
英国上个月的零售额跌幅大于预期,这是财政大臣约翰·希利(John Healey)下周宣布预算案之前最新的负面经济动态。
Retail sales in Great Britain fell more steeply than expected last month, the latest negative economic update before the chancellor, John Healey, announces his budget next week.
英国国家统计局(ONS)表示,9月商品销售量环比下降0.4%,远超经济学家普遍预期的0.1%的降幅。
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the volume of goods sold fell 0.4% month on month in September, much steeper than economists’ consensus expectations of a 0.1% fall.
销售额的下降部分是由上个月反常的暖冬天气导致秋冬服饰网上销售不佳所致,与此同时,数据显示英国消费者信心正以新冠疫情以来最快的速度下降。
The drop in sales, fuelled in part by poor online sales of autumn and winter wear because of unseasonably warm weather last month, comes as figures show that consumer confidence in the UK has fallen at the fastest rate since the Covid pandemic.
尽管该行业的几乎所有板块零售额均有所下降,但9月份汽车燃料销售量环比激增2.2%,尽管加油站价格飙升至历史最高水平,其销量仍恢复到了中东冲突爆发前夕的水平。
While retail sales dropped across almost all sectors of the industry, the volume of motor fuel sold soared 2.2% month on month in September despite prices at the pump soaring to record highs, returning to levels last seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
按价值计算,燃料销售额6.1%的增长是自3月(即美伊冲突爆发后的紧接着的一个月)录得10.9%的增长以来最大的环比增幅。
In value terms the 6.1% increase in fuel sales is the biggest month-on-month increase since 10.9% was recorded in March, the month immediately after the start of the US-Iran conflict.
剔除燃料带来的提振后,9月份零售额环比重挫0.7%,远糟糕于伦敦金融城预测的0.1%的跌幅。
Stripping out the boost from fuel, retail sales slumped 0.7% month on month in September, much worse than the 0.1% fall forecast by the City.
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯(Paul Dales)表示:“10月消费者信心的急剧下降和9月零售销售量的下滑表明,正值零售商至关重要的节日季即将来临之际,家庭的日子正变得越来越艰难。这支持了我们的观点,即实际消费者支出和实际GDP都将在今年第四季度和明年第一季度陷入停滞。而消费者信心的下降也使得首相不太可能很快提前举行大选。”非实体零售(主要是网上销售)环比下降2.2%,是零售业中百分比降幅最大的板块。
“October’s sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers is just around the corner,” said Paul Dales, the chief UK economist at Capital Economics. “This supports our view that both real consumer spending and real GDP will grind to a halt in [this year’s fourth quarter and the first quarter next year]. And this fall in consumer confidence is also the kind of thing that makes the prime minister less likely to call an early election soon.”Non-store retailing, predominantly online sales, fell 2.2% month on month, the biggest percentage fall across the retail sector.
纺织品、服装和鞋类商店录得0.9%的跌幅,家居用品零售商遭遇了0.5%的销售下滑,而超市则下滑了0.4%,部分原因是天气导致服装系列销量不佳。
Textile, clothing and footwear stores recorded a 0.9% fall, household goods retailers were hit by a 0.5% sales slump, while supermarkets dipped 0.4%, partly because of poor sales of clothing ranges due to the weather.
上个月唯一录得销售额增长的板块——除了汽车燃料之外——是百货公司,与9月相比,其购买的商品量上升了0.2%。
The only sector to record an increase in sales last month – apart from automotive fuel – was department stores, where the volume of goods bought rose 0.2% compared with September.
月度销售额的下降继8月份的强劲表现之后出现,英国国家统计局将8月份的数据从月环比增长0.5%向上修正至0.7%,推动季度销售额同比增长0.7%。
The fall in monthly sales follows a bumper August, with the ONS revising figures up from a 0.5% monthly rise to 0.7%, helping quarterly sales increase to 0.7% year on year.
英国国家统计局高级统计师汉娜·芬塞尔巴赫(Hannah Finselbach)表示:“零售额在最近一个季度有所增长,增长由汽车燃料主导;尽管近期加油站价格上涨,但其月度销售额现已恢复到中东冲突爆发前夕的水平。食品和饮料销售也对该季度的增长作出了贡献,部分受益于温暖的天气和世界杯,尽管它们在9月份略有回落。”
“Retail sales grew in the latest quarter with growth led by motor fuel, which, despite recent price increases at the pump, have now returned to monthly sales levels last seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East,” said Hannah Finselbach, a senior statistician at the ONS. “Food and drink sales also contributed to growth in the quarter, partly helped by the warm weather and the World Cup, although they fell back slightly in September.”