众议院民主党正在争取堪萨斯州的一个红色选区，但共和党在加州的一个选区也具有竞争力——双方都发布了民调来支持各自的主张。
House Democrats are making a play for a red seat in Kansas, but Republicans are competitive in a California seat — and both are releasing polling to back it up.
根据民主党在10月中旬进行并与Semafor分享的民调，民主党人Don Coover以三个百分点落后于现任共和党众议员Derek Schmidt，处于3.9%的误差范围内。
Democrat Don Coover is down by three points against incumbent Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt, within the 3.9% margin of error, according to Democratic polling conducted in mid-October and shared with Semafor.
对共和党的另一个警示信号是，堪萨斯州民主党州长候选人Cindy Holscher和参议员候选人Adam Hamilton在民调中均以微弱优势领先其共和党对手，同样处于误差范围内。调查显示，特朗普在Schmidt选区的支持率低于反对率11个百分点，而他在2024年曾以20个百分点的优势赢得该选区。
In another warning sign for Republicans, Kansas’ Democratic gubernatorial nominee Cindy Holscher and Senate nominee Adam Hamilton both narrowly led their Republican counterparts, within the poll’s margin of error. The survey showed Trump’s approval rating is underwater by 11 points in Schmidt’s district, which he won by 20 points in 2024.
即将卸任的民主党州长Laura Kelly在2018年和2022年均赢得了该选区，当时Schmidt竞选州长。民主党众议院竞选委员会（DCCC）本月将其列为“竞争选区”之一，意味着它可能处于众议院战场的边缘。
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won the district in 2018 and also in 2022, when Schmidt ran for governor. The DCCC named it one of the “districts in play” this month, meaning it could be on the outskirts of the House battlefield.
在加州第48国会选区，共和党发布的10月中旬民调显示，其提名人Jim Desmond仅以三个百分点落后民主党人Marni Von Wilpert，误差范围为4.9%。
Over in California’s 48th Congressional District, Republicans are releasing polling from mid-October that shows their nominee Jim Desmond trailing Democrat Marni Von Wilpert by just three points, with a 4.9% margin of error.
该涵盖圣地亚哥和河滨县地区的选区在本周期由加州民主党重新划分，以报复共和党在其他地方的选区操纵，但共和党认为他们能保持该席位的竞争力。哈里斯在2024年以约3个百分点的优势赢得该席位。
The San Diego and Riverside County-area district was redrawn by California Democrats this cycle in retaliation for GOP gerrymandering elsewhere, but Republicans think they can keep the seat competitive. Kamala Harris won the seat by about 3 points in 2024.