英国正处于关键的秋季预算案召开之际"处于薄冰之上"，据一位前英国银行首席经济学家警告，政府必须控制公共支支出并避免实施痛苦的税收上调。
The U.K. is "on thin ice" ahead of its critical Autumn Budget, according to a former chief economist of the Bank of England, who warned the government must curb public spending and refrain from painful tax hikes.
在接受CNBC的史蒂夫·塞德威克采访时，安迪·哈尔丹——该银行货币政策委员会的成员，直到2021年——表示，有"危险"正等待着这次预算更新，目前定于10月28日举行。"事实上，我们在财政上正处于相当薄的冰上，冰面突然塌下来的话，在经济和政治上都将是最糟糕的结果,"哈尔丹在由高盛10000个小企业英国主办的"英国如何获胜"会议上表示。
Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Andy Haldane — a member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee until 2021 — said there were "perils" running into the budget update, currently scheduled for Oct. 28. "The truth is we are skating on pretty thin ice in fiscal terms, and nothing would be worse both economically and politically than if the ice were to crack beneath our feet," Haldane said on the sidelines of the How Britain Can Win conference, hosted by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses UK.
被问及这层比喻的冰是否会破裂时，他回答说，这种情况"存在风险"。他补充说，"最有效的方法"就是政府通过展示其"有能力和意愿削减公共支支出"来安抚金融市场。"这就是该政府的软肋,"哈尔丹告诉CNBC。"除非采取行动，否则，[首相安迪·伯恩汉]将继续陷入债券市场的困扰。"伯恩汉今年夏天接替凯尔·斯塔默担任首相后，曾批评英国的财政政策过于依赖债券交易商。
Asked if the metaphorical ice is going to crack, he responded that there is "a risk of that" happening. The "single most effective way" to head off such an event, he added, would be for the government to "appease financial markets" by showing it is "able and willing to take the knife to public spending." "That is the Achilles' heel of this government," Haldane told CNBC. "Unless and until action is taken on that, [Prime Minister Andy Burnham] will remain, alas, in hock to the bond market." Burnham, who replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister over the summer, has previously criticized the U.K.'s fiscal policy as being "in hock" to bond traders.
他作为推翻斯塔默的主要人选在今年早些时候引发了债券市场的动荡，因为投资者认为伯恩汉比他的前任更加左倾。
His emergence as the frontrunner to oust Starmer rattled bond markets earlier this year, with investors perceiving Burnham as much more left-leaning than his predecessor.
近年来，英国政府债券（称为gilts）的收益率因国内和全球不稳定而飙升，英国现在已成为G7国家中政府借款成本最高的国家。
With yields on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, surging amid domestic and global instability in recent years, Britain now has the highest government borrowing costs in the G7.
霍尔丹指出，国际债券市场已然形成了“对所有政府借贷方都极为不利的环境”，而英国受冲击尤为严重，因为该国经济“本质上是对全球经济走势的一种高杠杆押注”。
While Haldane noted that international bond markets had created a "hostile environment for all government borrowers," he said the U.K. was particularly impacted because the country is "a leveraged bet on the world economy." "Our inflation is higher and stickier.
“我们的通胀率居高不下且难以回落，经济增长则持续疲软。本世纪至今我们仍未实现财政收支平衡——历史并不站在我们这边，现实情况也不容乐观。正因如此，我们的处境才如此艰难。”霍尔丹说道。他认为，伯纳姆提议废除所谓的“三重保障机制”——即国家养老金涨幅需与通胀率、平均工资增幅或2.5%三者中的最高值保持一致——是“迈出的良好第一步”。不过他也强调，社会福利问题对于执政的工党及债券市场而言仍是“极具象征意义的关键议题”。
Our growth is lower and stickier. We have yet to balance the books this century — so history is not on our side. The facts are not on our side. That's why the ice is thin." Haldane said Burnham's push to end the U.K.'s so-called triple lock mechanism — where the state pension rises at the same rate as the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5% — was a "good first instalment." But he added that welfare remains a "totemic issue" for the governing Labour party and the bond market.
去年，斯塔默任命的财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯在遭到工党后座议员强烈反对后，不得不弱化其最初提出的削减社会福利开支的计划，此举导致英国国债市场承压。
Gilt markets came under pressure last year when Starmer's finance minister Rachel Reeves watered down her initial plans to cut welfare spending last year, following a revolt from backbench MPs.
即将发布的秋季预算案将是伯纳姆政府推出的首份预算方案。财政大臣约翰·希利上月向《金融时报》透露，他希望借此构建一个应对不确定性的财政“缓冲带”。希利的任务便是控制公共支出与借贷规模，而居高不下的通胀、昂贵的借贷成本以及疲软的经济增长都使得实现财政平衡的任务愈发紧迫。
The looming Autumn Budget will be the first unveiled by Burnham's administration, with finance minister John Healey telling the Financial Times last month he wanted to carve out a fiscal "buffer against uncertainty." Healey is tasked with bringing public spending and borrowing under control, with sticky inflation, elevated borrowing costs and lackluster economic growth adding to the urgency of balancing the books.
不过伯纳姆与希利也明确表示，缓解民众生活成本压力、向地方当局下放权力以及增加国防开支仍是政府的优先事项。虽然政府已确定部分可节省开支的领域以支撑国防计划，但伯纳姆与希利尚未明确说明为支付新增开支并同时遵守英国既定的财政规则，还需采取哪些进一步的节约措施或增税手段。
But Burnham and Healey have also said easing living costs, devolving political power to local authorities and raising defense spending remain priorities. While the government has identified some savings to help fund its defense plans, Burnham and Healey have yet to spell out the full mix of further savings or tax measures needed to pay for the additional expenditure while sticking to the U.K.'s so-called fiscal rules.
伯纳姆并未排除增税的可能性，而英国媒体则报道称，针对银行的暴利税或许也在考虑之列。
Burnham has refused to rule out tax hikes, and the British press is reporting that windfall taxes targeting banks might be on the table.
在英国运营的贷款机构纷纷游说反对该提案。上个月，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在伦敦与伯纳姆及希利会面。
Lenders operating in the U.K. have lobbied against that proposal, with JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon meeting with Burnham and Healey in London last month.
在接受CNBC采访时，霍尔丹警告称，预算制定过程中不应只着眼于企业。
In his interview with CNBC, Haldane warned against homing in on businesses in the budget.
“我认为大多数人都会认同，私营部门才是经济增长的主要动力，”他说道。“不过，私营部门内部确实存在一种‘税负过重’的普遍感受。大家觉得政府借贷过多而非不足，因此继续沿用现有政策并非促进增长之道。我希望政府能逐渐意识到这一点。”
"I think most would say that the great engine of growth is the private sector," he said. "[But] there's a real sense within the private sector that they are taxed out. A sense we're borrowing too much rather than too little, and therefore more of the same was not the route to growth, and I hope that's a penny that's beginning to drop inside government."
不过，霍尔丹也指出，他认为现任政府在经济与金融领域的专业人才储备明显不足。
However, Haldane added that he thought the current government is "significantly underweight in its economic and financial expertise."