
文斯·戈勒 美国消费者情绪因生活成本担忧连续第三个月恶化,而日本个人消费持续疲软,德国工厂订单下滑。
Sentiment among US consumers deteriorated for a third straight month on cost-of-living concerns, while personal spending in Japan continued to weaken and German factory orders slid.
与此同时,由于缺乏减少预算赤字和国家债务的有意义进展,法国国债收益率飙升。投资者也在为明年总统大选做准备,要求溢价。
Meanwhile, yields on French bonds have jumped on a lack of meaningful progress toward reducing the budget deficit and the nation’s debt. Investors are also demanding a premium ahead of next year’s presidential election.
以下是本周彭博社报道的全球经济、市场和地缘政治最新动态中的部分图表:消费者情绪在10月初下降,对当前经济状况的看法因通胀压力跌至历史低点。对耐用品购买条件的看法因对更高价格和利率的担忧而降至历史低点。
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: Consumer sentiment fell in early October and views of current economic conditions tumbled to a record low as inflation weighed on households.
随着成本压力在四年多来首次达到最高水平,美国服务业9月份扩张速度放缓。供应管理协会(ISM)服务业指数上月下降0.5点至54.9。尽管消费者支出韧性、就业市场稳定和企业投资强劲继续支撑服务需求,但企业也必须应对成本上升的压力。
Views of buying conditions for durable goods fell to a record low due to concerns over higher prices and interest rates. The US service sector expanded at a slower pace in September as cost pressures grew by the most in more than four years. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index fell 0.5 point to 54.9 last month.

抵押贷款利率连续第七周上升,达到近三年来最高水平,进一步加剧了国家的住房可负担性问题。根据抵押银行家协会(MBA)数据,截至10月2日当周,30年固定利率抵押贷款合同利率上升19个基点至7.49%,为2023年11月以来最高水平。抵押贷款活动随之下降。
While resilient consumer spending, a stable job market and strong business investment continue to support demand for services, firms must also contend with mounting costs. Mortgage rates climbed for a seventh straight week to their highest level in nearly three years, compounding the nation’s affordability problem. The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 19 basis points to 7.49% in the week ended Oct. 2, its highest point since November 2023, according to Mortgage Bankers Association.


法国国债突然抛售唤起了人们对2009年至2015年欧洲主权债务危机的记忆。法国一直是欧元区预算赤字最大的国家之一。投资者持有法国10年期国债相比德国国债所要求的额外收益率最近升至2011年以来的最高水平。
Mortgage activity fell in response. A sudden selloff of French bonds has stirred memories of the sovereign debt crisis that cascaded across Europe between 2009 and 2015. France has been running one of the euro area’s largest budget deficits.

德国工厂订单自1月以来降幅最大,制造业在试图实现持续复苏时遭遇挫折。需求在8月下降10.6%,此前7月曾增长3.2%。
The extra yield demanded by investors to hold French 10-year bonds compared with those of Germany recently hit its highest since 2011. German factory orders fell the most since January, a stumble for the manufacturing sector as it tries to mount a sustained turnaround.
超级富豪从英国的外流已成为1600亿美元的问题。自2024年工党上台以来,针对富人的税收政策正日益影响伦敦作为全球金融中心的地位。
Demand dropped 10.6% in August, following a 3.2% gain in July. The exodus of the uber-rich from the UK has become a $160 billion problem.

中国已允许各省动用5500亿元人民币(约合820亿美元)的历年未使用债券额度,以支持北京的刺激措施,旨在实现今年的增长目标。这是北京9月下旬推出的刺激方案的最新一环,旨在提振因低于今年4.5%-5%增长目标而放缓的经济增长。
Tax changes targeting the wealthy since Labour came to office in 2024 are taking a growing toll on London’s status as a global financial powerhouse. China has allowed its provinces to tap 550 billion yuan ($82 billion) in unspent bond quotas saved from previous years, as Beijing adds to a stimulus effort aimed at meeting this year’s growth target.


日本家庭支出连续第九个月下降,尽管工资仍在持续增长,表明消费者在通胀持续侵蚀购买力的情况下仍保持谨慎。经通胀调整后的家庭支出在8月较去年同期下降3.1%。
It’s the latest installment of the stimulus package unveiled by Beijing in late September to shore up economic growth that had slipped below this year’s target of 4.5%-5%. Japan’s household spending fell for a ninth month even as wages continued to climb, showing consumers remain cautious as persistent inflation squeezes purchasing power.

印度央行可能在未来一年内连续多次会议上加息,因为广泛的价格压力使其深入全球紧缩周期。越来越多的经济学家预测,印度储备银行将在12月4日的下次决策中再次上调25个基点。一些人认为,2027年上半年还将进一步紧缩50个基点,使政策利率达到两年高点。墨西哥9月年度通胀率略低于预期,印证了央行当前的暂停加息决定,同时等待对价格前景的更清晰判断。消费者价格指数较去年同月上涨3.45%。
Outlays by households adjusted for inflation declined 3.1% in August from a year earlier. India’s central bank will likely raise interest rates at successive meetings into next year as broadening price pressures push it deeper into a global tightening cycle. A growing number of economists are predicting a follow-up 25 basis-point increase at the Reserve Bank’s next decision on Dec. 4. Some see a further half-point of tightening in the first half of 2027, taking the policy rate to a two-year high Mexican annual inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in September, validating the central bank’s current rate pause while awaiting greater clarity on the price outlook. Consumer prices climbed 3.45% from September of last year.


智利消费者物价上月涨幅略低于预期,尽管燃油成本再次上涨,但由于央行行长们表示将继续保持谨慎的货币政策立场。由Rosanna Costa领导的智利央行行长们预计,年通胀率将在2027年第二季度回落至3%的目标水平。
Consumer prices in Chile rose slightly less than forecast last month despite another increase in fuel costs, as central bankers signal they’ll remain cautious on monetary policy. Chile central bankers led by Rosanna Costa see annual inflation slowing back to the 3% target by the second quarter of 2027.

根据彭博亿万富翁指数,全球500大富豪中大约100位科技巨富在9月30日前合计获得了8450亿美元的财富增长,这是有史以来首九个月的最高增幅。推动这一激增的力量与全球市场相同:人工智能热潮和科技股飙升,尤其是在美国。
The roughly 100 technology fortunes among the world’s 500 richest people gained a combined $845 billion through Sept. 30, the most ever for the first nine months of a year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Fueling that surge were the same forces driving global markets: the artificial intelligence boom and soaring technology stocks, particularly in the US.


印度和乌拉圭的央行提高了利率。波兰、冰岛、肯尼亚、秘鲁、罗马尼亚、坦桑尼亚和刚果民主共和国维持借贷成本不变。
Central bankers in India and Uruguay raised interest rates. Poland, Iceland, Kenya, Peru, Romania, Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of Congo kept borrowing costs unchanged.