共和党人曾认为，在资深参议员珍妮·沙希恩宣布退休后，他们今年在摇摆州新罕布什尔州翻转一个民主党参议院席位的机会非常好。但情况每周都在变得不那么乐观。
Republicans thought they had one of their best shots at flipping a Democratic Senate seat in purple New Hampshire this year after longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement. It’s looking less that way every week.
即便在共和党面临艰难的全国性环境中，党领导人仍有理由抱有希望。
Party leaders did have reason to be hopeful, even in a difficult national environment for Republicans.
他们感到在九月提名约翰·E·苏努努后获得了势头。这位前参议员属于该州最显赫的政治世家之一，他有与日益不受欢迎的总统唐纳德·特朗普保持距离的记录，而且共和党在这么小的一个州拥有数百万美元可用于竞选支出。
They felt they had momentum after nominating John E. Sununu in September. The former senator belongs to one of the state’s most prominent political dynasties, he has a record of distancing himself from an increasingly unpopular President Donald Trump and Republicans have millions of dollars to spend in the small state.
许多人还认为，苏努努可以受益于受欢迎的共和党州长凯莉·阿约特的连任竞选带来的“尾流效应”。
Many of them also thought Sununu could catch a draft from the reelection campaign of popular Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte.
但这些希望中的很多并未实现，原因不仅仅是全国性政治气候不好。
But a lot of those hopes are not materializing, and not just because of a bad national political climate.
新罕布什尔州有其自身的方式来违背华盛顿专家的预期，来自该州的共和党策略师马修·巴特利特说道。
New Hampshire has a way of defying what the experts back in Washington expect, said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist from the state.
“从历史上看，过去十年，我们在本州是共和党，而在华盛顿特区则是民主党，”巴特利特对《华盛顿太阳报》说。“我们是新英格兰的中指。我们确实有自己独特的保守主义品牌，带有这种独立的，甚至可能是自由意志主义的倾向。”事实上，尽管共和党持乐观态度，苏努努在最近的民意调查中基本上一直落后于民主党候选人、众议员克里斯·帕帕斯。本周早些时候，《库克政治报告》将此次竞选的评级从“摇摆不定”调整为“倾向民主党”。
“Historically, the past 10 years, we have been Republican at home and Democrats in D.C.,” Bartlett told The Washington Sun. “We are a middle finger in New England. We really have our own brand of conservatism, of this independent, maybe even libertarian streak to us.”In fact, despite GOP optimism, Sununu has largely trailed the Democratic nominee, Rep. Chris Pappas, in recent polls. The Cook Political Report moved the race from a “toss up” to “lean Democrat” earlier this week.
巴特利特指出了一些原因。首先，新罕布什尔州的选民有分票投票的传统，而认为阿约特会带来“尾流效应”的前提可能是错误的。在新罕布什尔州，州长每两年参加一次选举，巴特利特说，这意味着她对投票率的影响力不如宾夕法尼亚州那样大——在宾夕法尼亚州，州长只有每四年才参加一次选举。
Bartlett pointed to some of the reasons. For one, New Hampshire voters have a tradition of splitting the ticket, and the premise Ayotte will have coattails is probably false. In New Hampshire, the governor is on the ballot every two years, Bartlett said, meaning she has less of an impact on turnout than in a state like Pennsylvania, for example, where the governor is only on the ballot every four years.
“新罕布什尔州的选民从不害怕来回反复，”巴特利特说。“在新罕布什尔州的选票上，联邦和州层面的议题像乒乓球一样来回弹跳，我认为选民们将会相当一致地跟随这个乒乓球的轨迹。”这些独特的地方动态因全国范围内共和党人所面临的艰难环境而更加复杂，伊朗战争导致物价上涨，加之加拿大的关税对这个北部边境州具有特殊意义，新罕布什尔大学政治学教授丹特·斯卡拉如此表示。
“New Hampshire voters have never been afraid to bounce back and forth,” Bartlett said. “It ping-pongs back and forth between federal and state on the New Hampshire ballot, and I think voters are going to follow the ping-pong ball pretty consistently.”Those unique local dynamics are compounded by the difficult national environment for Republicans across the country with rising prices linked to the war in Iran, as well as Canadian tariffs that have special relevance in the northern border state, said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.
帕帕斯将生活成本上升作为他竞选演说的核心，并多次试图将苏努努与不受欢迎的总统联系起来。九月下旬进行的一项AARP调查显示，新罕布什尔州一半的选民将负担能力列为“驱动他们今年11月投票决定”的首要议题。
Pappas has centered the rising cost of living in his campaign spiel and repeatedly tried to link Sununu to the unpopular president. An AARP survey conducted in late September found that half of the voters in New Hampshire cite affordability as the top issue “driving their voting decisions this November.”
帕帕斯的竞选经理瑞秋·佩特里在向《太阳报》发表的声明中坚持了这一主题。“克里斯·帕帕斯正在努力降低成本，结束特朗普对伊朗的战争和关税税收，并站出来对抗鲁莽的特朗普政府，”她说。“约翰·苏努努正在竞选，以提升他企业特殊利益支持者的底线。”苏努努的竞选团队未对多次置评请求作出回应，但他曾告诉当地电视台，“与加拿大进行贸易战毫无意义”，并多次表示他反对伊朗战争，强调他与特朗普的分歧。
Rachel Petri, Pappas’ campaign manager, stuck to that theme in a statement to The Sun. “Chris Pappas is fighting to lower costs, end Trump’s war in Iran and tariff taxes, and stand up to a reckless Trump administration,” she said. “John Sununu is running to boost the bottom line of his corporate special interest backers.”Sununu’s campaign did not respond to several requests for comment, but he told a local TV station that “it doesn’t make sense” to engage in a trade war with Canada and has repeatedly said he opposes the war in Iran, highlighting differences with Trump.
在八月的候选人论坛上，苏努努表示美国介入伊朗是一个“错误”，并主张国会应投票以收回其战争权力，因为一系列旨在限制政府军事行动的投票失败了。
In an August candidate forum, Sununu said it was a “mistake” for the U.S. to enter Iran and argued that Congress should vote to reclaim its war powers after a series of failed votes to curb the administration’s military actions.
“他一直在试图通过他的信息传达来实现的目标是，他正试图充分利用自己长期脱离政坛的事实，把自己塑造成一个局外人，”斯卡拉说。“他正在把自己呈现为新罕布什尔州的独立人士……他有点淡化党派标签，强调独立身份。”不过，斯卡拉说，这些差异可能不足以克服民主党在2026年的“热情”。民主党在该州九月份的初选中，选民投票率明显高于共和党人。
“What he’s been trying to do in his messaging is he’s trying to take full advantage of the fact that he’s been out of politics for so long and present himself as an outsider,” Scala said. “He’s leaning into presenting himself as an independent for New Hampshire ... he kind of downplays the party label and emphasizes the independent.”Still, Scala said those differences might not be enough to overcome Democratic “enthusiasm in 2026.”Democrats saw significantly higher voter turnout than Republicans in the state’s September primary.
“民主党的基本盘士气高涨，”斯卡拉说。“所以‘苏努诺’这个名字确实有分量，我不是在否认这一点，但它足以克服所有这些其他因素吗？我看不到，而且还有四周就到了选举日。”共和党人仍然有一个有利因素——资金。
“The Democratic base is fired up,” Scala said. “So the Sununu name carries weight, I’m not denying that, but is it enough to overcome all of these other factors? I’m not seeing that and it’s four weeks out.”Republicans do still have one element in their favor — the money.
前新罕布什尔州政治记者斯科特·斯普拉德林表示，共和党在新罕布什尔州的竞选支出优势显著，超过民主党，这在如此胶着的竞选中可能具有决定性作用。
Scott Spradling, a former political journalist in New Hampshire, said Republicans hold a significant spending advantage over Democrats in New Hampshire, which could be decisive in such a tight race.
该州已经被针对帕帕斯的邮寄宣传单和电视广告淹没，斯普拉德林说。而在这样一场势均力敌的竞选中，且该州人口稀少，双方如何有效地利用竞选支出来拉拢分票选民，可能成为决定胜负的关键因素。
The state has been flooded with mailers and television s targeted at Pappas, Spradling said. And in a race this narrow and in a state with such a sparse population, how effectively both sides can leverage their campaign spending to pull over split-ticket voters could be the decisive factor.
不过，最大的悬念仍然是：在距离选举只剩一个月的时间里，政治支出的冲击能够将选情推动多远。
The biggest outstanding question, though, is how far an onslaught of political spending can move the needle in the remaining month until the election.
“参议院竞赛是个个位数的竞赛。这一点没有人会争论，”斯普拉德林说。“竞争如此激烈，以至于投入如此巨额资金，就可能为帕帕斯多拉几个负面评分，同时吸引更多共和党人出来投票……这一切仍有待观察。”
“The Senate race is a single-digit race. Nobody’s going to debate that,” Spradling said. “It’s close enough that an investment of that much money could drive up just a few more negative points for Pappas and pull out a few more Republicans to vote in this race … it all remains to be seen.”