德国的商业前景意外连续第六个月好转，突显出该国经济正从长期低迷中复苏。
Germany’s business outlook unexpectedly brightened for a sixth month in a row, underscoring the economy’s rebound from a prolonged downturn.
伊福研究所的预期指数从上个月的90.4升至10月的91.6。彭博社调查的经济学家此前预计该指数会小幅下降至90。衡量当前状况的指标则意外略有下降。
An expectations index by the Ifo institute rose to 91.6 in October from 90.4 the previous month. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated a small decline to 90. A gauge measuring current conditions surprisingly edged down.
伊福研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特周一在一份声明中表示：“经济复苏仍在继续。然而，企业对当前形势的评估略有恶化。”尽管受到伊朗战争引发的通货膨胀以及使关键水道陷入瘫痪的热浪的影响，欧洲最大经济体今年正经历着令人意外的强劲增长。支撑这一扩张的是对基础设施、国防和人工智能的大量投资。政府最近将2026年的增长预测上调至1.3%。
“The economics recovery is continuing,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said Monday in a statement. “Companies, however, assessed their current situation as slightly worse.”Europe’s largest economy is enjoying a surprisingly strong year, despite inflation triggered by the Iran war and heat waves that crippled key waterways. Underpinning the expansion is vast spending on infrastructure, defense and AI.
前进道路并非一帆风顺。德国联邦银行估计，第三季度产出陷入停滞，当时反常的炎热天气降低了莱因河的水位，扰乱了该国工业部门的一个重要运输通道。
The government recently upgraded its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% The going has been bumpy. The Bundesbank estimates that output stagnated in the third quarter, when unseasonably hot weather lowered water levels in the Rhine river, disrupting a vital transport route for the country’s industrial sector.
不断上升的利率可能会带来额外的阻力。欧洲央行官员已暗示，可能需要采取进一步的紧缩政策来控制物价上涨，尽管外界普遍预计该行将在周四把关键存款利率维持在2.5%不变。
Rising interest rates could create additional headwinds. European Central Bank officials have signaled that more tightening might be needed to tame price gains, though they’re widely expected to leave the key deposit rate at 2.5% on Thursday.
但德国央行预计今年最后三个月将出现“明显”增长，而标普全球上周的商业调查显示，尽管动能减弱，扩张态势仍持续了第四个月。
But Germany’s central bank expects the final three months of the year to record “noticeable” growth, while business surveys from S&P Global last week pointed to a fourth straight month of expansion, despite momentum weakening.