作者：尼亚-玛丽卡·亨德森（Nia-Malika Henderson）爱荷华州是共和党在维持执政多数席位的斗争中所面临的一切问题的归零地。
By Nia-Malika Henderson Iowa is ground zero for everything that ails the GOP in its battle to maintain its governing majority.
伊朗冲突已进入第八个月，导致柴油价格创纪录，在收获季节重创了该州以农业为基础的经济。
The Iran conflict, now in its eighth month, has caused record diesel prices, battering the state’s agriculture-based economy during harvest season.
唐纳德·特朗普总统的不切实际的关税政策，最近针对的是爱荷华州最大的出口贸易伙伴加拿大，对该州经济造成了新的打击。
President Donald Trump’s quixotic tariff policies, most recently against Canada, which is Iowa’s largest export trading partner, have struck a fresh blow to the state’s economy.
《一大美丽法案法案》中无情地削减医疗补助，迫使乡村医院的诊所关闭和服务削减，对医疗保健的影响仍在继续。
The callous Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act have forced clinic closures and service cutbacks at rural hospitals, with more impacts to healthcare access still to come.
参议院和州长竞选也是公开的--自1968年以来，爱荷华州还没有在同一年发生过这种情况。
And there are open Senate and governor’s races — something that hasn’t happened in Iowa in the same year since 1968.
共和党的自营和开放席位的意外之举的结合，让民主党人对自己在这个周期中在这个州的机会感到乐观，这是可以理解的。至少十年来，该州在州一级一直是红色的。
This confluence of Republican self-owns and open-seat serendipity has left Democrats understandably bullish on their chances this cycle in a state that has been reliably red at the state level for at least a decade.
“全国的看法确实是爱荷华州是一个红色州，但爱荷华州并不像人们想象的那么红色。当然，如果你只看民选官员的人数，你就会发现事实确实如此，”北爱荷华大学政治学教授唐娜·霍夫曼说。“但从这个意义上说，爱荷华州非常摇摆。如果我们回顾2018年，那次选举后的国会代表团包括三名民主党人，他们很乐观，因为竞选中确实存在竞争激烈的竞选。”
“The national perception really is that Iowa is this red state, but Iowa is not as red as one might think. Certainly if you just look at the numbers of elected officials, it is,” said Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. “But Iowa is very swingy in this sense. If we look back at 2018, the congressional delegation after that election included three Democrats, and they are bullish because there are competitive races really up and down the ticket.”
尽管特朗普在2024年以13个百分点的优势赢得爱荷华州，高于2020年的8个百分点，但该州也两次以微弱优势投票给巴拉克·奥巴马总统。2025年8月，民主党通过翻转席位打破了共和党在州参议院的绝对多数席位。几周前，库克政治报告将参议院竞选从“倾向共和党”改为“摇摆”，将州长竞选改为“倾向民主党”。在州长竞选中，民意调查显示，州审计员、民主党人罗布·桑德（Rob Sand）始终领先于共和党人、商人扎克·拉恩（Zach Lahn）。
Although Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, up from 8 in 2020, the state also voted for President Barack Obama twice by narrower margins. In August 2025, Democrats broke the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate by flipping a seat. And a few weeks ago,the Cook Political Report moved the Senate race from “lean Republican” to “toss up” and the governor’s race to “lean Democrat.”In that governor’s race, polls have shown Democrat Rob Sand, a state auditor, with a consistent lead over Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman.
在参议院竞选中，州议员、民主党人乔什·图雷克（Josh Turek）与众议员阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）展开激烈竞争，根据民意调查结果，双方领先。
In the Senate contest, Democrat Josh Turek, a state legislator, is in a tight race with Representative Ashley Hinson, trading leads depending on the poll.
共和党人的困境表明特朗普已经变得多么不受欢迎，以及他的支持率下降得有多快。
That Republicans are struggling is a sign of just how unpopular Trump has become — and how quickly his ratings have dropped.
2026年1月，特朗普出现在该州，拉开中期周期的序幕，并吹嘘他的政策。
In January 2026, Trump appeared in the state to kick off the midterm cycle and brag about his policies.
“特朗普总统上任仅一年，我们的经济就蓬勃发展，”他在得梅因郊区克莱夫说道。“收入正在上升。投资正在飙升。通货膨胀已经被击败。”一个月后，特朗普做出了灾难性的决定，与伊朗发动了一场误导性且计划不周的冲突。随之而来的物价上涨削弱了他在生活成本方面的支持率，而这正是他当选的问题。
“Just after one year of President Trump, our economy is booming,” he said in Clive, a suburb of Des Moines. “Incomes are rising. Investment is soaring. Inflation has been defeated.”A month later, Trump made the disastrous decision to start a misguided and poorly planned conflict with Iran. The ensuing rise in prices tanked his approval rating on thecost of living, the very issue that got him elected.
根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民意调查，只有17%的美国成年人认可特朗普对生活成本的处理方式，65%的人更倾向于指责他的政策，而不是他无法控制的外部因素。
According to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just 17% of US adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, and 65% blame his policies more than outside factors beyond his control.
难怪已在国会任职三届的欣森上个月回避了副总统JD Vance的竞选露面。欣森也倾向于中间派，出现在宣传两党合作重要性的竞选广告中。她在伊朗问题上软弱地试图与特朗普决裂，称“战争需要成功、立即结束”，因为“爱荷华州人正在受到挤压，不应该在加油站或收银台为伊朗战争买单，”她上个月写道。“我们需要利用一切可用的选择来缓解高价的影响。”代表爱荷华州西部红色地区的图雷克回击指出了欣森支持特朗普伊朗冲突的记录。
It’s no wonder that Hinson, who has served three terms in Congress, ducked Vice President JD Vance’s campaign appearance last month. Hinson is also tacking to the center, appearing in campaign ads that tout the importance of bipartisanship. And she weakly attempted to break with Trump on Iran, saying “the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end” on“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she wrote last month. “We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.”Turek, who represents a red part of western Iowa, shot back by pointing out Hinson’s record of support for Trump’s Iran conflict.
他写道：“发推文很容易，但当你有机会投票结束这场战争时，你选择了不这样做。”“你七次投票支持继续下去，包括上周。是时候真正结束永远的战争，并将爱荷华州和爱荷华州放在第一位了。”他们的第一场辩论定于10月7日举行，第二场辩论定于10月13日举行。
“[I]t’s easy to send a tweet but when you had the chance to vote to end this war, you chose not to,” he wrote. “You voted seven times to continue it, including just last week. It’s time to actually end the forever wars and put Iowa and Iowans first.”Their first debate is scheduled for Oct. 7, with a second set for Oct. 13.
可以肯定的是，即使不是对民主党的机会表示彻底怀疑，也有理由保持谨慎。该党的品牌对许多选民来说仍然有毒，尤其是尚未放弃特朗普的白人农村选民;美联社最近的一项民意调查发现，十分之六的农村共和党人表示特朗普改善了国家经济。
To be sure, there is reason for caution, if not outright skepticism about Democrats’ chances. The party’s brand is still toxic to many voters, particularly White rural voters, who have yet to abandon Trump; an AP poll recently found that 6 in 10 rural Republicans say Trump has improved the national economy.
但民主党受益于“红色暗流”，成功地选出了一批有竞争力的候选人，尤其是图雷克，他有着引人入胜的个人故事。
But Democrats, benefitting from a “red undertow,” have managed to field a competitive slate of candidates, particularly Turek, who has a compelling personal story.
特朗普宣布了一家新钢铁厂，他声称将于2030年开业，他正计划再次访问鹰眼州。希森出席了特朗普在椭圆形办公室宣布新工厂的消息，但必须就她是否会与特朗普一起出现在该州做出一些决定，根据马里斯特的一项民意调查，特朗普在爱荷华州的不支持率为58%。当然，她会有“日程安排冲突”，以免破坏她新发现的两党氛围？
Trump, who announced a new steel plant he claims will open in 2030, is planning to visit the Hawkeye State again. Hinson attended Trump’s Oval Office announcement for the new plant, but will have to make some decisions about whether she will appear in the state with Trump, who has a 58% disapproval rating in Iowa, according to a Marist poll. Surely, she’ll have a “scheduling conflict” so as not to harsh her newly found bipartisan vibe?
“如果是浪潮选举，那么浪潮可能会对爱荷华州这样的州产生重要影响，该州三分之一的选民是我们所说的无党派选民。它们可能特别重要，”霍夫曼说。“他们的投票率低于党派人士，但他们可以被激活--一旦他们被激活，他们通常会以某种方式摇摆不定。”如果爱荷华州在11月确实选择了蓝色，民主党将因选择正确的候选人而值得赞扬。但更大的因素将是特朗普对他的政党的阻碍。
“If it is a wave election, waves can have an important impact in a state like Iowa, where just south of a third of voters are what we call no-party voters. They can be particularly important,” said Hoffman. “They vote at lower rates than partisans, but they can be activated — and once they are activated, they generally swing one way or the other.”If Iowa does swing blue in November, Democrats will deserve some credit for picking the right candidates. But the bigger factor will be just how much Trump did to hamper his party.