新加坡：新加坡金融管理局（MAS）周三（10月14日）表示，人工智能驱动的新加坡经济扩张预计将在明年继续，尽管增长速度可能放缓。
SINGAPORE: Artificial intelligence-driven expansion of Singapore’s economy is projected to continue next year, though the pace of growth may slow down, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said on Wednesday (Oct 14).
新加坡央行在其最新季度宏观经济评估报告中表示，增长应得到人工智能相关生产领域强劲的订单积压和产能扩张的支撑。
Growth should be supported by strong order backlogs and capacity expansions in AI-related production, the central bank said in its latest quarterly macroeconomic review.
MAS表示，虽然活动可能相比2026年的“卓越速度”有所放缓，但它仍应是增长的“主要驱动力”。
While activity may moderate compared with the “exceptional pace” in 2026, it should remain a “principal driver” of growth, said MAS.
新加坡能源、贸易及工业部周三在其提前估计中表示，新加坡经济在今年第三季度增长5.4%，此前第二季度增长6.2%。
Singapore’s economy grew 5.4 per cent in the third quarter of the year, after expanding 6.2 per cent in the second quarter, said the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry in its advance estimates on Wednesday.
MAS表示：“技术相关行业持续强劲扩张，占整体（同比）增长的约75%。”并将这种增长描述为“相对集中”。
“The technology-related sectors continued to expand robustly, accounting for around 75 per cent of overall (year-on-year) growth,” MAS said, describing the growth as “relatively concentrated”.
报告称，技术相关行业出现“超额扩张”，而非技术和非石油行业则呈现“混合”增长。人工智能驱动的增长能否持续？MAS表示，当前经济扩张的可持续性取决于三个关键因素。
Tech-related sectors experienced “outsized expansion”, while non-tech and non-oil sectors saw “mixed” growth, the report said. CAN AI-LED GROWTH CONTINUE? The durability of the current economic expansion hinges on three key considerations, said MAS.
首先是人工智能驱动的全球投资周期的可持续性。在此方面，央行经济政策小组构建的指标表明，尽管超大规模云服务提供商面临财务压力，半导体产量的强劲增长仍在持续。
The first is the sustainability of the AI-driven global investment cycle. On this point, indicators constructed by the central bank’s economic policy group suggest that strong semiconductor production growth has persisted despite financial pressure on hyperscalers.
MAS表示：“虽然这表明下行风险在上升，但当前的压力仍未达到将预示人工智能投资即将撤退的水平。”
“While this points to rising downside risks, current strains remain short of levels that would suggest an imminent retrenchment in AI investment,” said MAS.
即使资本支出受到金融脆弱性的影响，也有大量已承诺的订单积压和产能扩张，这些将缓冲对生产的短期影响。
Even if capital expenditure is affected by financial vulnerabilities, there are substantial order backlogs and capacity expansions that have been committed to, which would cushion the near-term impact on production.
行业对芯片销售增长的预测，加上新订单的增加，表明人工智能驱动的半导体周期更有可能继续处于扩张阶段，新加坡金融管理局表示。
Industry forecasts for chip sales growth, together with increases in new orders, suggest that the AI-led semiconductor cycle is more likely to remain in a phase of expansion, said MAS.
影响新加坡当前经济扩张持续性的第二个因素是，技术相关行业的产能限制是否会制约进一步增长的步伐。新加坡金融管理局指出，预计将在2027年和2028年有大量新增产能投入使用。例如，美光已启动多年期投资，而环球晶圆和联电正在提升产能。
The second consideration affecting the durability of Singapore’s current economic expansion is whether capacity constraints in the technology-related sectors will constrain the pace of further growth The central bank noted that significant additions are expected to come online in 2027 and 2028. For example, Micron has embarked on multi-year investments, while GlobalFoundries and UMC are ramping up capacity.
“随着额外产能投入使用，企业可能进一步提升产出，”新加坡金融管理局表示。
“As additional production capacity comes onstream, firms could ramp up output further,” said MAS.
第三，新加坡金融管理局表示，持续的强劲势头及其对整体商业信心和投资情绪的积极影响，可能支撑经济的其他部分。
Thirdly, MAS said the sustained strength and the positive impact on overall business confidence and investment sentiment could support other parts of the economy.
“乐观的商业和投资者情绪将维持稳健的金融中介和交易活动，从而促进金融部门内企业的增长，”它表示，尽管承认全球利率上升可能会抑制信贷需求。
“Sanguine business and investor sentiments would sustain robust financial intermediation and trading activity, contributing to firm growth within the financial sector,” it said, though it acknowledged that higher global interest rates could temper credit demand.
总体而言，新加坡金融管理局认为，人工智能驱动的扩张将持续到2027年。
Overall, MAS believes that AI-led expansion will continue into 2027.
劳动力市场展望：新加坡金融管理局在报告中表示，明年劳动力需求预计将得到建设和面向国内的服务业的支持。
LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK Labour demand is expected to be supported by construction and domestic-oriented services next year, said MAS in the report.
正在进行的重大基础设施和建筑项目将支持建筑业以及专业服务业中如建筑和工程服务等细分领域的劳动力需求。
Ongoing major infrastructure and building projects will support demand for workers in construction and in segments of professional services such as architectural and engineering services.
随着学前教育服务扩张计划的落实，公共行政和教育领域的就业也预计将增加；而金融投资活动、保险和医疗保健的需求也应带动招聘。然而，名义工资增长预计将放缓至与历史水平基本一致的水平。
Employment in public administration and education is also expected to increase as plans to expand pre-school services take shape, while demand for financial investment activity, insurance and healthcare should boost hiring as well. However, nominal wage growth is expected to moderate to levels broadly in line with the historical norm.
尽管各企业计划增加招聘，但在新加坡人力部最新调查中，打算提高工资的企业比例略有下降。
Despite firms planning to hire more, the share of companies that intend to raise wages edged down in the Manpower Ministry’s latest survey.
报告称：“处于周期性低位的离职率表明，跳槽流动性有限，这减轻了企业为留住员工而提高工资的压力。”
“Cyclically low resignation rates indicate limited job-to-job mobility, reducing pressure on firms to raise wages to retain workers,” the report said.
通胀将在2027年缓和 尽管中东冲突再度升级，但新加坡金融管理局表示，预计石油和非石油进口通胀在近期保持高位后，将在2027年逐渐缓和。
INFLATION TO EASE IN 2027 Despite the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict, MAS said oil and non-oil imported inflation are forecast to ease gradually over 2027 after remaining elevated in the near term.
预计未来几个月燃料价格将保持高位，但随着油气供应流恢复正常，能源产品价格预计将有所回落。
Fuel prices are expected to remain high in the immediate months ahead, but as oil and gas flows normalise, prices of energy products are expected to moderate.
同样，与天气有关的干扰可能会进一步推高价格，但主要生产国的粮食库存应会缓和涨幅。
Similarly, weather-related disruptions could lift prices further, but food inventories in major producing countries should temper the extent of the increases.
新加坡金融管理局表示：“在2027年后期，随着对农业生产的临时天气冲击消退，对新加坡食品价格的通胀影响预计将逐渐减弱。”
“In the latter part of 2027, as the temporary weather-related shocks to agricultural production dissipate, the inflation impact on Singapore’s food prices is expected to fade progressively,” said MAS.