
英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利表示,目前尚未看到通胀在英国价格和工资形成过程中根深蒂固的证据。
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said there is little evidence yet of inflation becoming embedded in UK price and wage-setting.
贝利周五在曼谷举行的国际金融学会年会上表示,央行正密切关注企业和工人是否在将自身成本上升转嫁到价格和工资上,从而引发第二轮通胀冲击。
The central bank is watching closely for signs that companies and workers are pushing up prices and wages to cover their own rising costs, setting off a second round of the inflation shock, Bailey said on Friday at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Bangkok.
“就我们目前看到的证据而言,情况相当缓和,”贝利说。“为时尚早。”通胀率目前高于英格兰银行2%的目标,达到3.1%,预计未来几个月将升至4%,而英格兰银行自身认为这一水平应引发政策反应。
“To the extent we have seen evidence, it’s quite subdued,” the governor said. “It’s too early.”Inflation is above the BOE’s 2% target at 3.1% and forecast to rise to 4% in the coming months, a level that the bank itself says should provoke a policy response.
贝利及其货币政策委员会同事将于11月5日作出下一次利率决策,届时市场预期将加息25个基点,使基准利率达到4%。
Bailey and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee make their next interest-rate decision on Nov. 5, when the markets expect a quarter-point hike to bring the benchmark to 4%.
货币政策委员会内部在政策问题上分歧日益加大,其9月份的最后一次投票结果非常接近,以6比3赞成维持利率不变。
The committee is increasingly split over policy and its last vote in September was tight, with a 6-3 vote in favor of holding rates.
贝利的两位委员会同事——外部委员梅根·格林和首席经济学家胡夫·皮尔——在曼谷的其他场合曾警告不要等待更多通胀证据。两人一直支持加息,理由是担心可能出现第二轮效应,以及需要快速行动。
Two of Bailey’s committee colleagues — external member Megan Greene and chief economist Huw Pill — have warned at other events in Bangkok against waiting for more inflation evidence. Both have been voting for rate increases, citing concern about the potential for second-round effects and the need to move fast.
贝利曾主张,政策具有限制性,因为英格兰银行本来计划在今年降息,但伊朗冲突于2月爆发改变了这一预期。当时,“市场正在预计几次降息,我认为这可能相当合理,”他在周五的国际金融学会活动上说道。
Bailey has argued that policy is restrictive because the BOE was going to cut rates this year before the Iran conflict began in February. At that point, “the market was pricing a couple of cuts, and I thought that was probably pretty reasonable,” he said Friday at the IIF event.
他在国际货币基金组织上调英国今年增长预期至1.3%(此前为1%)之后发表了上述言论。与此同时,英国官方本周公布的GDP数据显示,经济扩张速度快于预期。8月前三个月GDP增长0.7%。贝利表示,英国经济证明了“比我们预期的更具韧性”。
He was speaking after the International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the UK to 1.3% this year from 1% and official UK GDP data this week showed the economy is expanding faster than expected. GDP rose 0.7% in the three months to August. The UK economy is proving to be “more resilient than we expected it to be,” Bailey said.