国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，预计英国经济今年的增长将超过此前预期，但能源价格和利率的上涨将在2027年对经济造成冲击。
The UK economy is forecast to grow by more than previously expected this year before higher energy prices and interest rates hit the economy in 2027, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
该组织备受政府关注的最新报告称，英国经济在2026年将增长1.3%，高于7月份预测的1%，随后在2027年放缓。
The organisation's latest report, which is closely watched by the government, said the UK economy would expand by 1.3% in 2026, up from the 1% it predicted in July, before slowing in 2027.
IMF表示，全球各地的经济体已证明对美伊战争引发的能源价格冲击更具韧性，但该组织警告称，这场冲突带来的经济后果仍然“极具不确定性”。
Economies across the world have proved more resilient to the energy price shock caused by the US-Iran war, the IMF said, but it warned the economic fallout from the conflict remained "highly uncertain".
财政大臣约翰·希利表示，政府将在预算案中寻求“为家庭提供一些喘息空间”。
Chancellor John Healey said the government would look to "provide some breathing space" for households in the Budget.
希利正在为安迪·伯纳姆新政府的税收和支出计划做最后准备，该计划将于10月28日公布。
Healey is making the final preparations to Andy Burnham's new-look government's tax and spending plans, which will be announced on 28 October.
政府借贷成本激增，这给财政大臣带来了压力，要求他确保其计划在金融市场眼中是可信的，而英国正是依靠这些市场来借款。
Government borrowing costs have surged, placing pressure on the chancellor to ensure his plans are credible in the eyes of financial markets, which the UK relies on to borrow money.
但IMF首席经济学家西尔瓦娜·滕雷罗周二对英国广播公司（BBC）新闻表示，英国目前的债务管理进程正处于七国集团（G7）主要经济体的领先地位。
But IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro told BBC News on Tuesday that the UK's process of managing its debts is now leading the major G7 economies.
她说：“如你所知，英国已经开始了整合进程，它基本上是与印度并列的突出国家。”
"As you know, the UK has already started the consolidation process and it is the country that basically stands out, along with India", she said.
该组织表示，英国是少数几个有望稳定国家债务水平的主要经济体之一。预计到2031年，英国的年度借贷额也将是七国集团中最低的。
The organisation said the UK is one of the only major economies on course to stabilise levels of national debt. The UK is also projected to have the lowest annual borrowing in the G7 in 2031.
当被问及英国是否是IMF建议减少借贷的国家之一时，滕雷罗表示，该国已经开始了这一进程，并应“坚持下去”。IMF总裁此前曾呼吁全球发达经济体削减借贷并降低债务水平。
Asked if the UK was one of the countries the IMF was telling to reduce borrowing, Tenreyro said that the country had begun the process already and should "stay the course". The head of the IMF has previously called on the world's advanced economies to cut borrowing and reduce debt levels.
虽然IMF的预测受到密切关注，但这些数字只是对未来可能发生情况的预测和最佳估计。由于世界事件的影响，预测往往会出现偏差。
While the IMF's forecasts are closely watched, the figures are only a prediction, a best estimate, of what will happen in the future. Forecasts often turn out to be incorrect due to world events.
此外，财政大臣在预算案中的支出决定将基于英国官方预测机构——预算责任办公室的预测，而非IMF。IMF最新发布的《世界经济展望》中的预测显示：英国今年有望与德国并列成为七国集团中增长第二快的经济体；由于能源价格和长期利率上涨冲击家庭支出和商业投资，英国明年的增长预计将放缓至1.2%；英国今年的通胀率预计平均为3.3%，IMF已将明年通胀率的预测上调至2.8%。
Also, the chancellor's spending decisions at the Budget will be based on predictions from the UK's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, not the IMF. The predictions in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook suggest: the UK is expected to have the second-fastest growing economy in the G7 this year along with Germany UK growth is set to slow next year to 1.2% as higher energy prices and long-term interest rates hit household spending and business investment UK inflation is expected to average 3.3% this year, and the IMF has increased its forecast for inflation next year to 2.8%.
IMF表示，尽管中东地区战事持续，但在人工智能投资激增的推动下，全球经济正在“展现韧性”。
the IMF said the global economy was "proving resilient" despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, helped by the investment surge in AI.
希利承认，中东和欧洲的战争正在“冲击英国和世界各地的人民”，但他补充说，“英国经济正展现出强大的国际韧性”。
Healey acknowledged that wars in the Middle East and Europe were "hitting people in the UK and around the world", but added that "Britain's economy is showing strong international resilience".
当经济增长时，企业往往会增加投资，创造更多就业机会，人们平均而言往往会感觉生活更好。如果经济停滞或萎缩，情况则可能相反。
When the economy is growing, businesses tend to invest more, more jobs are created and people, on average, tend to feel better off. The opposite can occur if the economy stagnates or shrinks.
英格兰银行前副行长霍华德·戴维斯爵士对BBC表示，IMF的增长预测“比预期的要好”，但他指出，对于2027年的预测仍然“更为悲观”。
Sir Howard Davies, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, told the BBC the IMF's growth forecast was "better than it might have been", but noted that for 2027 it remained "more pessimistic".
他补充说：“我们仍在缓慢增长。这几乎就像是在说我们正在赢得一场慢速自行车比赛，因为其他人倒退的速度比我们更快。”
"We're still growing slowly. It's almost like saying we're winning a slow bicycle race here because other people are going backwards a bit more rapidly than we are," he added.
霍华德爵士表示，在谈到全球经济时，英国只是“一个小插曲”，而IMF更关注美国在其债务堆积上增加了多少负担。
Sir Howard said the UK was "a bit of a sideshow" when it comes to the global economy and the IMF was more focused on how much the US is adding to its debt pile.
他说：“这正是给全球利率带来压力的原因，也是影响我们的原因。除非美国对其赤字采取行动，否则我们可以预期利率会更高，这当然会增加我们的债务利息成本。”
"That is what is putting pressure on interest rates all over the world and that is what is affecting us as well. Unless the US does something about its deficit, we can expect interest rates to be higher, which of course increases our debt interest costs," he said.
他补充说，IMF在预测中给予了英国税收增长的信用，而这些税收最终可能并不会真正实施。
He added that the IMF was giving the UK credit in its forecast for tax rises which it might not end up actually putting through.
经济学家指出，希利面临着必须筹集350亿英镑的压力，以避免削减公共支出，同时在首次预算案中履行国防承诺。
Economists have suggested Healey faces having to find £35bn to avoid cuts to public spending while meeting defence promises in his first Budget.
周二，决议基金会呼吁财政大臣“修复”公共财政，但表示需要为那些“难以负担取暖费”的人提供针对性支持。
On Tuesday, the Resolution Foundation called on the chancellor to "make repairs" to the public finances, but said well-targeted support was needed for those "struggling to heat their homes".
保守党影子财政大臣安德鲁·格里菲斯表示，如果希利在预算案中“寻求更多的增税”，“他就是在选择更缓慢的增长，而劳动人民将为此买单”。
Andrew Griffith, Conservative shadow chancellor, said if Healey "reaches for more tax rises" in his Budget, "he is choosing slower growth and working people will pay for it".
