President Trump heads to Iowa Thursday looking to energize his base while touting a financial support plan to reassure farmers, a key constituency who have been hit hard by rising prices.

It’s another campaign stop to a reliably red state that’s become surprisingly competitive. Trump won Iowa three times – carrying it by 13 points in 2024 – but this year several Republicans are in tight races.

Returning to Iowa for the first time in nearly 10 months, Trump will campaign, in part, for GOP Senate hopeful Rep. Ashley Hinson who is running to fill retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat in November. Hinson and her Democratic rival, state Rep. Josh Turek, are almost neck and neck in polling averages from MS NOW/ FiftyPlusOne.

“There are a number of Senate seats in play that we did not expect to be in play,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “[Trump’s] record and his approach are likely to appeal much more to members of his base than they are to independent or swing voters.”Thursday’s rally at the Sioux Gateway Airport is the first of at least two planned visits to Iowa by the president in the final stretch of the midterms. The president’s campaign blitz to typically Republican strongholds reflects how the political landscape has shifted in a midterm that initially favored Republicans.

“The problem right now is that people perceive that the economy is not better, and inflation has not only not come down, but it’s higher,” said Ayres.

A GOP strategist familiar with Republicans’ thinking in the midterms, granted anonymity to speak freely about internal strategies, told MS NOW the president’s visits to some of the reddest districts in states like Iowa in the final days of the campaign is a part of deliberate strategy to maximize turnout by loyal Trump voters in key races.

“Specifically, the fourth district where we’re deploying him is the heart of the base, the heart of Republican support,” the strategist said. “If we can churn out our base voters in that area, Democrats’ path to winning the state just shrinks dramatically.”Seeking to address the financial hardships hitting major agricultural states like Iowa the Trump administration has announced a $8 billion relief package for farmers and construction plans for a $15 billion steel plant in the state. The president himself has also touted new foreign trade deals to export American farm products and other efforts to boost farmers and ranchers.

But some farmers MS NOW spoke to say Trump’s trade deals have made little impact on their businesses while their operating costs have increased from rising diesel and fertilizer prices. And the president’s announcement to lower tariffs on ground beef from Argentina earlier this year came as a blow to the state’s cattle industry, with both Hinson and Turek calling the policy a bad idea.

Craig Moss, a fifth generation cattle and hog farmer from Hull, about 50 miles north of Sioux City, told MS NOW that the volatile cattle market has been “rough” in the past year in part because of the president’s announcement to lift tariffs on ground beef imported from Argentina.

“Trump makes a trade deal with Argentina, and then when he’s questioned about it by reporters, he says, ‘You don’t know anything about what’s going on over there,’” Moss said. “Well, sir, you don’t know anything about the cattle market.”

Moss said the current diesel price “kind of stinks,” saying the ongoing Iran war is to blame. Still, Moss, who voted for Trump in the past, said he agrees with the president on most issues and does not regret voting for him in the past.

Julius Schaaf, a corn and soybean farmer of more than 40 years based in Fremont County, Iowa, who voted against Trump in past elections says the current volatility in the farming industry is due to Trump’s trade policies. Schaaf criticized the administration as a “rude and difficult” trading partner.

“A lot of the people that supported him were farmers that have a lot of equity in their property and they can weather a storm for a while,” Schaaf said. “But you talk to the young guys that are just getting started and trying to buy inputs and inputs have gone through the roof – they’re the ones that are really struggling.”

Vice President Vance addressed some of those concerns last month in a rally in the state, telling supporters the Trump administration’s trade and tax policies have directly benefited farmers and blue-collar workers. He’s also sought to show understanding for the economic realities, acknowledging the high cost of gas, telling voters “we’re working on it.”

Trump for his part has at times downplayed those concerns, calling the focus on affordability a “hoax,” insisting prices will plummet once the Iran war ends.

Many Iowans MS NOW spoke with from across the political spectrum agreed that their number one concern is the cost of living. And while Trump’s performance got mixed reviews they were also undecided in how they planned to vote in the Senate and House races.

Tiffany, an Iowa voter who backed Trump in 2024, plans to vote in the midterm races but says she’s currently undecided. Her top issue: the cost of living, she said, because “prices keep going up.”

“If you can’t afford to put gas in your car, how can you go to work to make money to put a roof over your head to put food on your table,” said Tiffany, who asked to only go by her first name. “You can only stretch your penny and your dollars so far until you can’t stretch it anymore.”