Iowa and Michigan are among US states with competitive Senate races that appear hardest hit by President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, with exports falling relative to before his second term began.

A Bloomberg Economics analysis found that this weakened export performance is mainly due to a drop in shipments to China and Canada, the only two nations to impose lasting retaliatory duties on US products.

Another competitive state that appears especially hit by the economic consequences of tariffs is Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is going against MAGA-favorite Republican Ken Paxton. Prices of tariff-exposed goods — durable goods and clothing — have risen faster there than nationally.

Polls show that the cost-of-living is the top concern for voters heading into the November elections as inflation and higher gas prices from the Iran war weigh on consumers. An Oct. 9 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that roughly four in five voters blamed Trump’s policies for rising prices that are outpacing household earnings.

While voters typically don’t differentiate the causal impacts of rising prices, many Democratic candidates have built campaigns linking tariffs with inflation.

Control of the Senate lies in the hands of eight or so competitive states. If Democrats win the majority of seats in one or both chambers, it would provide a check on the president’s ability to carry out a legislative agenda.

At a minimum, a shift in the majority would give Democrats a venue to host oversight hearings, subjecting Trump administration officials and associates to uncomfortable public questioning.

Farmers are a particularly important group to Republicans, as many supported Trump in both the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. At the same time, agricultural states have been feeling the brunt of the high cost of living and consequential pressures of the tariff policies.

Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are neck-and-neck in Iowa’s Senate race, which Cook Political Report ruled as a “toss up” for outgoing Senator Joni Ernst’s seat. The state last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008.

Iowa’s agricultural industry, for one, has historically relied on exports of crops and machinery to both Canada and China. With a weakened export market, it could worsen the economic pain that local lawmakers and farmers have been outspoken about.

Other agriculturally dominant states, Nebraska and Kansas, have also suffered a drop in exports as a result of a 10% retaliatory tariff from China on US imports.

The export dip in Michigan is apparent for Republican candidate Mike Rogers, who is one of the few Republicans to speak out against the trade spat with Canada. The state’s automakers have been hit with billions in costs amid changing duties on the vehicles and parts traded with Mexico and Canada.

In an ad released this month, he denounced the trade war with Canada, while drinking a bottle of Canadian lager. “Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy,” Rogers said. “We need to end this tariff war now.”Maine’s Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking reelection in a tight race against Democrat Troy Jackson, has also been outspoken about the economic consequences of the trade conflicts with Canada as the northern border state suffered from the deterioration of the integrated supply chain.

Another factor evaluated in the Bloomberg Economics analysis is a revival in domestic industry, which Trump regularly touts as a benefit of the trade agenda. While durable goods manufacturing has increased, that hasn’t necessarily translated to more jobs.

A closer look finds that the results are mixed. Ohio and South Carolina have benefited from a rise in durable-goods manufacturing employment in recent months as certain sectors benefit from industry-specific tariff protections, such as metals and transport equipment.

Meanwhile, North Carolina and Nebraska have lagged in that dimension, according to the analysis by Bloomberg Economics’ Nicole Gorton-Caratelli, Troy Durie and Chris Kennedy.