利率制定者梅根·格林表示，英国快于预期的经济增长和具有韧性的就业市场证明，英国央行在压制通胀方面做得还不够。
Faster-than-expected economic growth in the UK and a resilient jobs market are evidence that the Bank of England isn’t doing enough to bear down on inflation, rate-setter Megan Greene said.
在国际货币基金组织于曼谷举行的会议上，这位货币政策委员会的外部委员在对大西洋理事会发表讲话时表示，利率应高于目前的3.75%水平，并警告同僚不要指望金融市场来做艰难的工作。此前，国际货币基金组织将英国今年的经济增长预期从1%上调至1.3%。
Speaking to the Atlantic Council at the International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok, the external member of the Monetary Policy Committee said interest rates should be higher than the current level of 3.75% and warned her colleagues against relying on financial markets to do the hard work. She was speaking after the IMF upgraded UK growth this year to 1.3% from 1%.
她表示：“我们获得的GDP数据表明，我们的限制性并不那么强，经济中的闲置产能没那么多。最近的一些劳动力市场数据也表明，劳动力市场的闲置产能可能已经见顶，因此劳动力市场是宽松的。”作为委员会中较为鹰派的成员之一，格林在过去几个月里一直投票赞成加息25个基点至4%，以遏制工资物价螺旋式上升，但她在由9人组成的货币政策委员会中迄今一直处于少数。
“The GDP data that we’ve gotten suggests that we’re not that restrictive, that there’s not that much slack in the economy,” she said. “There’s more recently been some labor market data that has also suggested that maybe slack in the labor market has peaked, so the labor market is loose.”Greene, who is one of the more hawkish members of the committee, has been voting for a quarter-point hike to 4% to stave off a wage price spiral for the last few months but has so far been in the minority on the nine-strong MPC.
由于伊朗冲突导致能源价格上涨，英国通胀率为3.1%，预计将达到4%左右，是2%目标的两倍。市场预计该委员会将在11月的下次会议上加息。
UK inflation is 3.1% and forecast to reach around 4%, double the 2% target, due to rising energy prices caused by the conflict in Iran. Markets expect the committee to raise rates at the next meeting in November.
货币政策委员会的一些成员认为，更紧缩的金融状况和不断上升的家庭借贷成本正在压制通胀，但格林警告称，采取撒手不管的方法过于自满。
Some MPC members have argued that tighter financial conditions and rising borrowing costs for households are bearing down on inflation, but Greene cautioned that taking a hands-off approach was too complacent.
她表示：“在某个时候，央行必须言行一致。如果市场已经计入了加息预期，而你最终却没有加息，收益率曲线不可避免地会发生移动。我不相信可以依靠风险溢价来为你代劳这种策略。我认为央行实际上需要制定一项策略。”
“At some point a central bank has to put its money where its mouth is. If the markets are pricing in a hike and you don’t end up hiking then the curve inevitably moves,” she said. “I don’t believe in this notion a strategy can be to rely on premia to do your work for you. I think the central bank actually needs to develop a strategy,” she said.
格林表示，她担心通胀高于目标的时间越长，就越会传导至人们对价格和工资的预期中，从而导致更持久的问题。
Greene said she fears that the longer inflation remains above target, the more it will feed through to people’s price and wage expectations, causing a longer lasting problem.
她表示：“在过去的几次供给冲击中，我们学到的是，当你经历连续的通胀发作时，它确实会改变人们的行为。我的担忧是，我们已经经历了连续的供给冲击，并且正面临着又一次冲击。”
“What we’ve learned over the past couple of supply shocks is that when you have successive bouts of inflation it does change people’s behavior,” she said. “My worry is that we have had successive supply shocks and we are facing yet another one.”
通过以更高的利率“遏制第二轮效应”来采取预防性行动是最安全的做法。如果事实证明加息是不合理的，“你可以纠正航向，实际上你可以将通胀降至目标水平，并且对经济活动的打击也不会那么大”。
She said the safest course of action is to take preemptive action by “leaning against second round effects” with higher interest rates. If it turns out that the rate rises were unjustified, “you course correct, then actually you can bring inflation to target and the hit to activity isn’t that significant.”
当被问及10月28日的英国预算案时，她表示英国央行将密切关注宣布的政策是否会推高物价。到目前为止，“政府支出在维持反通胀压力方面发挥了很大作用。”
Asked about the UK budget on Oct. 28, she said the BOE would be watching carefully to see whether the policies announced will push up prices. So far, “government spending is doing quite a lot of work in maintaining disinflationary pressure.”