随着唐纳德·特朗普总统的第二个任期使共和党陷入防守状态，今年秋天，民主党在五个共和党执政的州长选举中处于领先或可触及的范围内。
Democrats are leading or within striking distance in five Republican-held governor’s races this fall as President Donald Trump’s second term puts Republicans in a defensive position.
在11月3日选举日前的最后几周，网站FiftyPlusOne汇总的民调平均值显示，民主党在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州领先，这两个州的该党自2006年以来尚未赢得过州长选举。佐治亚州、内华达州和德克萨斯州的选举形势胶着，共和党在这些激烈竞争中微弱领先。堪萨斯州是个例外：共和党有望逆全国趋势而上，终结该州民主党现任任期届满的州长连续八年的执政。
Heading into the final weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3, polling averages compiled by the website FiftyPlusOne show Democrats ahead in Iowa and Ohio, places where the party hasn’t won a governor’s race since 2006. Races in Georgia, Nevada and Texas are close, with Republicans narrowly ahead in close contests. Kansas is the outlier: Republicans are on track to defy national momentum and end eight years of leadership from the termed-out Democratic incumbent.
每个民调平均值都伴随着几个百分点的不确定范围，这考虑到了构成该平均值的各项民调的误差范围。
Each polling average comes with a range of uncertainty of a few points, which accounts for the margins of error of the individual polls that go into it.
州长选举往往不如参议院选举那样高度全国化，部分原因在于职位本身。州长通常需要制定预算，监督从经济和税收到医疗、执法和儿童福利的一切事务，并带领州政府应对可能出现的任何危机。这使得候选人在紧密程度上有灵活性——他们可以选择与本党全国领导人保持一致，也可以选择与之保持距离，或在本州以盟友身份参选。
Governor’s races tend to be less nationalized than Senate contests, in part because of the job itself. A governor typically has to craft a budget, oversee everything from the economy and taxes to healthcare, law enforcement and child welfare, and steer the state through whatever crisis may come. That gives candidates latitude in how closely to align with their party’s national leaders, whether to break from them or to run as their allies back home.
但特朗普重返白宫使这种灵活性变得更难，因为他的政府决策正在向州和地方政府层层传导。
But Trump’s return to the White House has made that harder, with his administration’s decisions rippling down to state and local governments.
民主党长期将爱荷华州视为其最佳夺取机会，在那里，州审计师罗布·桑德以近九个百分点的优势领先于共和党候选人扎克·拉恩。桑德一直试图在此时与民主党全国形象保持距离，因为该党的声誉正在损害其在全国更红州份的候选人。自2006年切特·卡尔弗当选单届州长后，民主党尚未在爱荷华州赢得州长选举；卡尔弗随后在2010年的连任竞选中失利。
Democrats have long seen Iowa as their best pickup opportunity, where state Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by nearly nine points. Sand has tried to distance himself from the Democratic Party’s national identity at a time when its reputation has hurt candidates in redder parts of the country. A Democrat hasn’t won the Iowa governor’s race since 2006, when Chet Culver was elected to a single term before losing his re-election bid in 2010.
俄亥俄州的竞争态势出乎意料，考虑到其近期的政治格局。特朗普的盟友、获得总统早期背书的共和党人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米在近期历史上占优。民主党人泰德·斯特里克兰是上一位赢得该州州长职位的民主党人，他在2010年只任了一届便输给了共和党人约翰·卡西克。然而，目前的民调平均显示，民主党人艾米·阿克顿领先拉马斯瓦米约四个百分点。阿克顿曾在共和党州长迈克·德怀恩手下领导俄亥俄州卫生部。就在两年前，特朗普以两位数的优势赢得了该州。
Ohio has turned out to be unexpectedly competitive in light of its recent political standing. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump ally who won the president’s early endorsement, has recent history on his side. Ted Strickland, the last Democrat to win the state’s governorship, served one term before losing to Republican John Kasich in 2010. Yet the polling average right now shows Democrat Amy Acton around four points ahead of Ramaswamy. Acton led the Ohio Department of Health under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. Trump won the state by double digits just two years ago.
尽管在佐治亚州、内华达州和德克萨斯州，共和党的形势相对更好，但在这些看似势均力敌的竞选中，他们的优势很薄。
Republicans are on better ground in Georgia, Nevada and Texas, though their margins are thin in races that look closely matched.
在德克萨斯州，共和党州长格雷格·阿博特过去三次竞选州长均以两位数优势获胜，如今他正寻求第四个任期，对手是民主党州议员吉娜·希诺霍萨。民主党希望在选票上上下取得进展，并可能从州有争议的司法部长肯·帕克斯顿在参议院竞选中的困境中受益。但阿博特的竞选资金状况远比希诺霍萨强劲。
In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has won his last three races for governor by double digits and is now seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Democrats hope to make gains up and down the ballot and could benefit from the struggles of Ken Paxton, the state’s controversial attorney general, in his U.S. Senate bid. Still, Abbott’s campaign is in a far stronger financial position than Hinojosa.
在美国西部的内华达州，共和党人乔·隆巴多在2022年击败了民主党州长史蒂夫·西索拉克。西索拉克是当年唯一一位在连任选举中落败的现任州长。隆巴多如今正试图避免重蹈前任的覆辙，今年秋天他将面临民主党州司法部长亚伦·福德的挑战。
Out west in Nevada, Republican Joe Lombardo unseated Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in 2022. Sisolak was the only incumbent governor to lose a re-election that year. Lombardo is now attempting to avoid following his predecessor as he faces a challenge this fall from Democratic state Attorney General Aaron Ford.
而在佐治亚州，尽管特朗普和即将卸任的州长布莱恩·坎普在党内初选决选前都反对他，但富商里克·杰克逊仍赢得了共和党提名。AdImpact的数据显示，杰克逊在竞选支出上远超其民主党对手、前亚特兰大市长凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯。这一优势可能成为决定性因素。
And in Georgia, wealthy businessman Rick Jackson won the Republican nomination despite both Trump and outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp picking against him before the party’s primary runoff. AdImpact data shows Jackson has a major spending advantage over his Democratic opponent, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. That edge could prove decisive.
尽管在全国范围内民主党在许多选举中都取得了优势，但他们仍担心会失去堪萨斯州——该州的州长劳拉·凯利即将卸任。根据目前的形势，保守派共和党人泰·马斯特尔森很可能会接替她的职位，成为堪萨斯州参议院的主席。民调显示，马斯特尔森的支持率领先于民主党参议员辛迪·霍尔舍；不过，该州同时举行的美国参议院选举竞争异常激烈，胜负难料。
But even if much goes their way nationally, Democrats fear losing Kansas, where Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited. She appears on track to be succeeded by Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson, a conservative Republican. The polling average shows Masterson ahead of Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher, even as the state’s U.S. Senate race playing out on the same ballot has signs of being a close contest.
卡比尔·卡纳（Kabir Khanna）为本文的报道提供了协助。
Kabir Khanna contributed reporting to this article.