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民主党可能触及的另一个多数优势Another majority that could be in Democrats’ reach

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欢迎阅读《政治桌面》通讯,这是一份每日新闻简报,为您带来NBC新闻政治团队来自白宫、国会山和竞选一线的最新报道与分析。在今天的版本中,我们将梳理全美州长选举版图的最新态势。此外,Scott Wong和Monica Alba将回顾唐纳德·特朗普总统备受瞩目的与人工智能行业领袖的午餐会。—— Adam Wollner另一个民主党触手可及的多数派优势文/Adam Wollner距离大选日还有五周,随着政治环境持续向共和党不利的方向恶化,民主党不仅将目标锁定在赢得众议院控制权,更将矛头指向了参议院。

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today’s edition, we take stock of how the gubernatorial landscape is shaping up across the country. Plus, Scott Wong and Monica Alba recap President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated lunch with AI industry leaders. — Adam Wollner Another majority that could be in Democrats’ reach Analysis by Adam Wollner Five weeks out from Election Day, Democrats increasingly have their sights set on not only winning control of the House, but the Senate, too, as the political environment continues to deteriorate for the GOP.

这种环境也可能让民主党在华盛顿之外迎来一个契机,实现16年来的夙愿:掌握全国州长职位的多数席位。

That environment could also present Democrats with an opening outside of Washington to achieve something they haven’t done in 16 years: Hold a majority of the country’s governorships.

目前,共和党籍州长有26位,民主党籍州长有24位。今秋将有36个州举行州长选举,参选席位中民主党和共和党现任州长各占一半。因此,民主党只需净增两个州长席位即可获得多数。但与参议院争夺战类似,他们的获胜之路需要在明显倾向共和党的“红州”领土上取得突破。

Currently, there are 26 governors who are Republicans and 24 who are Democrats. Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections this fall, with an even split of Democratic- and Republican-held seats on the ballot. So Democrats need to flip a net of two governorships for a majority. But similar to the battle for the Senate, their path involves winning in decidedly red territory.

首先,民主党需在堪萨斯州守住一个席位,该州在2024年大选中以16个百分点的优势支持唐纳德·特朗普总统。由于州长劳拉·凯利因任期限制无法连任,共和党籍州参议院议长泰·马斯特森将与州参议员辛迪·霍尔舍对决,后者在上个月的民主党初选中击败了一位更温和的对手。

For starters, Democrats are defending a seat in Kansas, a state President Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024. With Gov. Laura Kelly term-limited, Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson will face off against state Sen. Cindy Holscher, who defeated a more moderate opponent in last month’s Democratic primary.

民主党还需在关键摇摆州亚利桑那、密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星捍卫州长席位。密歇根和威斯康星属于无现任州长参选的空缺席位竞争,而亚利桑那州长凯蒂·霍布斯在四年前以1.7万票的微弱优势险胜后,正在寻求连任。至于宾夕法尼亚州长乔什·夏皮罗,凭借强劲的支持率,他是该州的绝对热门人选。

Democrats are also defending governorships in the key swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Michigan and Wisconsin are open-seat races, while Gov. Katie Hobbs is running for a second term in Arizona after narrowly winning her first by 17,000 votes four years ago. For his part, Gov. Josh Shapiro has enjoyed strong approval ratings in Pennsylvania and is a heavy favorite there.

假设民主党守住所有,或至少大部分现有州长席位,那么在特朗普赢得的州里,民主党夺取实现多数所需的两个(或更多)席位的机会正在增加。根据NBC新闻决策小组的最新竞选评级,爱荷华州州长竞争被列为“倾向民主党”。民主党籍州审计长罗布·桑德在该州树立了温和派形象,他的对手是商人扎克·拉恩,后者将自己与“让美国再次健康”运动绑定。

Assuming they hold all, or at least most, of those governorships, there is a growing number of opportunities for Democrats to pick up the two (or more) they’d need for a majority in states Trump carried. According to new race ratings from the NBC News Decision Desk, the Iowa governor’s contest is listed as “lean Democrat.”Democratic state Auditor Rob Stand has established a moderate brand in the state as he faces businessman Zach Lahn, who has aligned himself with the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.

同时,共和党防守的另外三个席位——佐治亚州、内华达州和俄亥俄州——被评为“胶着”。在阿拉斯加,民主党对自己的机会感到更乐观,因为他们的一名候选人从全党派初选中脱颖而出,将在排名选择制的大选中面对三名共和党候选人。而在德克萨斯州,民主党籍州众议员吉娜·伊诺霍萨对阵共和党州长格雷格·阿博特的竞选表现超出预期,颇具竞争力。

Meanwhile, three other seats Republicans are defending — in Georgia, Nevada and Ohio — are rated as “toss-ups.”In Alaska, Democrats are feeling better about their chances after one of their candidates advanced from the all-party primary to face three Republicans on the ranked choice general election ballot. And in Texas, Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa is running more competitively than expected against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott.

虽然州级竞选往往比联邦级竞选受全国政治风向影响较小(只看深蓝的佛蒙特州,共和党州长菲尔·斯科特仍被视为大热门),但到了一定程度,执政党的任何候选人在华盛顿执政时都难以克服这种逆风。在全国范围内赢得州长席位多数,与掌控众议院或参议院的权力相比,更多是象征意义。但这仍将代表民主党的重大道义胜利,考虑到共和党近期在州层面的统治地位。

While state races are often less affected by the national political winds than those at the federal level (just look at deep-blue Vermont, where Republican Gov. Phil Scott is still considered the favorite), they can still prove difficult for any candidate of the party in power in Washington to overcome at a certain point. Securing a majority of governorships nationwide is more symbolic compared to the power that comes with House or Senate control. But it would still represent a significant moral victory for Democrats, given the recent string of Republican dominance at the state level.

除了2006年至2010年选举期间民主党短暂控制过多数州长席位外,自1994年选举以来,共和党一直保持这一优势。这将有助于民主党摆脱“沿海形象”,证明他们能在全国各地获胜,以便在规划2028年总统竞选路线时更有底气。

Aside from a brief period in which Democrats controlled a majority of governors’ seats from the 2006 to the 2010 elections, Republicans have otherwise held that distinction since the 1994 elections. And it would help Democrats fight against their coastal image and prove they can win in places all across the country, as they figure out what course they want to chart heading into the 2028 presidential campaign.

民主党在佐治亚州激烈的州长竞选中面临惊人的支出劣势,作者:Adam Edelman与科技巨头峰会后,特朗普呼吁AI公司进行“巨大的自我监管” 作者:Scott Wong 和 Monica Alba周二,在白宫午餐会上与近20位科技巨头私下会晤后,唐纳德·特朗普总统继续抵制针对人工智能出台新安全法规的呼声,称与会者一致认为公司应进行“巨大的自我监管”。

Related: Democrats face a staggering spending disadvantage in Georgia’s tight race for governor, by Adam Edelman After summit with tech titans, Trump calls for ‘tremendous self-regulation’ by AI companies By Scott Wong and Monica Alba After privately huddling with nearly 20 tech titans at a White House lunch today, President Donald Trump continued to push back on calls for new safety regulations for artificial intelligence, saying there was agreement in the room that there should be “tremendous self-regulation” by companies.

“大家认为应该进行巨大的自我监管,而且我们自动拥有司法部、联邦调查局等方面的监管,”特朗普在科技界和政府领导人的簇拥下说道。

“There’s a belief that there should be tremendous self-regulation, and we automatically have regulation with the Department of Justice, the FBI, all of that,” said Trump, flanked by tech and government leaders.

周二的聚会汇聚了科技界的顶尖人物,包括Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊、SpaceX和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克、英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋、Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格、亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯、Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊、微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉、超威半导体首席执行官苏姿丰以及OpenAI总裁格雷格·布罗克曼。

The gathering Tuesday included a who’s who of the tech world, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla Elon Musk, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su and OpenAI President Greg Brockman.

特朗普与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊(共和党,路易斯安那州)共同主持了午餐会。副总统JD·万斯、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、财政部长斯科特·贝森特和白宫幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯也出席了会议。

Trump hosted the lunch with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. Vice President JD Vance, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles also attended.

特朗普还谈到了数据中心的激增,这些中心在选民中不受欢迎,但正在建设中以支持AI公司的运营。

Trump also addressed the proliferation of data centers, which are unpopular among voters but are being built to power AI companies.

这位支持数据中心的总统表示,科技领袖将与当地社区合作,并帮助支付能源和教育等费用。

The president, who supports data centers, said tech leaders will work with local communities and help pay for things like energy and education.

“这是一群热爱当地社区的人。他们热爱我们的国家,他们将为数据中心与当地社区合作,特别是要让社区满意,”特朗普对记者说。

“This is a group that loves local communities. They love our country, and they’re going to work with local communities for the data centers, in particular, and they’re going to work to make the community happy,” Trump told reporters.

“这可能意味着提供石油和天然气。可能意味着提供教育。可能意味着在经济上帮助教师……所以你会看到数据中心将会变得非常受欢迎。”特朗普表示,他计划当天晚些时候签署一份文件,将人工智能更名为“超级智能”。早些时候,特朗普推出了America.gov,这是一个配备人工智能工具的网站,旨在作为美国人办理政府事务的“一站式商店”。

“That might be supplying oil and gas. It might be supplying education. It may be helping teachers along financially. ... So you’re going to see data centers are going to be very popular.”Trump said he planned to sign a document later in the day to rename artificial intelligence as “super intelligence.”Earlier, Trump unveiled America.gov, a website that features an AI-powered tool meant to serve as a “one-stop shop” for Americans navigating government services.→ That’s all From the Politics Desk for now.

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