
英国预算宛如一个塞得满满当当的工具棚:每一任财政大臣都增添一层新架子,却从不清理旧物。新任财政大臣约翰·希利可以从清理杂乱入手。
By The Editors British budgets have come to resemble an overstuffed toolshed: Each finance minister adds a new shelf, and nothing is ever thrown out. New Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey could start by clearing the clutter.
希利将于周三发布其首份预算案。他承担不起再推出一项损害公信力却难增收益的提案。从4月到9月,政府借款达978亿英镑(约合1168亿美元),比预算责任办公室的预测高出60亿英镑。这六个月的债务利息支出为608亿英镑。仅借贷成本上升一项,就可能吞噬希利前任留下的近一半“财政空间”。
Healey will release his first budget on Wednesday. He can’t afford yet another proposal that costs credibility and raises little revenue. Government borrowing from April to September was £97.8 billion ($116.8 billion), £6 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast. Debt interest over those six months was £60.8 billion. Higher borrowing costs alone could eat nearly half of the “headroom” left by Healey’s predecessor.
市场已有反应。本月初,30年期英国国债收益率突破6%,创下1998年以来新高;借贷成本仍居七国集团之首。鉴于英国迫切的需求——尤其是军费的巨大缺口——财政大臣无法切实承诺在减少借款、增加开支的同时还能避免痛苦抉择。但他可以让公共财政变得不那么脆弱。
Markets have noticed. Earlier this month, the 30-year gilt yield exceeded 6%, its highest level since 1998; borrowing costs remain the highest in the Group of Seven. Given Britain’s pressing needs — not least a huge funding gap for the military — the chancellor can’t realistically promise to reduce borrowing, increase spending and avoid painful choices. But he can make public finances less fragile.
在开支方面,一个好的开端是压缩膨胀的健康和残疾福利(针对劳动年龄人群)。自新冠疫情以来,这部分人群的福利开支已增长逾半,且预计将继续攀升。这并非意味着对所有确诊者一刀切地削减,但确实表明需要对丧失劳动能力福利实施更严格的测试,对可能好转的病况进行更多重新评估,并提供真正的返岗激励。两份评估报告将于今秋出炉,限制了希利目前的操作空间。但他可以明确表示,开支不能继续维持疫情后的增速。
On the spending side, a good start would be to deflate ballooning health and disability benefits for those of working age. Spending for this cohort has risen by more than half since the Covid-19 pandemic and is forecast to keep climbing. That doesn’t mean crude cuts to everyone with a diagnosis, but it does suggest tighter tests of incapacity benefits, more reassessments of conditions that may improve and real incentives to return to work. Two reviews are due this autumn, limiting what Healey can do now. But he can make clear that spending can’t keep rising at its post-Covid rate.
税制改革应是第二大当务之急。英国的体制充满了复杂性、扭曲的激励机制和沉重的行政成本,这些都是历届政府不断在工具箱里塞入新的豁免条款和减免措施积累而成的。裹巧克力的饼干征收20%的增值税;大多数其他饼干则免征增值税。热外卖餐通常征收20%增值税,冷外卖餐则零税率。设计不善的政策意味着,一位年收入10万英镑的家长若多赚1英镑,可能会损失数千英镑的育儿福利。诸如此类,不一而足。
Tax reform should be the second imperative. Britain’s system is riddled with complexity, perverse incentives and dead-weight administrative costs that have accrued as successive governments piled new carve-outs and relief measures into the toolshed. Chocolate-covered biscuits carry a 20% value-added tax; most others are VAT-free. Hot takeout meals are generally taxed at 20%, and cold ones zero. Poorly designed policy means a parent earning an extra £1 on £100,000 can lose thousands of pounds in child-care benefits. And so on.
保守党承诺解决其中一些扭曲。但希利也应拿出自己的应对方案。以印花税为例,该税种针对房产交易征收,阻碍人们为工作搬迁。取消这一税种——这是保守党的承诺——可以与改革英格兰的市政税挂钩,后者至今仍基于1991年的估值。这将使政府能逐步将税收重心从交易环节转向经常性财产税。
The Conservatives are pledging to address some of these distortions. But Healey should have his own response. As one example, a stamp duty on property transactions discourages people from moving for work. Scrapping that levy — a Tory pledge — could be tied to reforming England’s council taxes, which are still based on 1991 valuations. That would allow the government to gradually shift taxation away from transactions and toward recurrent property taxes.
在财政收支的另一面,希利也需要增加收入。但向富人或企业家加征更多税收,筹集的资金有限,反而会加速日益严重的财富外流。将所得税各档税率统一上调1个百分点,到2029-30财年每年可增加约110亿英镑收入——足以弥补国防开支缺口,并有助于重建财政缓冲空间。是的,这将违背工党不增加主要税种的竞选承诺。但自党纲发布以来,形势已发生巨变。一个更危险的世界需要金钱成本,希利应当直言不讳。
On the other side of the ledger, Healey also needs to raise revenue. But piling more taxes on the wealthy, or entrepreneurs, will raise little and accelerate a worsening wealth exodus. A 1 percentage-point increase on every rate of income tax would raise about £11 billion a year by 2029-30 — enough to cover the gap in defense spending and help rebuild fiscal room. Yes, that would break Labour’s pledge not to raise the main taxes. But much has changed since the party’s manifesto was written. A more dangerous world costs money, and Healey should say so.
预算通常以新增内容评判优劣;希利的预算应主要以他愿意砍掉什么来评判。整理工具箱未必能赢得后座议员的多少掌声,但会让英国更少脆弱、更有利于增长、更从容应对下一次危机。
Budgets are usually judged by what they add; Healey’s should be judged mainly by what he’s willing to throw out. Tidying the shed won’t win him much applause from the backbenches, but it will leave Britain less fragile, better placed to grow and more prepared for the next crisis.