RealClearPolitics美国总统项目注：内布拉斯加州的参议院选举是在共和党人和独立人士之间进行的；图表：Erin Davis/Axios 别再关注威斯康星州和亚利桑那州了。随着民主党人在众多红州的参议院选举中让共和党人感到压力，一批新的摇摆州可能正在出现。
RealClearPolitics American Presidency Project Note: Nebraska's Senate race is between a Republican and an independent; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Move over Wisconsin and Arizona. With Democrats making Republicans sweat in a host of red-state Senate races a new batch of swing states may be emerging.
为什么这很重要：一些最激烈的参议院选举正在内布拉斯加州、俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州、爱荷华州甚至堪萨斯州进行。当然，这可能只是一次短暂的波动——或者提醒人们，即使是在众多红州中，这个国家也是一个情绪多变的50-50局面。
Why it matters: Some of the closest Senate races are in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even Kansas. Sure, this could be a blip — or a reminder that it's a 50-50 moody nation, even in a bunch of red states.
- 曾帮助贝拉克·奥巴马在2008年赢得印第安纳州和北卡罗来纳州等保守州的条件——一场不受欢迎的战争、一段艰难的经济时期、以及渴望变革的选民——可能在2028年再次产生共鸣。
• The conditions that helped Barack Obama carry conservative states like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 — an unpopular war, a bruising economy, an electorate hungry for change — could resonate again in 2028. State of play:
当前形势：民主党和共和党的参议院候选人正在一些过去被认为是禁区，甚至对许多民主党人来说是白费劲的红州中进行着误差范围内的竞争。
Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are running margin-of-error races in red states that not long ago were thought to be forbidding, or even a wasted effort, to many Democrats.
- 堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州的参议院选举势均力敌。内布拉斯加州也是如此，在那里，独立候选人丹·奥斯本正试图击败参议员皮特·里克茨。
• The Senate races in Kansas and Ohio are tied. So is Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is trying to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts.
- 德克萨斯州的民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科一直在民意调查中领先，尽管随着为共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿投入大量资金，该州的竞争似乎正在趋于激烈。阿拉斯加州也是胜负难料的局面。
• Democrat James Talarico has consistently led polls in Texas, though that race appears to be tightening as money pours into the state on behalf of Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska is also a toss-up.
- 特朗普总统在2024年曾以双位数的优势赢得了所有这些州。
• President Trump won all these states by double digits in 2024. Zoom in:
深入分析：共和党的操作人员告诉Axios，他们远未确信目前发生的事情会在2028年白宫选举中催生出一批新的摇摆州。
Republican operatives told Axios they're far from convinced that what's happening now will create a new slate of swing states in the 2028 race for the White House.
- 他们认为当前的竞选活动更像是一次性事件——特朗普令人失望、物价高企以及缺乏吸引力的候选人的组合。
• They see the current campaign as more of a one-off — a combination of dismay with Trump, high prices and uninspiring candidates.
- “民主党不会在2028年总统大选中将这些州列为目标。我愿意为此下大注。但……今年这些州都处于危险之中，”一位共和党顾问对Axios表示。
• "None of those states will be targeted [by Democrats] in the 2028 presidential. I will bet big money on that. But … all are in danger this year," one GOP consultant told Axios.
- “这是大气层的一种功能，我们在R+15州采取防守姿态。我们这边存在懒散情绪，”一位共和党民调人士说。”我不认为它们本质上是新的摇摆州。”
• "It's a function of the atmosphere that we're playing defense in R+15 states. There's lethargy on our side," a Republican pollster said. "I don't think they're the new swing states per se."
但民主党人表示他们在几个红州的候选人表现超出预期，至少会为扩大选举版图打开大门——前提是有一个很大的“如果”。
But Democrats say better-than-expected performances by their candidates in several red states would at least open the door to an expanded map — with a big "if."
- “确实是一个机会，”奥巴马的前首席战略大卫·阿克塞尔罗德对Axios说。“但几乎不是保证。”
• "An opening, yes," Obama's former chief strategist, David Axelrod, told Axios. "A guarantee, hardly."
- 他还说，奥巴马在农村社区花费了大量时间，并了解了选民。今年在这些地区表现良好的民主党人一直强调要与保守派对话，而不是对他们说教。
• Obama, he said, spent an enormous amount of time in rural communities and got to know voters. The Democrats who are faring well in those places this year have made a point of speaking with, not at, conservatives.
但情况并非如此简单：今年民主党在红州获胜并不确定，更别说为2028年铺平道路了。
Yes, but: There's no certainty that Democrats will prevail in red states this year, much less set a path for 2028.
- 除了得州之外，其他几个参议院摇摆州的民调也在收窄，而民调行业在最近几次选举中屡次失误和面临挑战，这引发了人们对我们目前是否能准确把握政治格局的质疑。
• Polls are narrowing in several other Senate battlegrounds besides Texas, and the polling industry has had enough misses and challenges in recent elections to raise questions about whether we're getting an accurate picture of the political landscape at this time.
- 无论如何，可以说民主党已经让11月3日的选举变得有趣起来。
• Either way, it's safe to say Democrats have made things interesting for the Nov. 3 election.
全局来看：对特朗普的反弹在这些出人意料的竞争激烈的参议院摇摆州中定下了基调，但民主党也从每场竞选特有的因素中受益。
The big picture: The backlash against Trump has set the tone in many of these surprisingly competitive Senate surprise states, but Democrats also have also benefited from factors specific to each race.
- 在俄亥俄州，前三届参议员谢罗德·布朗（D）的知名度高于现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特（R）。
• In Ohio, former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is better known than the incumbent, Sen. Jon Husted (R).
- 在得州，民主党有一位名叫詹姆斯·塔拉里科的神学生候选人，他强调圣经的教导，而共和党则试图将他贴上激进左派的标签。他的对手肯·帕克斯顿在整个竞选过程中一直腐败指控缠身。
• In Texas, Democrats have a seminarian candidate in James Talarico who's emphasized the Bible's teachings as Republicans have tried to tag him as a radical leftist. His opponent, Ken Paxton, has been dogged by corruption allegations throughout the race.
- 在堪萨斯州，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿是该国最大的卫理公会教堂的牧师。他的对手、共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔曾因报道称其前医疗诊所起诉患者因即使是很小的未付账单而受到打击，并且其2020年竞选因未付700美元账单而拖欠面包店。
• In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is the pastor of the largest United Methodist church in the country. His opponent, GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, has been hurt by reports that his former medical practice sued patients for even small unpaid bills, and that his 2020 campaign stiffed a bakery on a $700 bill.
我们正在关注的内容：为了把握民主党今年可能出现的任何机遇，该党需要一位2028年的候选人，能够像今年红州民主党那样吸引中间偏右的选民，阿克塞尔罗德说。
What we're watching: To build on any openings Democrats might realize this year, the party will need a 2028 candidate who can appeal to center-right voters the way Democrats in red states have this year, Axelrod said.
- “民主党长期存在的问题之一在于，它仍然是工人阶级的政党，但它常常以传教士和人类学家的姿态对待工人阶级 — — 尤其是农村小城镇中的工人阶级，”阿克塞尔罗德说。就像，“我们在这里是为了帮助你们变得更像我们。”
• "Part of the long-term problem for Democrats has been that it's still a party of working people, but it often approaches working people — especially in small towns in rural areas, in the spirit of missionaries and anthropologists," Axelrod said. Like, "we're here to help you become more like us."
- 因此，在2028年，他补充道：“这取决于候选人是谁，以及该候选人能够建立何种信任纽带。”
• So in 2028, he added,"it depends on who the candidate is, and what kind of bonds of trust that candidate can build."