费萨尔·伊斯拉姆报道：“整顿财政健康”是国际货币基金组织（IMF）在泰国举行的年会上的一个关键信息。
By Faisal Islam "Get your fiscal health in order," is a key message at the the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) annual meeting here in Thailand.
IMF对全球最大经济体的债务感到担忧。它正履行其作为金融监督者的职责，寻找并警示金融脆弱性。
The IMF is worried about the debts of the world's biggest economies. It is doing its job as a watchdog, looking for and warning about financial vulnerabilities.
与此同时，前危机国家的财政部长们正在炫耀，与全球最大经济体（如美国）相比，他们的借贷成本上升幅度很小。
In the meantime, the finance ministers of former crisis countries are boasting about how little their borrowing costs have gone up, compared to the world's biggest economies, such as the US.
在过去24小时内，IMF的高级官员在三个场合赞扬了英国降低年度借贷水平的计划，称其为G7其他国家（包括加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和美国）模式中的一个特例。
On three occasions in the past 24 hours, top IMF officials have praised UK plans to reduce its annual levels of borrowing, as a singular exception to the pattern of the rest of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.
IMF明确决定以不同于这些主要经济体的视角来看待英国，这非常有趣。
The IMF's clear decision to see the UK in a different light to these major economies is very interesting.
“英国实际上是一个在减少债务和赤字方面采取了果断行动的国家，从这个意义上说，我们看到英国享有略好的增长前景，”总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃此前表示。
"The UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively and we see the UK in that sense enjoying a bit of a better growth prospect," managing director Kristalina Georgieva said earlier.
她的言论紧随IMF首席经济学家西尔瓦纳·特雷雷罗之后，后者曾告诉我，英国的借贷削减“脱颖而出”。
Her comments followed those of the IMF's chief economist Silvana Tenreyro who told me that UK borrowing reductions "stand out".
IMF对全球各国经济前景的半年度评估显示，在G7国家中，只有英国在未来几年有严肃的计划来整顿年度借贷，其规模相当于经济体规模的近4%。而美国、德国和日本正在增加借贷；加拿大和意大利则保持借贷水平不变。
The IMF's twice-yearly assessment of global countries' economic prospects showed only the UK among the G7 having a serious plan for consolidation of its annual borrowing over the next few years, worth nearly 4% of the size of the economy. The US, Germany and Japan are increasing borrowing. Canada and Italy are keeping borrowing at the same level.
看来英国如今已成为IMF的模范生——在G7国家中，因减少赤字而名列前茅。
It appears the UK is now the IMF's model pupil - at the top of the G7 table for reducing deficits.
这一点很重要，因为过去五年里，英国一直处于债券市场的“惩罚阶段”，自利兹·特拉斯迷你预算以来，由于政治和经济危机影响了不同政府，英国常常是G7国家中借贷成本最高的国家。
This matters because for the past half decade the UK has been on the bond market naughty step, often having the highest borrowing rates among the G7 since the Liz Truss mini budget, as political and economic crises afflicted different governments.
虽然这对财政大臣和财政部来说是个好消息，但它也预示了未来两周内我们将看到的预算情况。为了实现减少债务的目标，约翰·希利（John Healey）在增加开支方面的空间可能会非常有限；他可能会尽量通过有限的税收增加来弥补这一缺口。在遵守债务规定的方面，政府的操作空间（即所谓的“缓冲余地”）也可能有所缩小。如果真是这样，那么这些措施将有助于缓解因中东冲突导致的能源价格上涨以及整体生活成本上升所带来的影响（即所谓的“全球通胀冲击”）。
While this is good news for the chancellor and the Treasury, it also points to the sort of Budget we will get in a fortnight's time. To keep its plans to reduce debt on track, John Healey is likely to have limited room for extra spending. He will want to marry this with limited tax rises. There could be a modest decrease in the margin for error around meeting debt rules - so-called headroom. If so that will be tied to providing a cushion against an expected rise in energy prices due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the impact on the cost of living overall - the so called global inflation shock.
对于那些期望政府提供资金以应对通胀的公共服务部门来说，这无疑会让他们感到失望——正如智库“财政研究学会”（Institute for Fiscal Studies）本周所指出的那样。这也意味着公共部门在薪资谈判方面将面临严峻的挑战。
This is likely to mean disappointment for many public services expecting cash injections to account for rising inflation, as suggested this week by think tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies. It will mean tough public sector pay discussions.
虽然这并不属于典型的“紧缩政策”，但财政大臣很可能会遵循国际货币基金组织（IMF）提出的、要求政府采取紧缩措施的建议（与其他发达国家相比而言）。目前的首要目标是避免债券市场的直接批评；目前债券市场的关注焦点主要集中在法国等其他国家身上。更大的好处可能是政府及家庭的借贷成本能够降低。
It won't be "austerity" but the chancellor is likely to lean into the IMF framing of a government with austere plans, relative to other advanced countries. The initial prize is to avoid the direct gaze of the bond markets, whose full glare is on others, such as France now. The bigger prize could be lower relative borrowing costs for government and households.
归根结底，如果没有扎实的计划作为支撑，任何预测都毫无意义。而这些计划很快就会公之于众，供所有人评判。
Ultimately forecasts mean nothing without the underpinning of solid plans. Those plans will be here for everyone to judge soon enough.