plans at next year’s spending review. However, it has yet to explain how it will cover the cost.
国际货币基金组织官员在曼谷举行的年会上表示，借款不是长期解决方案，因为债务水平已经很高。他们表示，预算其他部门的节约是必要的，而增税则可能带来有害的副效应。
IMF officials at the fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok said borrowing isn’t a long-term solution because debt levels are already high. Savings elsewhere in the budget will be required, they said, while tax increases risk damaging side effects.
“关于支出背后社会契约的讨论非常、非常紧迫，”国际货币基金组织财政事务部门主管罗德里戈·瓦尔德斯表示。
“The discussion about the social contract behind spending is very, very urgent,” said Rodrigo Valdes, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department.
自2024年赢得大选以来，削减对工党来说一直难以实现。去年，工党自身议员的叛乱推翻了削减50亿英镑福利开支的计划，引发市场对英国致力于将公共财政置于可控状态的严重担忧。
Cuts have proved difficult for Labour to deliver since it won the general election in 2024. Plans for a £5 billion reduction in welfare were overturned by a rebellion among the party’s own MPs last year, raising serious concerns in markets about the UK’s commitment to bring the public finances under control.
财政事务部副主任埃拉·达布拉-诺里斯表示，面临更大国防需求的政府需要向公众说明“将会出现艰难的权衡”。她说，政治家们必须解释他们的预算优先事项，因为公众需要“了解优先事项是什么，什么事情需要优先处理”。
Era Dabla-Norris, deputy director of the fiscal affairs department, said governments facing greater defense demands will need to tell the public that “there are going to be difficult trade-offs.”Politicians will have to explain their budget priorities, she said, because the public needs to “know what the priorities are, what needs to come first.”
瓦尔德斯表示，税收增加不是一个好选择，因为欧洲和英国已经承担了“相对较高”的税负。“增加更多收入的空间并不容易。最终会导致扭曲。”
Tax hikes aren’t a good option because Europe and the UK already have “relatively high” tax burdens, Valdes said. “The space for a lot more revenues is not easy. It distorts at the end of the day.”
他补充说，任何用于应对紧急军事开支的短期借款最终都必须被抵消。“即使你通过债务来承担临时风险，也必须在某个时刻做好准备，认识到债务永远无法为这部分提供融资。”全球经济正面临严峻的财政挑战，世界债务比率有望在本十年末首次达到GDP的100%，这是自二战结束以来的首次。高债务水平和利率上升导致许多国家的财政状况日益难以维持，尽管IMF强调英国目前正在应对这一问题。
Any short-term borrowing to cover emergency military costs must eventually be offset, he added. “Even if you accommodate temporary risk with debt, you have to be prepared at some point to recognize that debt cannot forever finance this part.”The global economy is facing severe fiscal challenges, with the world debt ratio on course to reach 100% of GDP by the end of the decade for the first time since the end of World War II. High debt levels and rising interest rates have left many countries’ fiscal positions increasingly difficult to sustain, though the IMF stressed that the UK is now addressing the problem.
部分原因在于，投资者要求更高的回报以补偿更大的风险，导致借贷成本上升。
Borrowing costs have been rising in part because investors are demanding higher returns to compensate for greater risk.
瓦尔德斯表示：“各国需要在市场迫使它们行动之前先进行整顿。”“我们今天的信息与过去略有不同。紧迫性的感知需要被不同地理解。过去，我们通常是说需要调整，但要制定一个可信的计划。”
“Countries need to consolidate before markets force them,” Valdes said. “Our message today is slightly different than in the past. The sense of urgency needs to be understood differently. In the past, we usually say we need to adjust but think of a credible plan.”
他说：“IMF现在是说‘紧急’，因为基本条件已经改变。‘我们知道我们有很多债务，并且存在收益率上升的风险，但现在更高的收益率已经成为现实。因此，我们提高了信息的紧迫性。’”
The IMF is “saying now it’s urgent because basically the conditions have changed,” he said. “We knew that we had a lot of debt and there was the risk of higher yields, but now higher yields materialized. So we’ve dialed up the urgency of our message.”