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政府:能源成本与航运中断拖累,德国经济失去动力German economy loses momentum as energy costs, shipping disruptions weigh: Government

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德国经济与能源部周三表示,德国经济在第三季度暂时失去动力,但仍处于复苏道路上,高昂的能源成本和航运中断正在拖累经济活动。

Germany’s economy temporarily lost momentum in the third quarter but remains on a recovery path, with high energy costs and shipping disruptions weighing on activity, the Economy and Energy Ministry said Wednesday.

该部在其10月经济报告中称,随着全球对能源密集型商品的囤积放缓以及低水位限制了内陆航运,经济增长可能在上半年复苏之后出现放缓。

In its October economic report, the ministry said growth likely slowed following a recovery in the first half as global stockpiling of energy-intensive goods eased and low water levels restricted inland shipping.

由于更高的能源价格侵蚀购买力、不确定性持续以及融资成本上升,国内需求在短期内不太可能提供太多支持。

Domestic demand is unlikely to provide much support in the near term as higher energy prices erode purchasing power, uncertainty persists and financing costs rise.

经价格、日历和季节性因素调整后,商品生产部门的产出在8月较7月增长2%。建筑业产出跳升9.3%,这在一定程度上反映了一项重大能源基础设施项目的完成,而工业产出增长0.6%。

Production in the goods-producing sector increased 2% in August from July, adjusted for prices, calendar and seasonal effects. Construction output jumped 9.3%, partly reflecting the completion of a major energy infrastructure project, while industrial output rose 0.6%.

然而,工业产出在7月和8月平均较第二季度水平低1.4%,其中能源密集型行业尤为疲软。

However, industrial production averaged 1.4% below its second-quarter level in July and August, with energy-intensive industries particularly weak.

制造业订单在8月较上月下降10.6%,这主要反映了大型合同的波动,包括国防采购。剔除大型订单后,下降幅度仅为0.1%。

Manufacturing orders fell 10.6% in August from the previous month, largely reflecting fluctuations in large contracts, including defense procurement. Excluding large orders, the decline was just 0.1%.

名义上的商品和服务出口在8月下降2.7%,这是连续第二个月下降,但仍较去年同期高出6.9%。

Nominal exports of goods and services dropped 2.7% in August, their second consecutive monthly decline, although they remained 6.9% above a year earlier.

尽管经济活动疲软,企业情绪有所改善。IFO商业景气指数在9月连续第五个月上升,达到自2023年5月以来的最高水平,企业对当前状况和未来前景的评估更为乐观。

Despite weaker activity, business sentiment improved. The ifo business climate index rose for a fifth consecutive month in September to its highest level since May 2023, with companies assessing both current conditions and their outlook more favorably.

能源通胀压制消费者 9月份年度消费者通胀率加速至3.3%,受能源价格近15%上涨的推动。剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率保持在2.4%。食品价格上涨0.4%,而服务价格上涨2.7%。

Energy inflation weighs on consumers Annual consumer inflation accelerated to 3.3% in September, driven by an almost 15% increase in energy prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 2.4%. Food prices rose 0.4%, while services prices increased 2.7%.

该部表示,能源成本上升正日益转嫁给消费者,价格压力预计将持续到冬季。

The ministry said higher energy costs were increasingly being passed on to consumers, with price pressures expected to persist into winter.

零售销售在7月下降3.2%后,8月反弹1.3%,但消费者信心再次走弱。GfK消费者信心指数降至10月的五个月低点。

Retail sales rebounded 1.3% in August after falling 3.2% in July, but consumer confidence weakened again. The GfK consumer climate indicator fell to a five-month low for October.

劳动力市场状况也出现恶化。经季节性调整后,9月失业人数增加1.2万人,而8月就业人数减少2.9万人。

Labor market conditions also deteriorated. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rose by 12,000 in September, while employment declined by 29,000 in August.

鉴于招聘前景仍然低迷,该部表示,未来几个月既不会出现失业下降,也不会出现就业增加。

With hiring prospects still subdued, the ministry said neither a decline in unemployment nor an increase in employment was expected in the coming months.