英国国债收益率最近创下数十年来的新高，财政大臣约翰·希利可以在本月晚些时候面临棘手的首份预算之前，抓住一丝慰藉。
With UK bond yields recently racking up fresh multi-decade highs, new Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey can seize on a crumb of comfort ahead of a tricky first budget later this month.
尽管投资者要求的利息成本高昂，但自疫情以来，该国的债务规模一直保持惊人稳定，且按国民生产总值的比例计算，远低于曾经令人担忧的官方预测。
Despite the hefty interest costs demanded by investors, the country’s debt pile has been remarkably stable since the pandemic and, when measured as a share of national output, is well below the once-dire official projections.
英国甚至在周二被国际货币基金组织单独点名表扬，因为它开始加强财政状况，而许多其他国家仍在面临巨额赤字。IMF首席经济学家西尔瓦纳·特内雷罗表示，英国是“基本脱颖而出的国家”，因为它正在制定一条降低借贷的路径，她敦促希利“继续前行”，沿着其前任的计划前进。
The UK was even singled out for praise by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday for starting to shore up its finances, as many others continue with hefty deficits. IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro said Britain is the “country that basically stands out” for plotting a path to bring down borrowing, urging Healey to “stay the course” with his predecessor’s plans.
在其《世界经济展望》报告中，IMF预计今年预算赤字将从国内生产总值的估计3.8%降至2031年的1.4%，这是七国集团中降幅最大的国家。
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF sees the budget deficit dropping from an estimated 3.8% of GDP this year to 1.4% in 2031, the largest decline of any Group of Seven nation.
出人意料的债务稳定情况源于对英国经济表现的一系列追溯性上调，以及通胀推高税收收入、通过名义国内生产总值水平帮助债务方程的效应。
The explanation for the surprisingly stable debt situation lies in a string of retrospective upgrades to the UK economy’s performance, as well as the effect of inflation pushing up tax receipts and helping the debt equation through the level of nominal GDP.
8月份，净债务占国内生产总值的93.8%，相比工党在2024年中上台时略有下降，且低于疫情期间超过98%的峰值。2022年秋季和2023年春季，预算责任办公室曾担忧，到此时债务仍将维持在国内生产总值的约100%。
At 93.8% of gross domestic product in August, net debt is marginally lower than when Labour took power in mid-2024 and below the Covid highs of more than 98%. In the autumn of 2022 and spring of 2023, the Office for Budget Responsibility feared debt would still be at around 100% of GDP at this point.
“更高的通胀会降低政府债务的实际价值，同时以名义形式增加税收收入，从而以名义形式减少赤字，”国家经济和社会研究所副所长斯蒂芬·米拉德说道。
“Higher inflation reduces the real value of government debt while also increasing tax revenue in nominal terms and, so, reducing the deficit in nominal terms,” said Stephen Millard, deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
然而，从这种组合中受益的财政大臣们大多屈服于政治压力，向个人和企业提供减税或补贴。
Still, the chancellors that have benefited from this combination have largely succumbed to political pressure for giveaways to both individuals and businesses.
根据伯恩银行（Berenberg）英国经济学家安德鲁·威沙特（Andrew Wishart）的说法，税收增加“总体上未能转化为赤字缩小，因为各届政府将这笔意外之财用于支出。”他指出，保守党财政大臣杰里米·亨特（Jeremy Hunt）实施了减税，随后在希利（Healey）的工党前任瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）时期出现了更大规模的支出。
Higher tax receipts have “generally failed to translate into a narrower deficit as various administrations spent the windfall,” according to Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Berenberg. He cited Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s tax cuts and then heavier spending under Healey’s Labour predecessor Rachel Reeves.
虽然债务的起点比想象中更好，但其走势对希利来说可能更令人担忧。到此时，英国预算责任办公室（OBR）曾预计债务将呈下降趋势。
While the starting point for debt is better than had been imagined, its trajectory may be more concerning for Healey. By this point, the OBR expected it to be heading downward.
“如今的预期是，债务将在平稳之前继续上升，”牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）首席英国经济学家安德鲁·古德温（Andrew Goodwin）表示，“这主要是因为连续几届政府选择放缓原定的紧缩计划。”在其最新预测中，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，今年国内生产总值（GDP）的债务比例为102%，将在2027年升至102.5%，随后在2031年降至100.2%——在七国集团（G7）中仅次于德国，排名第二低。
“Now the expectation is that debt will rise further before flattening off,” said Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, “largely because successive government have opted to scale back planned tightening.”In its latest forecasts, the IMF sees gross debt climbing from 102% of GDP this year to 102.5% in 2027 before dropping to 100.2% in 2031 — the second-lowest in the G7 after Germany.