英国新任财政大臣约翰·希利将于10月28日发表他的首份预算，背景是全球借贷成本上升以及伊朗战争导致的能源价格高企。
Britain's new finance minister, John Healey, delivers his first budget on October 28 against a backdrop of rising global borrowing costs and high energy prices due to the Iran war.
“这个预算关乎可信度，”阿伯丁投资公司固定收益投资总监卢克·希克莫尔说。
"This budget is about credibility," said Luke Hickmore, investment director, fixed income, at Aberdeen Investments.
希利“表示财政纪律将是其核心，而 gilt 市场将以此来约束他。坚持计划，收益率可能有下降空间。如果令市场惊讶，账单可能很快到来。”以下是英国市场面临的风险。
Healey "has said fiscal discipline will be at its core, and the gilt market will hold him to that. Stick to the plan and yields might have room to fall. Surprise the market and the bill could arrive quickly." Here is a look at what is at stake for UK markets.
一场残酷的全球债券抛售潮曾在10月短暂将30年期 gilt 收益率推高至6%以上，这削弱了政府的财政缓冲，而该缓冲在3月份仍为240亿英镑（317.8亿美元）。
A brutal global bond selloff that pushed the 30-year gilt yield briefly above 6% in October has eroded the government's fiscal buffer, which stood at £24 billion ($31.78 billion) in March.
经济学家估计，如今这一缓冲空间已降至大约85亿英镑至160亿英镑之间，原因是借贷成本上升推高了债务利息支出。
Economists estimate this headroom now stands between roughly £8.5 billion and £16 billion as higher borrowing costs lift the debt interest bill.
希利面临压力，需要展示他如何在不提高主要税收的前提下遵守财政规则。债券投资者希望得到关于财政纪律的保证。
Healey is under pressure to show how he can meet fiscal rules without raising the main taxes. Bond investors want reassurance over fiscal discipline.
不过，由于政治相对稳定、经济数据改善以及英格兰银行决定暂停 gilt 销售，市场情绪有所好转。
Still, sentiment has improved due to relative political stability, better economic data and the Bank of England's decision to pause its gilt sales.
“英国存在财政风险溢价，但也许看起来没有其他一些国家那么糟，”美国银行全球G10外汇策略主管阿达什·辛哈说。
"There's a fiscal risk premium in the UK, but maybe it looks less bad than some of the other countries," BofA's head of global G10 FX strategy, Adarsh Sinha, said.
英镑对欧元汇率接近16个月高点，看来并未因预算而过度波动。外汇期权市场的交易表明，预算并未塑造成一个关键风险事件，辛哈说。
Sterling, near 16-month peaks against the euro , does not appear too fazed by the budget. Trading in FX options markets suggests the budget is not shaping up as a key risk event, BofA's Sinha said.
“但当然，你永远不想对英国的预算过于自满，因为我们记得之前的预算，而且永远不要说永远不会。”前首相利兹·特拉斯2022年的微型预算宣布大规模减税，引发了债券和英镑的暴跌。
"But of course, you never want to get too complacent with the UK budgets because we have the memory of prior budgets, and never say never." Former Prime Minister Liz Truss' 2022 mini-budget triggered a bond and sterling rout by announcing big tax cuts.
野村证券G10外汇策略主管多米尼克·巴宁表示，他正在关注政府在多大程度上试图利用公共金融机构作为借款工具，这可能会考验其信誉。
Nomura's head of G10 FX strategy, Dominic Bunning, said he was watching the degree to which the government looks to use public financial institutions as vehicles to borrow funds, which could test its credibility.
“这是我以适度担忧程度关注的事情，即这可能会成为英镑的更大负面催化剂，”他说。
"That's something I'm watching with a modest amount of concern about whether that could be more of a negative catalyst for sterling," he said.
由于政府在寻找额外收入以在不实施广泛增税的情况下加强公共财政，银行对任何可能成为税收突击目标的迹象都十分敏感。
As the government looks for additional revenue to shore up its public finances without imposing broad tax rises, banks are sensitive to any signs that they could be targeted for a tax raid.
本月早些时候，英国几家最大银行的高管与希利会面，事后媒体报道称，他们离开时对希利是否计划增加该行业的意外之财税仍没有明确认识。
Senior executives from some of Britain's biggest banks met Healey earlier this month and media reported afterwards that they left with no clear sense of whether he planned to increase a windfall tax on the sector.
截至目前，十月份四大银行股票——汇丰（HSBA.L）、西敏（NWG.L）、劳埃德（LLOY.L）和巴克莱（BARC.L）——的股价已下跌3%至5%。虽然这与其他欧洲银行的情况大致一致，因为全球借贷成本上升，但预算前的紧张情绪也部分导致了这一情况。
Shares of the big four banks - HSBC (HSBA.L), NatWest (NWG.L), Lloyds (LLOY.L) and Barclays (BARC.L) - are down between 3% and 5% in October so far. While this is broadly in line with other European banks given higher global borrowing costs, pre-budget jitters are partly to blame.
房屋建筑商股票（.FTNMX402020）在九月下旬因政府确认将在十月预算中推出新的首次购房者支持计划而飙升，这一举措提振了因需求疲软和可负担性压力而受创的行业。
Housebuilder stocks (.FTNMX402020) surged in late September after the government confirmed plans for a new first-time buyer support scheme in October's budget, boosting a sector battered by weak demand and affordability pressures.
“我们认为这是整个行业进行重新估值所需的主要催化剂，”瑞银分析师安东尼·科德林在计划宣布后表示。
"We believe this is the big catalyst the sector as a whole needed for a re-rating," said RBC analyst Anthony Codling after the plans were announced.
“圣诞节对英国房屋建筑商来说来得早了。”不过，随着抵押贷款利率上升，该行业此后一直面临逆风，预算前的股价涨幅已被抹去。
"Christmas has come early for the UK housebuilders." Still, rising mortgage rates have since acted as a headwind for the sector, with pre-budget share gains being wiped out.
英国首相安迪·伯纳姆上月在一次关键演讲中警告公用事业公司，加强了他对表现不佳的水公司实行公有制的言论。
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham put utility companies on warning in a key speech last month, stepping up his rhetoric on public ownership of underperforming water companies.
伯纳姆还宣布成立英国电网（GB Grid），这是一家新设立的公有网络公司，旨在降低能源成本并加速连接。
Burnham also announced Great British Grid (GB Grid), a new publicly owned networks company, aimed at cutting energy costs and speeding up connections.
“在各项政策公告之后，我们对英国公用事业的前景仍持乐观态度，”摩根大通在一份报告中表示。
"We remain positive on the outlook for UK utilities after various policy announcements," JPMorgan said in a note.
“我们不认为GB电网的公告……对电网公司的增长和价值创造目标构成重大威胁。”英国公用事业板块(.FTUB6510)自伯纳姆的表态以来已上涨近4%；更广泛的市场(.FTLC)基本持平。
"We do not see the announcement of GB Grid ... as a significant threat to the growth and value creation targets of the electricity network companies." Britain's utilities sector (.FTUB6510) is up almost 4% since Burnham's pronouncements; the broader market (.FTLC) is little changed.