
参议院共和党人正在寻求一些帮助,以11月的关键州长竞选的形式,这可能会使或打破他们保留对上议院的控制的希望。
Senate Republicans are looking for some help come November in the form of key governor’s races that could make or break their hopes of retaining control of the upper chamber.
尽管大多数参议院的竞选都是在对共和党人友好的州进行的,但该党的现任者和其他候选人却在逆流而上,民调显示,他们中的许多人落后不到一个月。
Even though most of the Senate contests are in friendly states to Republicans, the party’s incumbents and other candidates are swimming against the tide, with polls showing many of them trailing less than a month out.
对他们中的一些人来说,幸运的是,他们可能会受到现任州长的鼓舞,这些州长也在选票上,并处于领先地位,有望连任。
Luckily for some of them, they could be buoyed by sitting governors who are also on the ballot and in pole position to nab another term.
参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩(南达科他州共和党人)说:“他们都联系在一起,投票率的高低在很多情况下肯定是联系在一起的,因为州长们很多时候都有很好的地面游戏。”“总是有联系的。”排在榜首的是新罕布什尔州州长凯利·阿约特和德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特,他们被认为是各州参议院潜在胜利的关键因素。
“They’re all tied together, and the turnout operations, for sure, are linked in many cases because governors a lot of times have really good ground games,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota). “There’s always a connection.”Atop that list are New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who are considered key factors to potential Senate victories in the states.
阿约特本人也是一名前共和党参议员,被广泛认为是前参议员约翰·苏努努(新罕布什尔州共和党人)在与众议员克里斯·帕帕斯(新罕布什尔州民主党人)的竞选中重返华盛顿的主要原因。《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院最近的一项民意调查显示,她的民主党人辛德·沃明顿(Cinde Warmington)领先11个百分点,超过50%。
Ayotte, a former Republican senator herself, is widely viewed as the preeminent reason that former Sen. John Sununu (R-New Hampshire) could score a return trip to Washington in his race against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-New Hampshire). A recent New York Times/Siena College poll recently showed her leading Democrat Cinde Warmington by 11 percentage points and topping 50 percent.
在同一项调查中,帕帕斯领先苏努努5个百分点。尽管如此,共和党人认为,这场竞选是他们与密歇根州一样翻转席位的最佳机会之一。
Pappas leads Sununu by 5percentage points in the same survey. Nevertheless, Republicans believe that the race represents one of their best opportunities to flip a seat, along with Michigan.
前两届州长、内布拉斯加州共和党参议员皮特·里基茨(Pete Ricketts)表示:“拥有强有力的领先优势有助于所有候选人。”他还对他担任共和党州长协会主席期间的一个州赞不绝口:如果现任州长获胜,参议院候选人也有75%的时间获胜。“相关性,而不是因果关系。”阿博特是目前任职时间最长的州长,他在所有三场竞选中都以两位数的优势获胜,并表现出在艰难的竞选中帮助投下选票的参议员的能力。
“Having a strong top of the ticket helps everybody on the ticket,” said Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska), a former two-term governor. He also rattled off a state from his tenure as chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association: If a sitting governor won, the Senate candidate did also 75 percent of the time. “Correlation, not causation.”Abbott, the longest-serving governor currently in office, has won all three of his contests by double digits, and has shown an ability to help out a down-ballot senator in a tough race.
阿博特在2018年以13个百分点的优势赢得了他的首次连任,帮助德克萨斯州共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)冲过终点线,对阵前民主党众议员贝托·奥罗克(Beto O ' Rourke)。
Abbott won his first reelection in 2018 by 13 percentage points — helping to drag Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) across the finish line against former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
今年可能会有所不同。阿博特仅以中低个位数的领先优势领先民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨。即便如此,很少有共和党人认为他处于危险之中,并认为他的地面行动和筹款能力将推动州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)竞选参议员。截至6月底,雅培手头有大约6700万美元的现金,而伊诺霍萨只有300万美元。
This year may be different. Abbott only holds a low-to-mid single digit lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Even so, few Republicans believe he is in peril and argue that his ground operation and fundraising prowess will boost state Attorney General Ken Paxton in his senate bid. As of the end of June, Abbott had about $67 million in his cash on hand compared to only $3 million for Hinojosa.
克鲁兹对《华盛顿太阳报》说:“州长的竞选至关重要。”“格雷格·阿博特将再次当选。作为州长,他做得很好,他筹集了很多钱,他将把这些钱用来吸引选民。“他说:“毫无疑问,得克萨斯州现在很有竞争力,而且离得太近了。”他补充说,他仍然相信帕克斯顿将击败民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。
“The governor’s race is critically important,” Cruz told The Washington Sun. “Greg Abbott’s going to be reelected. He’s done a terrific job as governor, and he’s raised a lot of money, which he’s going to deploy to turn voters out.”“There’s no doubt Texas is competitive right now, and it is far too close for comfort,” he said, adding that he still believes Paxton will defeat Democrat James Talarico.
雅培的影响力有限。参议员约翰科宁(R-得克萨斯州)指出,在实际投票本身,参议院的比赛将领先的票,与各自的众议院和州长的比赛按照顺序。
There are limits to Abbott’s reach. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) noted that on the physical ballot itself, the Senate race will be leading the ticket, with the respective House and the governor races following in sequential order.
还有其他一些州的州长候选人表现得很强硬,但可能无法让共和党参议员候选人走得足够远。
There are other states where a governor candidate is hanging tough, but may not be able to pull the Republican Senate candidate along enough.
在佐治亚州州长竞选中,共和党人里克·杰克逊突然与前民主党亚特兰大市长凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯不相上下,航空公司的巨大财务优势让共和党人里克·杰克逊(Rick Jackson)旗鼓相当。然而,共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯(Mike Collins)一直在努力对抗现任民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)。
In Georgia’s governor’s race, Republican Rick Jackson is suddenly running neck and neck with former Democratic Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, having been buoyed by a significant financial advantage on the airways. However, Republican Rep. Mike Collins has struggled to make inroads against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
在某些州,两位候选人似乎都不太可能帮助对方:共和党俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特德(Jon Husted)和共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米(Vivek Ramaswamy)面临类似的民意调查赤字。
In some states, neither candidate seems likely to help the other: Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy face similar polling deficits.
中西部的一系列州长竞选可能对共和党没有什么好处,在某些情况下,甚至会造成严重伤害。
A series of gubernatorial races in the Midwest may do Republicans little favor — and in some cases, serious harm.
在密歇根州,民主党国务卿乔斯林·本森(Jocelyn Benson)在州长竞选中与共和党众议员约翰·詹姆斯(John James)竞争中占据绝对优势,共和党人担心这可能会影响前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)在参议院竞选中推翻民主党人阿卜杜勒·赛义德(Abdul El-Sayed)。
In Michigan, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds a commanding advantage in the governor’s race against Republican Rep. John James, one that Republicans are worried could affect former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in his bid to topple Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race. “That’s a big problem,” said one Republican operative who’s worked on Senate races, requesting anonymity to discuss races.
“这是一个大问题,”一位曾参与参议院竞选的共和党特工说,他要求匿名讨论竞选问题。“我们在州长竞选中会输多少?这算起来怎么样一位共和党特工认为,詹姆斯近年来已经输掉了两场全州竞选,他可以以大约7或8个百分点的优势输掉竞选,而罗杰斯则有机会。
“How much are we going to lose the governor’s race by? How’s that math going to work out? One Republican operative argued that James, who has already dropped two statewide contests in recent years, could afford to lose the race by roughly 7 or 8 percentage points and leave Rogers with a shot.
第二位不愿透露姓名的共和党特工表示:“再多一点,缩小这一差距就几乎不可能了。”坦率地讨论了事态发展。
“Anything more, and it becomes damn near impossible to close that gap,” a second Republican operative said on a condition of anonymity to frankly discuss the state of play.
在爱荷华州,民主党人罗布·桑德(Rob Sand)在州长竞选中领先共和党人扎克·拉恩(Zach Lahn)。然而,参议院候选人、现任共和党众议员阿什利·辛森被认为比罗杰斯处于更有利的地位。
In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand is leading Republican Zach Lahn in the governor’s race. However, Senate candidate and incumbent Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is considered to be in a stronger position than Rogers.
欣森最近几周表现出了担忧的迹象,包括她呼吁唐纳德·特朗普总统在困扰该地区的天然气和柴油价格居高不下的情况下结束伊朗战争。
Hinson has shown signs of concern in recent weeks, including her call for President Donald Trump to end the war in Iran amid sky-high gas and diesel prices that have plagued the region.
与德克萨斯州一样,爱荷华州将参议院竞选排在实体选票的首位。共和党人认为欣森可以提振她的共和党同僚。
Like Texas, Iowa lists Senate races at the top of the physical ballot. Republicans think Hinson could boost her fellow Republicans.
“阿什利将让所有人都站起来,”爱荷华州共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特说,欣森和民主党人乔什·图雷克正在寻求取代恩斯特。“我不知道州长竞选的影响会不会伤害阿什利。”
“Ashley is going to pull everybody up,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are seeking to replace. “I don’t know that the impact of the governor’s race will hurt Ashley at all.”