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彭博社

全球经济简报:欧元区商业活动降温Charting the Global Economy: Euro Area Business Activity Cools

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巴黎拉德芳斯商业区的市政工人。City workers in the La Defense business district of Paris.

由于法国的抗议活动演变成骚乱和掠夺,导致法国经济收缩,本月欧元区商业活动扩张速度放缓。

Business activity in the euro area expanded at a slower pace this month, restrained by a contraction in France, where protests have devolved into rioting and looting.

在英国,受战争导致的能源成本推动,通胀率触及近一年来的最高水平;而在日本,一项关键的消费者价格指标超出了央行的目标。

In the UK, war-driven energy costs pushed inflation to an almost one-year high, while in Japan, a key measure of consumer prices exceeded the central bank’s target.

与此同时,在物价和借贷成本高企的背景下,美国消费者信心跌至五个月来的最低点。N以下是本周彭博社刊出的关于全球经济、市场和地缘政治最新动态的部分图表:受法国这一该地区第二大经济体正艰难应对财政和政治紧张局势的拖累,10月份欧元区私营部门的增速慢于预期。尽管法国的表现远逊于预期,但德国在制造业强于预期的支撑下,连续第四个月保持在50以上。

Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment slipped to a five-month low against a backdrop of high prices and borrowing costs. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: The euro area’s private sector slowed more than expected in October, weighed down by France as the region’s No. 2 economy grapples with fiscal and political tensions.

在汽油和柴油成本飙升之后,英国通胀率触及11个月来的最高点。这一大得惊人的涨幅使英国央行有望迎来三年多来的首次加息。作为国内压力迹象的服务业通胀率攀升至3.7%,而商品价格则创下2023年以来的最快涨幅。

While France performed significantly worse than expected, Germany recorded a fourth straight month above 50, underpinned by a stronger-than-anticipated performance by manufacturers. UK inflation hit an 11-month high after a surge in petrol and diesel costs, a surprisingly large increase that leaves the Bank of England on track for its first interest-rate hike in more than three years. Services inflation, a sign of domestic pressures, climbed to 3.7%, while goods prices rose at the fastest pace since 2023.

官方数据显示,英国失业率下降,雇主增加了工作岗位,这给财政大臣约翰·希利在下周关键预算案出台之前带来了意外的提振。税务数据显示,上个月领薪雇员人数增加了1.3万人。

UK joblessness fell and employers added jobs, according to official figures that give an unexpected boost to Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey ahead of his crucial budget next week. The number of payrolled employees rose 13,000 last month, tax data showed.

中国上个月仅小幅缩减了财政紧缩政策,随后决策者出台了一揽子温和的额外刺激计划,以确保经济达到北京的年度增长目标。今年财政状况紧缩一直是拖累中国经济的一大主力,未能提振国内需求。随着重大国家项目的展开,这些缩减措施可能会在未来几个月有所缓和。

China scaled back its fiscal austerity policies only slightly last month, before policymakers delivered a modest package of additional stimulus to ensure the economy hits Beijing’s annual growth target. Tight fiscal conditions have been a major drag on China’s economy this year, failing to give domestic demand a boost. The cutbacks could ease up in the coming few months as major national projects get underway.

日本的关键价格指标今年首次升至日本央行目标水平之上,这为市场普遍预计日本央行将在12月加息提供了支撑。

Japan’s key price gauge rose above the Bank of Japan’s target level for the first time this year, supporting the case for a widely expected BOJ interest rate hike in December.

10月份美国商业活动增速略有放缓,但仍接近多年来的最高水平,强劲的需求推动了新订单、就业和价格上涨。标普全球10月份综合初值指数下降0.8点至57.6。尽管服务提供商的增长有所降温,但制造业指数小幅上升至2022年5月以来的最高水平。

US business activity grew at a slightly slower pace in October but remained close to a multi-year high as robust demand pushed new orders, employment and prices higher. The S&P Global flash composite index eased 0.8 point to 57.6 in October. While growth at service providers cooled, the manufacturing index inched up to the strongest since May 2022.

由于高物价和不断上升的利率抑制了士气,10月份消费者信心小幅下降至五个月来的最低点。10月份耐用品购买条件指标跌至历史最低点,报告指出原因是利率上升以及负担能力担忧加剧。

Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low in October as high prices and rising interest rates depressed morale. A gauge of buying conditions for durable goods fell to a record low in October, with the report citing higher interest rates and rising affordability concerns.

由于高抵押贷款利率继续对需求构成压力,9月份美国现有住房的成屋待售销量跌至历史最低点。这份黯淡的报告是一系列显示美国住房市场在借贷成本和房价高企的情况下依然陷入僵局的最新报告之一。

Pending sales of existing US homes fell to a record low in September as high mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand. The bleak reading is the latest in a series of reports showing the US housing market remains mired in gridlock amid high borrowing costs and home prices.

随着经济增长在下半年继续出现反复,阿根廷经济在经历7月份更大幅度的下滑后,于8月份出现温和复苏。8月份经济活动环比增长0.1%,远低于1.5%的中位数预期。与去年同期相比,南美洲第二大经济体收缩了1.7%。

Argentina’s economy recovered mildly in August after a much sharper drop in July as growth continues to sputter in the second half of the year. Economic activity rose 0.1% in August on a monthly basis, well off the 1.5% median estimate. From a year ago, South America’s second-largest economy contracted 1.7%.

智利老化铜矿遭到致命事故、极端天气和运营失误的打击,这引发了人们对这个全球最大生产国能以多快速度从二十多年来的最低产量中恢复的质疑。虽然关税相关的贸易流是今年铜价创纪录的主要驱动因素,但矿业问题是另一个关键因素,特别是在占全球矿产供应20%以上的智利。

Chile’s aging copper mines have been battered by deadly accidents, extreme weather and operational missteps, raising questions over how quickly the world’s biggest producer can recover from its lowest output in more than two decades. While tariff-related trade flows have been the main driver of record copper prices this year, mining problems are another critical factor, particularly in Chile, which accounts for more than 20% of global mined supply.

由于对沙特阿拉伯的袭击加剧且与伊朗的战争尚未解决,布伦特原油交易价格触及5月以来的最高水平。周五早盘,这一全球基准原油的交易价格约为每桶115美元。由于已进入第九个月的美伊战争,布伦特原油今年已上涨超过85%。精炼产品价格上涨速度更快,其中尤以柴油最为显著。

Brent oil was trading at the highest level since May as attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified and the war with Iran remained unresolved. The global benchmark traded around $115 a barrel early Friday. Brent is up more than 85% this year because of the US-Iran war, which is now approaching its ninth month. Refined-product prices have risen even faster, most notably diesel.

印度尼西亚、以色列、韩国、格鲁吉亚、匈牙利、巴拉圭和俄罗斯的央行维持利率不变。哈萨克斯坦和土耳其降低了借贷成本,而菲律宾央行则提高了利率。

Central banks in Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Georgia, Hungary, Paraguay and Russia held interest rates steady. Kazakhstan and Turkey lowered borrowing costs, while the Philippine central bank boosted rates.

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