欧洲的电池热潮证明了储能有助于降低电力价格峰值。但除非政府政策改变，否则电池系统可能只会从化石燃料的使用中获利，而不是帮助消除它。
Europe's battery boom is proving that storage can help lower peak power prices. But unless government policy changes, battery systems may simply profit from fossil-fuel use instead of helping to eliminate it.
近年来，电池储能系统（BESS）激增，重塑了电力市场中的利润分配方式。全球储能容量去年增长了66%，达到近302吉瓦（GW），在十年内增长了150倍。不断下降的生产成本正在将电池从昂贵的清洁能源附加组件转变为彻底革新电力市场结构的颠覆性力量。
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) have proliferated in recent years, reshaping how profits are shared in the electricity market. Global storage capacity grew 66% last year to almost 302 gigawatts (GW), up 150-fold in a decade. Falling production costs are changing batteries from expensive renewable add-ons into game changers that are revolutionizing the structure of the power market.
欧洲就是一个典型的例子。根据欧洲太阳能发电行业协会（SolarPower Europe）的数据，该大陆去年安装了36吉瓦时（GWh）的电池储能，使其总量超过100吉瓦时，实现了十倍的增长，并预计2026年的新增装机容量将超过50吉瓦时。这些投资大都集中在少数几个市场，以德国、保加利亚和意大利为首。虽然天然气基准价在很大程度上仍然决定着欧洲的电价，但这些市场中的电池系统正在迅速侵蚀这种主导地位。
Europe is a case in point. The continent installed 36 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery storage last year, bringing its total above 100 GWh, a tenfold rise, according to SolarPower Europe, which expects additions to exceed 50 GWh in 2026. Much of that investment remains concentrated in a few markets, led by Germany, Bulgaria and Italy. While natural gas benchmarks still largely determine European power prices, battery systems in those markets are quickly eroding that dominance.
这是因为电池在电力行业术语中正在“削平鸭峰”。所谓的“鸭形曲线”描述了欧洲电价的典型模式。随着过剩的太阳能涌入市场，电价通常在阳光充足的时段降至零或以下，然后随着夜间需求的增加而上升，此时主要依靠煤炭和天然气发电厂来替代光伏（PV）发电。
That’s because batteries are — in power industry terms — cutting the head off “the duck”. The so-called "duck curve" describes the typical pattern for European power prices. They usually fall to zero or below during sunny hours as surplus solar power floods the market, then rise with evening demand as fossil-fuel plants, mostly coal- and gas-powered, replace photovoltaic (PV) output.
电池越来越多地在光伏发电高峰期吸收剩余电力——也就是在电力便宜时买入，然后在电价高得多的晚间时段释放。这拉平了价格曲线，因为电池系统通过砍掉“鸭峰”获得了丰厚利润。
Increasingly, batteries are absorbing surplus electricity during peak PV production – so buying power when it’s cheap – and then discharging it during evening hours when it can fetch a much higher price. This flattens the price curve, as battery systems profit handsomely from decapitating the “duck”.
而且它们的确获利颇丰。欧洲的碳成本使得电价在那些绝大部分电力仍来自化石燃料的晚间时段变得格外昂贵。今年，由于伊朗战争引发的全球能源紧缩导致天然气价格飙升，这一现象进一步加剧。
And profit they do. European carbon costs make electricity prices in those evening hours – when most of the power is still coming from fossil fuels – particularly expensive. This has been amplified this year by soaring gas prices related to the Iran war-driven global energy squeeze.
例如，在保加利亚，电池占其装机发电容量的20%以上，是全球储能占比最高的国家之一。根据保加利亚电力交易所（IBEX）的数据分析，BESS现在可以捕获超过每兆瓦时（MWh）100欧元的价差。
For example, in Bulgaria, where batteries account for more than 20% of installed generation capacity, one of the world's highest storage shares, BESS can now capture spreads exceeding €100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) based on data analysis from the Bulgarian power exchange, IBEX.
消费者也从中受益。保加利亚电力交易所的数据显示，过去六个月里，保加利亚的电价相对邻近市场已经下跌了约15%。保加利亚输电系统运营商的数据显示，电池系统在通常最昂贵的晚间时段提供了更多可用电力。
Consumers have benefited as well. Bulgarian power prices have already fallen around 15% relative to neighbouring markets over the last six months. Battery systems have made more electricity available during what are usually the most expensive evening hours, according to data from Bulgaria's transmission system operator.
保加利亚并非个例。其他欧洲国家也正在经历类似的价格动态，包括西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利、英国和德国，在这些国家，电池正在吸收多余的风能和太阳能电力，否则这些电力将遭到电网运营商的弃风弃光处理。
Bulgaria is not alone. Other European countries are experiencing similar price dynamics, including Spain, Portugal, Italy, Britain and Germany where batteries are absorbing surplus wind and solar electricity that would otherwise be curtailed by the grid operators.
预计BESS将通过减少许多可再生能源固有的波动性来促进能源转型。但上述价差表明，在许多领先的市场中，电池系统正在从它们承诺要消除的化石燃料依赖中获利。
BESS are expected to facilitate the energy transition, by reducing the volatility inherent in many renewables. But what the above spreads show is that, in many leading markets, battery systems are benefiting from the very fossil-fuel dependence they promise to eliminate.
与此同时，欧盟各国政府通过旨在维持电网稳定的复杂容量机制，默默补贴煤炭和天然气，从而在暗中支撑这一系统。尽管这些化石燃料发电厂在晚间时段或最冷月份之外缺乏价格竞争力，但这些机制使它们得以继续运行。
Meanwhile, European Union governments are propping up this system by quietly subsidising coal and gas through complicated power capacity mechanisms intended to maintain grid stability. These mechanisms keep fossil-fuel-powered plants running despite their uncompetitive pricing outside of evening hours or the coldest months.
欧盟上个月批准了德国为期15年、金额达352亿欧元的容量机制，以保证电网稳定和长期的供应安全。此外，意大利的天然气供应量约占其发电量的38%，该国在2025年通过其长期的容量机制支付了约18亿欧元。该国去年记录了欧洲最高的一些电价。
The EU last month approved Germany's 15-year, €35.2 billion capacity mechanism to guarantee grid stability and long-term security of supply. Moreover, Italy, where gas supplies roughly 38% of electricity, paid roughly €1.8 billion through its long-standing capacity mechanism in 2025. The country recorded some of Europe's highest power prices last year.
从政治角度来看，政府的这些努力是可以理解的。实现电网完全脱碳可能是未来的目标，但欧洲领导人可能不愿意在今天采取任何可能被视为威胁能源安全的行动，尽管这些风险可能被夸大了。去年伊比利亚半岛的停电可能并非由可再生能源引起，但这并没有阻止许多人将责任归咎于它们。欧洲领导人还有什么其他选择？
From a political perspective, these government efforts are understandable. Total grid decarbonisation may be the future goal, but European leaders may be loath to do anything today that could appear to threaten energy security, even if those risks may be overstated. The blackout on the Iberian peninsula last year may not have been caused by renewables, but that didn't stop many from blaming them. What other options might European leaders have?
扩大电池储能规模可能会使全天候绿色电力成为可能。然而，这很可能需要政府向BESS运营商支付报酬，以表彰他们在维持可靠且负担得起的能源方面发挥的关键作用。这是因为电池系统的普及以及利润丰厚的化石燃料窗口期的消除，很可能会大幅侵蚀BESS的利润率。
Scaling battery storage could potentially enable 24-hour green electricity. However, this would likely require governments to remunerate BESS operators for the critical role they’re playing in maintaining dependable, affordable energy. That’s because the spread of battery systems – and the elimination of the lucrative fossil-fuel window – would likely erode BESS margins substantially.
技术改进也是必需的。许多电池系统只能储存两到三个小时的满负荷电力。这要求欧洲电网采用目前仍然成本高昂的长时储能（LDES）技术——例如铁空气电池或液流电池——这些技术可以连续放电10到100多个小时，以应对多日电网失衡。
Technical improvements would also be needed. Many battery systems store only two to three hours of full-power output. This requires European grids to adopt still prohibitively expensive long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies — such as iron-air or redox flow batteries — that can discharge continuously for 10 to 100+ hours to manage multi-day grid imbalances. But even the most advanced batteries will not be able to sustain solar-heavy systems through prolonged winter lulls.
但即使是最先进的电池也无法在漫长的冬季电力低谷期维持以太阳能为主的系统。这进一步证明了多样化可再生能源的必要性，包括在夜间运行且通常在冬季产生更多电力的风能。
This strengthens the case for diversified renewables, including wind that operates overnight and often produces more power in the winter. Battery storage is likely to anchor the energy transformation and the eventual phasing out of fossil fuels, but, for now, it’s profiting from their survival.
电池储能可能会成为能源转型和最终淘汰化石燃料的支柱，但目前它正从中生存获利。电池能否兑现其承诺的能源转型，将取决于克服化石燃料既得利益集团的政治意愿。
Whether batteries can deliver the energy transition they are promising will be a matter of political will to overcome the vested fossil fuel interests. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and