英国消费者在面对飙升的燃油、能源和抵押贷款成本时，正表现出日益增加的压力迹象，而本月预算案中可能出现的增税前景正威胁着未来将带来更大的痛苦。
British consumers are showing increasing signs of strain in the face of soaring fuel, energy and mortgage costs, with the prospect of tax hikes in the budget this month threatening further pain ahead.
越来越多的证据表明，越来越多的家庭感到压力增大，许多人正在承担更多债务以维持生计。另一些人则在增加储蓄，因为夏季的政治乐观情绪和世界杯的狂喜正被对中东冲突的焦虑所取代，而这种冲突正日益影响家庭预算。
Evidence is mounting that more households are feeling squeezed, with many taking on more debt to get by. Others are saving more as a summer of political optimism and World Cup euphoria is replaced by anxiety about the conflict in the Middle East and its growing grip on family budgets.
尽管英国经济表现出人人意外的韧性 — — 周四再次公布的强劲GDP数据就是证明 — — 消费者信心正在停滞，零售商正在延长促销活动。购物者正在放弃外出就餐和购买大件商品，将支出转向让人感觉良好的商品，如化妆品和高端超市餐食。
Beneath what has been surprisingly robust economy — underscored by another strong GDP print on Thursday — consumer confidence is stalling and retailers are stretching out promotions. Shoppers are abandoning dining out and buying big-ticket items, directing spending toward feel-good purchases like cosmetics and premium supermarket meals.
这种消费放缓的速度表明，许多英国人仍然受到近年来价格冲击的创伤，尚未感受到首相安迪·伯纳姆所承诺的“喘息空间”。英国普华永道高级零售顾问谭健描述这一至关重要的英国消费者就像“被车灯照住的兔子”，正在为即将到来的冲击做准备。
The speed of the pullback suggests many Britons are still scarred from the price shocks of recent years, and aren’t yet feeling the “breathing space” that Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to deliver. Kien Tan, a senior retail adviser at PwC UK, described the all-important British consumer as looking like a “rabbit in the headlights” bracing for impact.
英国消费者之所以重要，是因为他们的支出约占国内生产总值的60%，这一比例高于其他主要欧洲经济体。他们支撑着伯纳姆的财政大臣约翰·希利所需的税收收入，以控制借贷并实现政府雄心勃勃的支出计划。
Consumers matter for the UK because their spending contributes around 60% of gross domestic product, a larger share than in other major European economies. They underpin the tax revenue that Burnham’s chancellor of the exchequer, John Healey, needs to keep borrowing in check and deliver on the government’s ambitious spending plans.
根据周四公布的官方GDP数据，即使在最新油价反弹之前，消费者信心就已经在下降。虽然整体经济在八月意外增长，但这主要得益于制造业。依赖消费者的服务业出现萎缩，因为英国人正在削减非必需品的支出，如体育赛事、餐厅就餐和美容护理。
Confidence was ebbing even before the latest resurgence in oil prices, according to official GDP figures on Thursday. While the economy overall unexpectedly grew in August, it was largely thanks to manufacturing. Services reliant on consumers shrank as Britons scaled back on non-essential purchases such as sporting events, restaurant visits and beauty therapies.
彭博智库的调查显示，英国人越来越依赖信用来维持生计。数小时后公布的数据显示，有55%的人表示，如果失去收入，他们无法支付超过三个月的账单，较一年前增加了13个百分点。十分之一的人最近曾错过或延迟付款。
The data came hours after a Bloomberg Intelligence survey showed Britons increasingly reliant on credit to make ends meet. Some 55% said they couldn’t cover bills for more than three months if they lost their income, a 13-point increase from a year ago. One-in-10 have recently missed or delayed a payment.
这增加了希利在10月28日预算案中帮助家庭应对生活成本的压力。然而，由于政府债务居高不下，债券市场对任何财政宽松的迹象保持警惕，他手头几乎没有政策空间。
It raises the pressure on Healey to help households with living costs at his budget on Oct. 28. He has little firepower, however, with government debt elevated and bond markets on alert for any signs of fiscal laxity.
尽管一些税收上调被预期用于让公共财政回到正轨，但希利在周四接受彭博电视台采访时拒绝发表评论，称“过去的猜测已经造成了实际损害”。
Some tax rises are expected to get the public finances back on track, though Healey refused to be drawn in a Bloomberg TV interview on Thursday, saying “speculation in the past has done real damage” ahead of budgets.
零售经济学首席执行官理查德·林表示：“我不认为预算中会有什么东西能够提振消费者信心，因为政府的手被束缚住了。”
“I don’t really foresee anything in the budget that’s going to give a boost to consumer confidence because the government’s hands are tied,” Retail Economics Chief Executive Officer Richard Lim said.
近期的一系列数据表明，自初夏以来，消费者情绪明显转为悲观。当时，天气炎热、英格兰队在世界杯足球赛中的出色表现以及伯纳姆有望上台并推出新的生活成本倡议，曾推动了消费支出。
A slew of recent data suggests consumers have turned markedly more downbeat since the early summer, when spending was boosted by warm weather, England’s advance through the World Cup football tournament and the prospect of Burnham coming to power with fresh cost-of-living initiatives.
英国零售联合会表示，9月份可比零售销售额同比增长1%，增速仅为去年同期的一半。对税收上调的担忧正在影响购物者，促使他们优先考虑小 indulgence，如健康和美容产品。
The British Retail Consortium said like-for-like retail sales rose an annual 1% in September, half the pace a year earlier. Fears of tax rises are weighing on shoppers, prompting them to prioritize small indulgences such as health and beauty products.
巴克莱的一项独立调查也显示，大多数家庭担心潜在的税收变化。该调查称，三分之一的家庭正在减少非必需支出，并积累储蓄缓冲，以应对即将到来的预算案。
A separate Barclays survey also showed that most households are worried about potential tax changes. A third are reducing discretionary spending and building their savings buffers in anticipation of the budget, it said.
GfK的情绪报告显示，9月份消费者在大件商品上的支出意愿下降，这令人担忧，因为这正值零售商关键假日季的前夕。
GfK’s sentiment report showed consumers were less willing to splash out on big-ticket items in September, a worrying the run-up to the key holiday period for retailers.
英国央行副行长莎拉·布里登周四对CNBC表示，消费者正在“受苦”，对一些人而言，生活成本是一个“真正的挑战”，她援引了上周在英格兰北部利兹的一次访问。
Consumers are “suffering” and for some people the cost of living is a “real challenge,” Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden told CNBC on Thursday, citing a visit she made to Leeds in northern England last week.
除了预算之外，消费者正面临日益增长的经济逆风，他们正在为能源账单在1月价格上限重置时飙升超过20%做准备。这意味着通胀率有望在明年早些时候超过4%，远高于这一指标开始在购物者脑海中变得突出的阈值。
Beyond the budget, economic headwinds are building for consumers, who are bracing for energy bills to surge by more than 20% when the price cap resets in January. It means inflation is set to top 4% early next year, well-above the threshold where it starts to loom large in shoppers’ minds.
柴油价格已经达到每升创纪录的2英镑（2.6美元），关键抵押贷款利率已升至接近6%，因为英国央行正逐步走向下月加息。
Diesel prices have already reached a record £2 ($2.6) per liter and key mortgage rates have jumped close to 6% as the BOE edges toward raising interest rates next month.
英国央行的数据还显示，消费者在8月份新增了25亿英镑的无担保债务，创下历史最高水平。这可能表明，随着加薪放缓和就业机会减少，他们正在转向信用卡和其他贷款。
BOE figures also show consumers took on an extra £2.5 billion of unsecured debt in August, the most on record. It’s a possible sign they’re turning to credit cards and other loans as pay rises slow and jobs become harder to find.
然而，这种应对机制正在制造自金融危机以来未见的困境水平。英国央行最近的数据显示，信用卡债务违约率已连续第六个季度上升，这是自2009年以来最长的连续上升期。
This coping mechanism, however, is creating levels of distress last seen during the financial crisis. Recent BOE data showed credit card debt defaults rising for a sixth straight quarter, the longest run since 2009.
“我不会赌 consumers 会在今年剩余时间里来拯救局面，”BCG增长中心高级主任拉乌尔·鲁帕雷尔说。
“I wouldn’t bet on consumers coming to the rescue for the rest of this year,” said Raoul Ruparel, senior director at the BCG Centre for Growth.