英国财政大臣希利无法冒险采取“按部就班”的预算，智库警告称作者：威廉·肖姆伯格 伦敦，10月12日 — — 英国财政大臣约翰·希利在其首份预算中需要通过增税或削减福利支出筹集360亿英镑（约合476亿美元），以抵消通胀对公共服务的冲击并兑现国防开支承诺，一家智库如是警告。
UK's Healey can't risk a 'steady as you go' budget, think tank warns By William Schomberg LONDON, Oct 12 - British finance minister John Healey will need to find £36 billion ($47.6 billion) in tax hikes or welfare cuts in his first budget just to offset the inflation hit to public services and meet a defence spending pledge, a think tank said.
财政研究所（IFS）警告称，10月28日的“按部就班”预算不是一个可行选项，因为希利的前任瑞秋·里夫斯所制定的税收和支出计划已受到伊朗战争引发的通胀上升影响，若不对其进行调整，可能无法获得投资者的信任。
The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned a "steady-as-she-goes" budget on October 28 was not an option because the tax and spending plans set out by Healey's predecessor Rachel Reeves had been impacted by the inflation rise caused by the Iran war and not adjusting them might not be seen as credible by investors.
“容忍某些公共服务在数量或质量上的大幅削减将是一种选择，”IFS主任海伦·米勒表示。
"It would be a choice to tolerate chunky cuts to the quantity or quality of some public services," IFS Director Helen Miller said.
希利和首相安迪·伯纳姆表示，他们将降低生活成本。但他们受到公共财政压力的限制，此外还面临里夫斯在之前两份预算中已实施的超过600亿英镑的增税负担。他们还面临压力，需要明确何时将国防开支提升至GDP的3%。
Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham say they will reduce the cost of living. But they are limited by the strain on the public finances and by more than 60 billion pounds of tax hikes in Reeves' previous two budgets. They are also under pressure to spell out when they will raise defence spending to 3% of GDP.
再筹集360亿英镑的税收相当于将所得税主税率提高3个百分点。
Finding another 36 billion pounds of tax would be equivalent to adding 3 percentage points on to the main rate of income tax.
希利和伯纳姆表示，他们将坚持前政府不提高主要税率的承诺，但预计他们将寻找一些增加收入的途径。
Healey and Burnham say they will stick to the previous government's promise not to raise the main rates of taxation but they are expected to find some ways to increases revenues.
他们还面临压力，需要削减英国不断上升的福利支出，尤其是自冲突在海湾地区爆发以来，政府借贷成本急剧上升之后。
They are also under pressure to reduce Britain's rising welfare spending, especially after a sharp rise in government borrowing costs since the start of the conflict in the Gulf.
IFS表示，如果政府的预算预测机构认为更高的通胀将推动收入增长和税收收入增加，那么这部分额外的债务利息支出以及与通挂钩的福利成本增加，有可能得到抵消。
Much of that extra debt interest bill, and higher inflation-linked welfare costs, could be offset if the government's budget forecasters decide higher inflation will push up earnings growth and income tax revenues, the IFS said.
如果发生这种情况，希利的财政空间——即2029/30财政年度政府日常支出借款与税收收入之间的差距——可能仅会从3月份之前估计的240亿英镑适度下降至约200亿英镑。
If that happens, Healey's fiscal headroom - or the gap between borrowing for day-to-day government spending and tax revenues in the 2029/30 fiscal year - was likely to fall only modestly to around 20 billion pounds from a previous estimate of 24 billion pounds in March.
尽管按历史标准来看这属于较低水平，但该预测仍高于分析师估计的120亿英镑。
While low by historical standards, the forecast was higher than estimates from analysts of 12 billion pounds.
IFS报告基于以下预测：今年通胀平均为3.1%，2027年为3.0%，高于3月份官方预测的2.3%和2.0%。
The IFS report was based on forecasts for inflation to average 3.1% this year and 3.0% in 2027, higher than the official projections of 2.3% and 2.0% made in March.
今年的经济增长可能会从3月份的1.1%上调至1.4%，但明年可能被下调至1.2%，低于之前的1.6%。
Economic growth this year was likely to be revised up to 1.4% from March's estimate of 1.1% but could be cut to 1.2% for next year, down from 1.6%.
希利可能选择将政府财政计划的重大调整推迟至2027年的支出审查进行，届时伊朗战争可能已经结束，借贷成本也可能降低。
Healey might choose to delay big changes to the government's fiscal plans until a Spending Review in 2027, by which time the Iran war might be over and borrowing costs could be lower.
但米勒表示，全球推高政府债务收益率的投资者可能会持保留态度。"你不能把希望作为核心策略，"她说。
But Miller said investors who have pushed up yields on government debt around the world might balk. "You can't have hope as your core strategy," she said.