希利作为财政大臣提交首份预算案的任务或许并不令人羡慕，但他绝不能怪罪前任。在增长、财政整顿和市场情绪方面，雷切尔·里夫斯和前首相基尔·斯塔默留给了他一副不错的牌。国际货币基金组织预计，英国经济今年将增长1.3%，增速在七国集团中排名第二。
Healey’s job of presenting his first budget as chancellor of the Exchequer may not be enviable, but the one person he cannot blame is his predecessor. In terms of growth, fiscal consolidation and market sentiment, Rachel Reeves and former Prime Minister Keir Starmer left him a decent hand to play. The International Monetary Fund expects the British economy to expand by 1.3% this year, the second-fastest rate in the Group of Seven.
在财政管理方面，普遍认为英国颇为突出。国际货币基金组织预测，到2031年，英国的借贷需求将在七国集团中最低；据该组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃称，英国是“唯一一个果断采取行动减少债务和赤字的国家”。收益率触及1998年以来的高位——但对英国债券的需求依然旺盛。债务管理办公室8月发行10年期英国国债时，投标额超过发行量的3.6倍，需求强劲程度创2020年4月以来新高。
On fiscal management, there’s broad agreement that the UK is something of a standout. The IMF predicts its borrowing will be the lowest in the G7 by 2031; it is, according to the fund’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, the “one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively.”Yields are hitting highs they haven’t seen since 1998 — but there’s still appetite for UK debt. When the Debt Management Office sold 10-year gilts in August, bids were more than 3.6 times the amount on offer, the strongest demand since April 2020.
因此，在这份预算案中，希利的任务不是修补，而是安抚。到目前为止，首相安迪·伯纳姆的政府与基尔·斯塔默政府的主要区别，在于其投射出的乐观基调。财政大臣绝不能屈服于诱惑——内阁同僚肯定在怂恿他——把通过两年沉闷的财政责任积累的公信力挥霍一空，以进一步助推乐观情绪。市场会看穿这一点，最终选民也会看穿。相反，他应利用伯纳姆设定的基调，展示这届政府有信心维护甚至提升增长。
In this budget, therefore, Healey’s task is not repair but reassurance. So far, the main difference between Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government and Keir Starmer’s has been in the tone of optimism it projects. The chancellor must not give in to the temptation – urged on him, I’m sure, by his cabinet colleagues – to burn the credibility accumulated through two years of dour fiscal responsibility to further fuel optimism. Markets will see through that and, in the end, so will voters. Instead, he should use the tone set by Burnham to show this government is confident of its ability to preserve, and even enhance, growth.
这对他能否把事情做对至关重要。巴克莱银行（Barclays Plc）的一项调查发现，64%的英国企业正在等待看希利下周的表态，然后再做投资决定；如果他们相信他提供了一个像样的长期框架，超过八成企业表示很可能增加投资。据经济研究机构财政研究所（Institute for Fiscal Studies）称，企业投资已出现初步复苏迹象，这需要得到保护：2026年上半年，企业投资按季度平均增长2.4%，而截至2025年的十年间，季度平均增幅仅为0.6%。
Much rides on him getting it right. A Barclays Plc survey found that 64% of UK companies are waiting to see what Healey says next week before making investment decisions; if they believe he provides a decent long-term framework, more than eight in ten say they are likely to invest more. Already, there’s a nascent revival in business investment that needs to be protected: It grew by an average of 2.4% a quarter in the first half of 2026, compared with a quarterly average of 0.6% over the decade to 2025, according to economics research group the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
工党展现出的财政整顿承诺无需改变。事实上，也无法改变，因为只有这一承诺才为政府想要做的其他一切腾出了空间。
Nothing need change in the commitment Labour has shown to fiscal consolidation. In fact, nothing can be changed, since it alone provides the space for everything else the government might want to do.
应当调整的是关于这一承诺目的的表述：财政政策，特别是本次预算，应被呈现为延续经济复苏的一种方式，而不应是管理国家衰退这一沉闷剧目的又一集。
What should be adjusted is the message about the purpose of that commitment: Fiscal policy, and this budget specifically, should be presented as a way to extend an economic recovery, rather than as another dreary instalment in the management of national decline.
希利的演讲要想让这一充满希望的信息具有说服力，需要做到三点。
Healey’s speech will need three things to make that hopeful message persuasive.
第一，重申增长是政府的首要目标，并给出一个真实的愿景，说明将如何实现这一目标——无论是通过产业战略、投资复苏还是更好的监管。在这方面，他必须做得比首相迄今为止更好。
First, a reiteration that growth is the government’s main aim, and a real vision for how — whether through industrial strategy, an investment revival or better regulation — it will be achieved. On this, he must do better than his prime minister has so far.
第二，作出伯纳姆式的承诺，以切实改善民生，且不引发债券市场恐慌。希利据称打算宣布的短期家庭能源支持，符合国际货币基金组织（IMF）关于救助的标准。它具有针对性且是暂时的——前提是宣布时附带明确且可信的结束日期。此外，正如我之前所主张的，为小企业削减繁文缛节不需要国库掏钱。如果人们在日常生活中看到一些积极变化，哪怕很小，他们就会愿意相信情况会变好。
Second, a Burnhamite commitment to making people’s lives tangibly better in ways that don’t panic the bond markets. Short-term energy support for households, which Healey reportedly intends to announce, meets the IMF’s criteria for relief. It’s targeted and temporary — if announced with a clear and credible end date. Also, as I have argued before, cutting red tape for small business costs the Exchequer nothing. People will be willing to believe things will get better if they see a few positive changes in their daily life, however small.
最后，希利应当承诺，即使遥远的战争将不安全感带入英国，政府也不会因犹豫、拖延或内斗而让局势恶化。自脱欧以来，这个国家一直因政府想把它带向何方的不确定性而陷入瘫痪——正是这种不可预测性，比任何其他因素都更让投资低于本可达到的水平。
And finally, Healey should promise that, even if insecurity is imported into Britain by distant wars, the government will not make things worse through hesitation, delays or infighting. Ever since Brexit, this country has been crippled by uncertainty about where its governments want to take it — and it is that unpredictability, more than anything else, that keeps investment lower than it could be.
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家已告诫希利必须“坚持既定方针”。换言之，他无需为工党和英国勾画一个激进的新方向；数据表明，过去两年所走的道路是正确的。他演讲需要做的，是让议会、政党和民众对这一事实感到放心。但话又说回来，英国已对悲观厄运论上瘾到如此地步，以至于这项任务或许比里夫斯继承的任务更为艰巨。
The IMF’s chief economist has told Healey that he must “stay the course.”In other words, he doesn’t need to set out a radical new direction for Labour and Britain; the data says the path it’s been on for the past two years is the right one. What his speech needs to do is reassure Parliament, party and people of that truth. But then again, Britain has grown so addicted to doomerism that perhaps that task is even tougher than the one Reeves inherited.