英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利警告称，如果经济再度衰退，各国政府可能会束手无策，因为疲弱的增长和一系列严重冲击已经耗尽了它们的政策空间。
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned governments may be left helpless in the event of another downturn as their firepower is sapped by weak growth and a series of severe shocks.
在债券价格因能源价格担忧和法国预算压力而再度下跌的当天，贝利表示，财政政策必须让市场感到可信。
Speaking on a day that bonds fell again over concerns about energy prices and France’s budgetary pressures, Bailey said fiscal policy must look credible to the markets.
“更高的借贷成本和更弱的增长推高了债务与GDP的比率，与此同时，要求增加支出的呼声也愈发强烈。如果市场质疑财政路径，收益率将进一步上升，从而形成恶性循环。”这位行长表示，虽然政府通常可以通过增加借贷来缓冲严重衰退，并在经济好转后重新创造财政空间，但在经济环境动荡的情况下，这要困难得多。
“Higher borrowing costs and weaker growth raise debt to GDP levels, and at the same time, calls for spending to increase are louder. And if markets doubt the fiscal path, yields rise further, which then feeds back.”The governor said that while governments can usually borrow more to cushion a severe downturn — and then rebuild fiscal space when the economy improves — this is more difficult in a volatile economic backdrop.
贝利在土耳其的一场活动上表示：“当冲击变得更加频繁、基础增长更弱，而接连不断的冲击又导致政府债务水平上升时，这种状况将变得难以维持。”
“When shocks become more frequent, underlying growth is weaker, and the succession of shocks leads to a higher level of government debt, this becomes much harder to sustain,” Bailey said at an event in Turkey.
尽管英国不像欧洲其他一些经济体那样受到投资者情绪波动的严重影响，但在工党政府将于10月28日公布预算之前，其财政状况依然岌岌可危。
While the UK has not been as badly affected by jittery investors as some other European economies, it nonetheless faces a perilous fiscal situation ahead of the Labour government’s budget on Oct. 28.
新任首相安迪·伯纳姆面临压力，必须为受中东冲突影响而陷入困境的家庭和企业提供支持。然而，飙升的借贷成本已经侵蚀了财政大臣约翰·希利本已有限的财政操作空间，而英国政府债券的收益率也接近数十年来最高水平。
New Prime Minister Andy Burnham is under pressure to provide support for households and businesses squeezed by the effects of conflict in the Middle East. However, soaring borrowing costs have eroded Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s already limited fiscal wiggle room with gilt yields around their highest level in decades.
贝利表示，财政政策必须“以稳定为导向，并被市场视为可信”。尽管自金融危机以来英国经济增长一直平平无奇，但贝利认为人工智能可能成为改变局势的关键因素，并且已经开始对经济形成支撑。
Bailey said fiscal policy must “be directed towards stability and be seen by markets as credible.”While the UK has suffered from pedestrian growth rates since the financial crisis, Bailey sees artificial intelligence as a potential game-changer that is already helping to support the economy.
“到目前为止，这个故事的一个重要方面是经济韧性，因为近期的供应冲击正与人工智能潜在增长红利日益清晰的同时，冲击着世界经济，”他说。“人工智能和机器人技术能够推动科学发现、提高效率并提升繁荣水平。”然而，他也看到了这项技术带来的风险，包括如果投资者对其应用失去信心，人工智能泡沫可能会破裂。
“An important part of the story so far is economic resilience in the sense that recent supply shocks have hit the world economy at the same time as the potential growth dividends from AI have become clearer,” he said. “Artificial intelligence and robotics can drive scientific discovery, improve efficiency and raise prosperity.”However, he also sees risks from the technology, including the possibility of an AI bubble bursting if investor confidence in its adoption dwindles.
“与人工智能相关的融资迅速扩张带来了新的风险敞口，而涉及前沿人工智能的事件也凸显了相关的运营、网络和金融风险，”贝利说。“主权债务市场、信贷市场和资产估值中现有的脆弱性可能会同时显现。”
“The rapid expansion of financing connected with artificial intelligence has created new exposures, while incidents involving frontier AI have underlined the associated operational, cyber and financial risks,” Bailey said. “Existing vulnerabilities in sovereign debt markets, credit markets and asset valuations could crystallize together.”