达沙尼·大卫，汤姆·埃斯皮纳 美国-以色列对伊朗的战争导致的价格飙升，对财政大臣约翰·赫利在编制其首份预算时构成了重大挑战，一家有影响力的智库警告称。
The price spike caused by the US-Israel war in Iran poses a major challenge for Chancellor John Healey as he puts together his first Budget, an influential think tank has warned.
高于预期的通胀可能会侵蚀政府原本计划用于公共服务的支出，这意味着赫利将不得不在削减开支、提高税收或两者兼顾之间做出选择，财政研究所（IFS）表示。
Higher-than-expected inflation could eat into what the government hoped to spend on public services, meaning Healey will have to choose between spending cuts, tax rises, or a mixture of both, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said.
该机构敦促政府确保其支出计划具有可信度，而不是提出不切实际的未来削减方案，以使预算看似平衡。财政部拒绝就“传闻和猜测”发表评论。
It urged the government to ensure its spending plans are credible, as opposed to proposing unrealistic future cuts to make the Budget add up. The Treasury declined to comment on "rumour and speculation".
然而，赫利在本周即将举行的年度国际货币基金组织会议之前表示：“中东和欧洲的冲突正在全球范围内产生影响，导致油价上涨，国内抵押贷款成本增加。”
However, speaking ahead of the annual International Monetary Fund meeting this week, Healey said: "The consequences of conflict in the Middle East and Europe are hitting countries worldwide, leading to higher prices at the pumps and more expensive mortgages at home.
“但英国及其盟友可以共同应对这些挑战。”他表示，他的预算“将在此基础上推进，通过财政纪律帮助实现经济韧性”，并为人们提供“喘息空间”。
"But Britain and our allies can face up to these challenges together." He said his Budget "will build on this approach with fiscal discipline helping to deliver economic resilience" and give people "breathing space".
然而，随着借贷成本上升，政府面临越来越大的压力，需要向金融市场展示其对财务有严格的掌控。
However, the government is under growing pressure to show financial markets that it has a tight grip on finances as the cost of borrowing rises.
财政研究所警告赫利，不要在10月28日的预算演讲中做出他根本无意兑现的任何支出承诺。
The IFS cautioned Healey about making any spending announcements in the 28 October Budget speech he has no intention of honouring.
“一种‘稳健前行’的预算对财政大臣来说根本不是一个可选方案，”财政研究所所长海伦·米勒表示。
"A 'steady-as-she-goes' Budget is not an option available to the chancellor," said IFS director Helen Miller said.
“选择沿用继承下来的税收和支出计划，实际上就是允许通胀使各部门的支出计划偏离轨道。”
"Choosing to stay the course with the inherited tax and spending plans would mean allowing inflation to blow departments' spending plans off course.
“仅仅在预算中笼统地列出他根本无意实施的隐性削减，就会让预算成为一部虚构作品，”她补充道。
"Simply pencilling in implicit cuts that he has no intention of delivering would make the Budget a work of fiction," she added.
美国-以色列对伊朗的战争以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，共同推动了全球能源价格的上涨。这些更高的成本已通过货架和加油站的更高价格转嫁给了客户。
The US-Israel war against Iran and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have together helped drive up energy prices around the world. These higher costs have been passed to customers via higher prices on shelves and at the pumps.
这些战争也导致英国政府债务利息支付成本上升，增加了对希利的压力。
The wars have also contributed to a rise in the cost of UK government debt interest payments, adding to the pressure on Healey.
虽然通胀上升将提升税收收入，但也会侵蚀各部门现金预算的价值，财政研究所（IFS）表示。
Although higher inflation will boost tax revenues, it will also eat into the value of departments' cash budgets, the IFS said.
与其他分析师一样，财政研究所认为，债券市场的近期动荡和通胀上升将使政府在2029-30财年的借款成本预测增加约100亿英镑。
Like other analysts, the IFS thinks recent turbulence on bond markets and higher inflation will add around £10bn to forecasts for the government's borrowing costs in 2029-30.
然而，它仍然预计政府将遵守其自我设定的财政规则——即仅在2029-30财年用于投资项目的借款，并且债务占GDP的比重也在下降——至少通胀推动税收上升这一点有所帮助。
However, it still expects the government to meet its self-imposed fiscal rules - that it will only borrow for investment projects by the financial year 2029-30 and also be reducing debt as a percentage of GDP - not least as inflation pushes up tax revenues.
但它预计这些规则将通过一个更小的缓冲区来实现——称为“余量”——约为200亿英镑。这低于官方预测机构预算责任办公室（OBR）在春季声明时预测的240亿英镑缓冲区。
But it expects those rules to be met by a smaller buffer - known as "headroom" - of around £20bn. That is less than the £24bn buffer predicted at the time of the Spring Statement by the official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
最近的迹象表明，市场对这种程度的余量减少是可以接受的。财政研究所还预计，对家庭的任何“喘息空间”支持将是临时且规模有限的。
Recent indications have been that the markets would be comfortable with that degree of reduced headroom. The IFS also expects any "breathing space" help for households to be temporary and limited in scale.
然而，财政研究所警告称，在如此波动的环境中，其预测存在极大的不确定性。而官方预测——即预算责任办公室（OBR）的预测，财政大臣在制定计划时依赖这一预测——可能会得出截然不同的结论。
However, the IFS warns that in such a volatile environment, its forecasts are exceptionally uncertain. And the official forecast from the OBR - which the chancellor relies on when making his plans - may come to a very different conclusion.
财政研究所认为，为了在通胀上升的情况下维持各部门的预算，政府可能需要在2029-30财年额外筹措250亿英镑。
The IFS reckons that to maintain departments' budgets in the face of higher inflation, the government may need to find an extra £25bn in 2029-30.
这还不包括考虑增加国防支出的雄心。筹集如此巨额资金将意味着显著的税收增加。
That is before consider considering the ambition to raise defence spending. Raising such an amount would point to significant tax rises.
财政大臣不必在本次预算中讨论总支出，也可以选择将此类决定推迟到未来事件中处理 — 例如明年的春季声明或支出审查 — 到那时，经济前景可能会大不相同。
The chancellor does not have to address spending totals in this Budget, and may choose to leave such decisions until future events - for example, next year's Spring Statement or Spending Review - by which time the outlook for the economy could look very different.
但财政研究所（IFS）警告称，继承自前任财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯的支出计划将导致某些部门的预算在几年后无法跟上通货膨胀的步伐。它表示，若不解决这一问题，将对政府计划的可信度产生质疑。
But the IFS warned that the spending plans inherited from the previous chancellor, Rachel Reeves, would mean some departments' budgets would not keep pace with inflation in a few years time. It said not addressing this would cast doubt on the credibility of the government's plans.
然而，以往的财政大臣曾依赖类似策略 — — 在预算中列出不切实际的未来支出计划，以确保当天能够满足财政规则 — — 但随后又会进一步修改这些计划。
However, previous chancellors have relied on a similar strategy of pencilling in unrealistic future spending plans to ensure that they meet the fiscal rules on the day - only to change the plans further down the line.