From New Hampshire’s Senate race to Wisconsin’s first congressional district, lower-profile elections could lead to upsets. Composite: Guardian Design/Getty Images Though Democrats have a strong edge heading into the midterms, some races have openings for Republicans While marquee races from Maine to Michigan get all the attention, and draw in a ton of money, a significant batch of lower-profile contests across the US could result in upsets.

Democrats have a strong edge heading into November’s US midterm elections, polls show. In recent days, election prognosticators have shifted even more races in favor of Democrats.

Still, some races have openings for Republicans to pick off an incumbent Democrat, or win over voters for open seats. Republicans are pouring money into these places in hopes of minimizing their losses. Mid-decade redistricting in red states also may help Republicans knock off some Democrats. Here are 10 under-the-radar races worth keeping an eye on.

John Sununu arrives at senator Howard Pearl’s Fifth Annual Oktoberfest with his wife, Kitty, on 3 October 2026 in Loudon, New Hampshire.

Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement leaves an open race, which Cook Political Report considers a tossup despite the expected blue wave. That’s largely because Republican John Sununu comes from political royalty in the state: his dad and his brother were both governors, and he was a US senator himself until losing his seat to Shaheen in 2008.

Chris Pappas, a US representative since 2019 now running as the Democratic nominee to succeed Shaheen in the Senate, was the first openly gay man to represent the state in Congress. Democrats have the edge in this race, but New Hampshire voters are known to split tickets. The state’s governor is a Republican, and Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but both of its US senators are now Democrats.

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic Kansas Senate candidate, listens to administrators at the Health Partnership Clinic as they discuss funding issues on 12 August 2026, in Olathe. Could Democrats beat the odds and win in Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932? It’s possible – both because of the strength of Democratic candidate and pastor Adam Hamilton, and a medical billing scandal for Republican incumbent Roger Marshall.

A New York Times investigation in September showed Marshall had sued more than 700 patients of his OB-GYN practice for unpaid bills, resulting in arrests for 81 of them who missed court dates. Hamilton, the founder of the largest Methodist congregation in the US, won in a crowded Democratic primary earlier this year.

Minnesota lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan greets people as she arrives at a campaign event at a senior living facility on 9 October 2026 in St Paul. An open seat after Democratic US senator Tina Smith’s retirement leaves Democrats trying to keep the midwestern state in their hands. The race is looking a bit closer than expected. Peggy Flanagan, the state’s lieutenant governor and the Democratic nominee, faces Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter turned conservative media darling.

Tafoya has shown strong fundraising and approves of some level of abortion access. The state typically elects Democrats, but Flanagan – a progressive – could suffer because of fraud scandals in state public services under governor Tim Walz’s administration.

Anna Paulina Luna arrives at the Republican national convention on 9 September 2026 in Dallas, Texas. Democrats are hoping to unseat incumbent Republican Anna Paulina Luna in this right-leaning Gulf Coast district. Election prognosticators have shifted the race from a likely win for Luna to just leaning toward her. Leela Gray, the Democratic contender and a retired army brigadier general, has seen more money come in to support her bid. While Florida Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting made Luna’s district a bit redder, Democrats still think they have a shot at ousting her.

Representative Bryan Steil leaves the office of the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, on Capitol Hill on 17 November 2025 in Washington DC. In this southeastern Wisconsin district, a slightly red-leaning area, Republican incumbent Bryan Steil has overperformed in previous cycles. This time it’s looking close, however, and the national environment could help Democratic contender anded nurse Mitchell Berman flip the seat from red to blue.

Shomari Figures speaks on the final night of the Democratic national convention in Chicago, Illinois, on 22 August 2024. Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures is fighting to hold on to his district after mid-decade redistricting enabled by the US supreme court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act made it more favorable to Republicans – and carved out his home town of Mobile. Republican Rhett Marques, on paper, has a strong edge in the newly redrawn district. Figures first won the area in 2024, when it was then a newly drawn majority-Black district.

Representative Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat from New Mexico, departs after a vote at the US Capitol in Washington DC on 15 July 2026. Photograph: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images Incumbent Democratic representative Gabe Vasquez is fending off big spending by Republicans, with the party set to dump millions of dollars into ads to boost former police officer Greg Cunningham, the Republican contender. The southern New Mexico district is evenly divided, and Vasquez won in 2024, when Donald Trump narrowly won the district. Vasquez first captured the district in 2022, when he defeated the Republican incumbent.

Re-election campaign signs are displayed for representative Vicente Gonzalez outside a polling place on 5 November 2024 in Brownsville, Texas. In the south Texas borderland district, Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez is working to fend off Trump-endorsed Eric Flores, a veteran and former federal prosecutor. The district was redrawn as part of Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting and now looks tougher for Gonzalez, who already faced tough races in the previous iteration of the district.

Rebecca Bennett, the Democratic New Jersey House candidate, speaks with reporters after a debate with Republican Tom Kean Jr on 27 September 2026 in Rahway, New Jersey. Bennett, a former US navy helicopter pilot, should have a strong chance to unseat an incumbent in this district, where voters went for Joe Biden in 2020 then Trump in 2024 – but not simply because the area is a swing district. Incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr went missing for months while serving in Congress, refusing to say why he wasn’t going to work until he returned months later. He later disclosed he was treated for depression.

Joe Lombardo, Nevada’s governor, attends an event with Donald Trump at Red Rock Casino Resort and Spa on 5 August 2026 in Las Vegas. Democratic attorney general Aaron Ford wants to unseat incumbent Republican governor Joe Lombardo in the southwestern swing state. Lombardo, previously the sheriff of Clark county, where Las Vegas is, beat an incumbent Democrat in 2022 to take the state’s executive office. Democrats control both chambers of the state legislature, and a win by Ford would give the party a governing trifecta.