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凯利·阿约特:在摇摆州领先的共和党亮点Kelly Ayotte, a Republican Bright Spot Pulling Ahead in a Battleground State

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新罕布什尔州共和党籍州长凯利·阿约特。New Hampshire Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte.

新罕布什尔州劳登——十年前,凯利·阿约特在全美选情最为胶着的参议员竞选之一中以微弱劣势落败。今年,她竞选连任州长的选情,可能会成为共和党在总体艰难的年份里一个罕见的亮点。

LOUDON, N. H.—A decade ago, Kelly Ayotte was narrowly defeated in one of the closest Senate races in the nation. This year, her re-election campaign for governor could serve as a rare bright spot in an otherwise rough year for Republicans.

现年58岁的阿约特于2024年首次当选新罕布什尔州州长,她在民调中一直对民主党对手辛德·沃明顿保持着稳固的领先优势,为全美的共和党人如何赢得摇摆州独立选民的支持提供了一个新鲜的启示。

Ayotte, who was first elected New Hampshire’s governor in 2024, has maintained a steady lead in polls over her Democratic opponent, Cinde Warmington, offering a fresh reminder for Republicans around the nation about how to win over independent-minded voters in battleground states.

在其第一任州长任期内,阿约特强调了“新罕布什尔优势”——宣传该州作为新英格兰地区低税收地区的地位以及生活质量优势——并避开了可能与白宫产生分歧的领域。

In her first term as governor, Ayotte, 58 years old, has emphasized the “New Hampshire advantage”— playing up the state’s low-tax status within New England and quality-of-life benefits—and steered clear of areas where she might end up at odds with the White House.

她重现了2024年竞选时轻松幽默的广告,当时她与丈夫乔·戴利一同出镜,丈夫开玩笑地调侃她的鼾声和有限的烹饪技巧。在新的一则广告中,戴利对她说:“你是一位伟大的妈妈”,这促使阿约特追问:“而且我做饭水平提高了,对吧?”戴利对着镜头做口型说“没有”,随后广告画面切换到两人在吃中式外卖。

She has reprised the lighthearted advertising from her 2024 campaign, in which she appeared alongside her husband, Joe Daley, who joked about her snoring and limited cooking skills. In a new ad, Daley tells her, “you’re a great mom,” prompting Ayotte to ask, “And I’ve gotten better at cooking, right?”Daley mouths “no” to the camera and the ad cuts to them eating Chinese takeout.

共和党人希望,处于选票首位的阿约特能够提振该党,因为该党正试图保持对州议会两院以及州执行委员会多数席位的控制,同时力争赢得一个竞争激烈的美国参议员席位。

Republicans are hoping Ayotte at the top of the ticket will boost the party as it tries to maintain control of both chambers of the state legislature and a majority on the state’s executive council while flipping a competitive U.S. Senate seat.

阿约特在新罕布什尔州康科德州议会大厦举行的2025年就职典礼上。(查尔斯·克鲁帕/美联社)Ayotte at her 2025 inauguration at the New Hampshire State House in Concord, N.H. (Charles Krupa/Associated Press)

新罕布什尔州的资深共和党战略家吉姆·梅里尔表示:“毫无疑问,阿约特团队炮制出了一种‘秘方’,在我认为全美各地对民主党而言将是非常有利的一年里,这种秘方发挥了极高的成效。”

“There’s no question that the Ayotte campaign has got a special sauce that they’ve put together to be very effective in what I think is otherwise going to be a very good year for Democrats around the country,” said Jim Merrill, a longtime Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

过去十年,民主党一直控制着新罕布什尔州的联邦职务,该州自2004年以来在每次总统选举中都投给了民主党。艾奥特在2010年赢得了她唯一的一个参议员任期,她是新罕布什尔州最后一位在参议院任职的共和党人,过去十年,民主党一直控制着该州的两个众议院席位。

Democrats have controlled federal offices in New Hampshire for the past decade, and the state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2004. Ayotte, who won her single Senate term in 2010, is the last New Hampshire Republican to serve in the Senate, and Democrats have controlled the two House seats for the past decade.

该州的共和党人希望艾奥特能帮助前参议员约翰·E·苏努诺在与民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯的参议院竞选中取胜。民意调查显示,帕帕斯在与苏努诺的参议院竞选中略微领先,苏努诺正试图夺回即将退休的民主党参议员珍妮·沙希恩的席位。

The state’s Republicans are hoping that Ayotte can help former Sen. John E. Sununu in his Senate battle against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. Polls have shown Pappas with a slight lead in the Senate race against Sununu, who is attempting to recapture the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

本月早些时候,在共和党州参议员霍华德·珀尔赞助的卢顿户外啤酒节上,艾奥特与当地共和党人交流,而一支翻唱乐队正在演奏汤姆·科克兰的《生命是一条公路》和弗利特伍德·麦克的《梦想》,宾客们品尝啤酒并享用汉堡和热狗。

During an outdoor Oktoberfest festival in Loudon earlier this month sponsored by GOP state Sen. Howard Pearl, Ayotte mingled with local Republicans while a cover band performed Tom Cochrane’s “Life is a Highway,” and Fleetwood Mac’s “Dreams” and guests sampled beer and nibbled on hamburgers and hot dogs.

“[艾奥特]在这里是我们名单上的绝佳首选,希望这能带动下票选举,帮助我们在一些竞争较激烈的选举中取胜,”珀尔说。“她一直是个独立思考者……我认为格拉尼特州的选民,他们一直更倾向于支持个人,而不是也许只是政党路线。”最近的一份AARP民意调查揭示了该州州级和联邦选举中分票投票的潜力。在州长选举中,民调显示艾奥特支持率为52%,沃明顿为45%,有3%未决定。在参议院选举中,帕帕斯以51%领先,苏努诺为44%,有5%未决定。

“[Ayotte’s] a great top of the ticket for us here, and hopefully that transcends down ticket and helps us in some of those races that are a little closer,” Pearl said. “She’s been an independent thinker…I think Granite Staters, they’ve always voted more for the individual than perhaps maybe a party line.”A recent AARP poll offered a window into the potential for ticket-splitting among the state and federal races. In the race for governor, the poll found Ayotte at 52% and Warmington at 45%, with 3% undecided. In the Senate race, Pappas had an edge with 51% and Sununu at 44%, with 5% undecided.

美国参议员共和党籍候选人约翰·苏努努与阿约特在劳登的一次十月啤酒节活动上。(埃米利奥·穆斯托为《华尔街日报》拍摄)John Sununu, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, with Ayotte at an Oktoberfest event in in Loudon. (Emilio Musto for WSJ)

尽管存在分票投票,一些共和党人表示,艾奥特的受欢迎程度最终可能帮助苏努诺获胜。另一些人则表示担忧,她可能不会提升苏努诺或其他下票候选人的支持度。“她肯定会从中受益,但我不认为会有另一位共和党人能从分票投票中受益,”新罕布什尔州共和党州委员会前主席弗格斯·库伦说。阿约特的办公室没有回应采访请求。

Despite the ticket-splitting, some Republicans said Ayotte’s popularity could ultimately help Sununu win. Others expressed reservations that she would boost Sununu or other down-ballot candidates. “She’s going to benefit from that, but I don’t think there’s going to be another Republican who’s going to benefit from ticket splitting,” said Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee. Ayotte’s office didn’t respond to a request for an interview.

沃明顿曾任行政委员会成员(该委员会是由五名经选举产生、与州长分享权力的成员组成的董事会),她在住房、教育资金、托儿成本以及“挺身对抗唐纳德·特朗普”等问题上称阿约特为“甩手州长”。

Warmington, who previously served on the executive council, the five-member elected board that shares power with the governor, has called Ayotte an “absentee governor” on issues such as housing, education funding, child care costs and “standing up to Donald Trump.”

州长竞选中的民主党籍候选人辛德·沃明顿。Cinde Warmington, the Democratic candidate in the governor’s race.

沃明顿表示,新罕布什尔州居民“看到了她正在造成的破坏——飙升的住房成本以及她抬高了医疗保健成本这一事实……他们已经受够了,这次选举有一个真正的选择”。共和党人将沃明顿过去为奥施康定(OxyContin)生产商普渡制药(Purdue Pharma)的游说活动,作为他们在该州攻击的核心内容,该州受阿片类药物危机打击严重。

Warmington said New Hampshire residents “see the damage that she’s doing—the skyrocketing cost of housing and the fact that she’s jacked up the cost of health care…they’ve had it and there’s a real choice in this election.”Republicans have made Warmington’s past lobbying for Purdue Pharma, the maker of OxyContin, a centerpiece of their attacks in the state, which has been hard hit by the opioid crisis.

沃明顿曾在2001年至2002年为该公司进行游说,她为自己的工作进行了辩护,指出她是在为患者争取获得医疗服务的机会。她曾指责阿约特在担任州总检察长期间没有对普渡制药提起诉讼。

Warmington, who lobbied for the company in 2001-2002, has defended her work, noting she was fighting for patients to get access to healthcare. She has faulted Ayotte for not pursuing litigation against Purdue Pharma as the state’s attorney general.

2004年,在获共和党籍州长克雷格·本森任命并经行政委员会确认后,阿约特成为该州首位担任总检察长的女性。当共和党籍参议员贾德·格雷格宣布退休时,阿约特竞选参议员,在2010年的共和党初选中险胜茶党支持的律师奥维德·拉蒙塔涅,随后在大选中轻松击败民主党籍众议员保罗·霍德斯。

Ayotte became the state’s first woman to serve as attorney general in 2004 when she was appointed by Republican Gov. Craig Benson and confirmed by the executive council. When Republican Sen. Judd Gregg announced his retirement, Ayotte campaigned for the Senate, narrowly defeating Tea Party-backed lawyer Ovide Lamontagne in the 2010 GOP primary, then easily dispatching Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the general election.

阿约特在2010年的一次竞选行程中与右侧的克里斯·苏努努一同向人们致意。(谢丽尔·森特/美联社)Ayotte greets people on a campaign stop in 2010 with Chris Sununu, right. (Cheryl Senter/AP)

2016年,阿约特的政治晋升之路陷入停滞,她在连任竞选中以大约1000票之差败给时任州长玛吉·哈桑。就在那场选举的一个月前,随着2005年特朗普用粗俗的性爱言辞谈论女性的《访问好莱坞》录音带曝光,阿约特撤回了对特朗普的支持。尽管阿约特险胜失利,但共和党人克里斯·苏努纳赢得了州长竞选。苏努纳是今年该党参议员候选人的弟弟,他谴责了特朗普的言论,但仍支持他作为共和党总统候选人。

Ayotte’s political ascension stalled in 2016 when she was defeated for re-election by then-Gov. Maggie Hassan by roughly 1,000 votes. Just a month before that election, Ayotte pulled her endorsement of Trump when the “Access Hollywood” tape emerged of Trump talking in crude sexual terms about women in 2005. While Ayotte narrowly lost, Republican Chris Sununu won his governor’s bid.

州共和党人赞扬阿约特在特朗普执政期间如何成功应对全国性党内动态。

Sununu, the younger brother of the party’s Senate nominee this year, condemned Trump’s remarks but still backed him as the Republican presidential nominee.

新罕布什尔州的共和党人认为,阿约特在特朗普掌权期间成功应对了全国政党动态,这要归功于她自2017年担任尼尔·戈萨奇最高法院提名案的白宫“领路人”以来的表现。(埃文·武奇/美联社)Republicans in New Hampshire credit Ayotte with how she has managed to navigate national party dynamics with Trump in power, starting with her role as a White House ‘sherpa’ for Neil Gorsuch’s nomination to the Supreme Court in 2017. (Evan Vucci/Associated Press)

她的这种平衡术的一个例子出现在今年早些时候,当时她回应了在默里马克提出的美国移民与海关执法局拘留中心计划。该计划在去年12月下旬被报道后,引发了该镇的公众愤怒。1月下旬,阿约特表示她曾告诉国土安全部和白宫官员,默里马克应就该提案进行协商。2月下旬,在与时任国土安全部部长克里斯蒂·诺姆会面后,阿约特宣布国土安全部不会推进该拘留设施的建设。

Republicans in the state credit Ayotte with how she has managed to navigate national party dynamics with Trump in power. One example of her balancing act came earlier this year as she responded to a proposed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center in Merrimack, which prompted public outcry in the town after it was reported about in late December. In late January, Ayotte said she told officials at the Department of Homeland Security and White House that Merrimack should be consulted about the proposed plans. In late February, after meeting with then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Ayotte announced DHS wouldn’t move forward with the proposed facility.

在竞选过程中,阿约特在广告和社交媒体上主要聚焦于新罕布什尔州特有的议题。在一则广告中,她宣传该州禁止学生在学校使用手机的政策。在另一则她与丈夫乔共同出演的广告中,她谈到了自己推动住房建设以及敦促公用事业公司降低账单的工作。

On the campaign trail, in ads and on social media, Ayotte has largely focused on issues specific to New Hampshire. In one ad, she touts the state’s school cellphone ban. In the one with her husband, Joe, she talks about her work to increase housing construction and press utility companies to lower bills.

“她确实把新罕布什尔州的凯莉这个角色演绎得很好,”梅里尔说。

“She’s done a really good job of being Kelly from New Hampshire,” Merrill said.

请将稿件发送至肯·托马斯的邮箱ken.thomas@wsj.com和萨布丽娜·罗德里格斯的邮箱sabrina.rodriguez@wsj.com。

Write to Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com and Sabrina Rodriguez at sabrina.rodriguez@wsj.com