中国海关总署周三表示，中国9月出口激增36.3%，超出预期，人工智能（AI）投资热潮正推动该国实现另一年创纪录的贸易顺差。
China’s September exports surged by 36.3 per cent, surpassing expectations, as the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom puts the country on track for another record annual trade surplus.
高科技产品出口较去年同期增长64%，其中半导体出口激增136%，拉动了出口增长。芯片也推动了进口增长31%，同时伴随商品成本上升。9月贸易顺差达1335.3亿美元。
Shipments of hi-tech products rose by 64 per cent from a year earlier, spurred by a 136 per cent boom in semiconductor exports, the General Administration of Customs said on Wednesday. Chips also drove a 31 per cent increase in imports, along with higher commodity costs. September’s trade surplus was US$133.53 billion.
前九个月贸易顺差增长7.2%，达到9381.1亿美元，接近去年全年1.2万亿美元的年度纪录。中国正依赖出口激增来抵消国内需求疲软。贸易顺差的扩大也引发了全球贸易紧张，导致上周达成协议，以缓和向欧洲的混合动力汽车出口。
The nine-month trade surplus rose by 7.2 per cent to US$938.11 billion, closing in on last year’s annual record of US$1.2 trillion, as China counts on surging exports to help offset weak domestic demand. The widening trade surplus has also spurred global trade tensions, leading to an agreement last week to cool hybrid vehicle shipments to Europe.
海关总署副署长王俊在新闻发布会上告诉记者，国庆“黄金周”长假前一周的航运高峰，以及人工智能推动的高科技产品需求，共同推动了9月出口的激增。
A shipping rush ahead of the week-long National Day “golden week” holiday helped spur the September export boom, alongside AI-fuelled demand for hi-tech products, Wang Jun, vice-minister of the General Administration of Customs, told reporters at a press briefing.
中国将于周一公布第三季度GDP数据。据中国金融数据提供商Wind编制的估计，经济学家预测增长率为4.4%。这一数据高于第二季度的4.3%，但低于政府全年增长目标区间4.5%至5%。
China will release its third-quarter GDP figure on Monday, with economists forecasting growth of 4.4 per cent, according to estimates compiled by Chinese financial data provider Wind. That compares with 4.3 per cent in the second quarter, and the government’s full-year growth target range of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent.
根据Wind的数据，经济学家此前预计9月出口将增长25.7%。
Economists expected September exports to rise 25.7 per cent, according to Wind.
国家统计局的数据显示，受原油、有色金属和电脑芯片等全球价格上涨推动，中国9月份工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨5%，创下四年多来的最快增速。这一涨幅超过了Wind民调预测的4.3%。9月是价格增速连续第七个月加快。消费价格同比上涨0.9%，高于8月份的0.8%。由于伊朗和乌克兰的战争推高了全球汽油和柴油价格，燃料成本较去年同期上涨14.9%。食品价格下降0.9%，其中蔬菜价格下降8%，猪肉价格下降10%。
China’s factory-gate prices rose by 5 per cent in September from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than four years, amid rising global prices for crude oil, non-ferrous metals and computer chips, according to the national statistics agency. The increase surpassed the 4.3 per cent forecast in a Wind poll. September was the seventh straight month of faster price rises. Consumer prices rose by 0.9 per cent, up from 0.8 per cent in August. Fuel costs were up by 14.9 per cent from a year earlier as wars in Iran and Ukraine drove up global petrol and diesel prices. Food prices fell by 0.9 per cent, with vegetable prices dropping by 8 per cent and pork prices down 10 per cent.
据《人民日报》周二报道，根据一项先进制造业倡议，广东省的目标是在2028年前实现年产人形机器人8万台以上。该报道援引官员上周在一次会议上提供的信息称，更广泛的计划包括建设1,000家“先进”智能工厂和1,000家节能绿色工厂。另一个目标是，年主营业务收入在2000万元（合300万美元）及以上的制造商中，人工智能应用率达到至少50%。
Guangdong province aims to produce more than 80,000 humanoid robots per year by 2028 under an advanced manufacturing initiative. The wider plan includes building 1,000 “advanced” smart factories and 1,000 energy-efficient green factories, People’s Daily reported on Tuesday, citing information given by officials at a conference last week. Another goal is for AI adoption to reach at least 50 per cent among manufacturers with annual main business revenue of 20 million yuan (US$3 million) or more.
中国计划通过简化发动机和惯性导航系统等“低风险”零部件的审批手续来促进航空航天出口。商务部周二公布的征求意见稿规定，将允许航空公司、维修服务商和其他符合条件的取得自动出口许可证。目前，由于对具有民用和军用双重用途的物品实行严格的出口许可规定，企业必须为每批货运单独申请。
China aims to boost aerospace exports by easing paperwork for “low risk” components such as engines and inertial navigation systems. Draft rules published by the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday would allow airlines, maintenance providers and other eligible companies to for automatic export certificates. At present, companies have to make separate applications for every shipment due to strict licensing rules governing exports of “dual-use” items with civilian and military applications.
激化紧张局势：预计另一个月的出口激增将进一步加剧与许多贸易伙伴的紧张关系，包括欧洲在内，欧洲对中国汽车和其他商品大量涌入的愤怒正促使一些领导人提出所谓的“开关”以阻断来自中国的商品。经济学家对中国巨额贸易顺差中有多少由出口增长推动、有多少由进口疲软导致存在分歧。货币疲软有助于使中国商品在海外更具竞争力，同时提高了国内进口产品的成本。
Stoking tensions: Another month of skyrocketing exports is expected to further stoke tensions with many trading partners, including in Europe, where anger over the flood of Chinese vehicles and other items is prompting some leaders to propose a so-called “kill switch” to shut out goods from China. Economists disagree on how much of China’s enormous trade surplus is driven by stronger exports and how much stems from weaker imports. A weak currency has helped make Chinese goods more competitive overseas, while raising the cost of imported products at home. (The New York Times) Lacklustre demand: The lower-than-expected CPI reading indicates that domestic demand remains “lacklustre”, according to Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note after the data release.
（《纽约时报》）需求疲软：低于预期的CPI读数表明国内需求仍然“疲软”，这是Pinpoint Asset Management总裁兼首席经济学家张智威在数据发布后的一份备忘录中所说的。然而，更高的PPI表明即使复苏仍然不均衡，经济也在逐步摆脱通缩压力，这是国泰君安国际控股首席经济学家周浩的说法。（CNBC）产业分化：中国9月份出口繁荣的细节凸显了经济中日益明显的失衡——科技领域强劲，其他领域疲软。
However, the higher PPI is pointing to an economy that is gradually moving away from deflationary pressures even if the recovery remains uneven, said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings. (CNBC) Industrial divide: Details in China’s booming September exports highlight imbalances that are increasingly evident across the economy – strength in tech, weakness elsewhere.
电气硬件的出口持续激增，受全球AI扩张和中国提供零部件能力的推动。传统出口行业——如服装、家具和玩具——表现落后，尽管去年同期基数较低提升了同比读数。
Shipments of electrical hardware continued to surge, fuelled by the global AI expansion and China’s capacity to deliver components. Traditional export sectors – such as clothing, furniture and toys – lagged, though a low year-earlier base lifted the year-on-year reading.
放缓风险：该国对高科技出口的依赖……可能面临挑战，因为一些美国科技行业领袖出于安全原因呼吁全球放缓人工智能的发展。“全球人工智能投资周期的放缓可能对中国的出口增长构成比其他国家施加的贸易限制更大的威胁，”The Conference Board亚太地区高级经济学家马克斯·曾格林（Max Zenglein）表示。（美联社）K型格局：“电子产品价格……在全球人工智能热潮和内存芯片短缺的推动下迅速上涨，”Capital Economics中国经济学家阮黄南（Nguyen Hoang Nam）表示。
Slowdown risk: The country’s reliance on hi-tech exports … could face challenges as some US technology industry leaders called for a global slowdown in the development of artificial intelligence for safety reasons. “A slowdown in the global AI investment cycle could pose a greater threat to China’s export growth than trade restrictions imposed by other countries,” said Max Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board. (Associated Press) K-shaped: “Electronics prices … rose rapidly on the back of the global AI boom and memory chip shortages,” according to Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics.
“但其他消费品类别的价格仍在下跌，表明国内需求疲软继续拖累基础价格压力。”（法新社）出口一直是中国经济今年的罕见亮点。9月份的出口增幅达到了新高。
“But prices in other consumer-goods categories were still falling, suggesting that weak domestic demand continued to weigh on underlying price pressures.” (Agence France-Presse) Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s economy this year. September took it to a new level.
出口货物年增36.3%，超过了经济学家预测的25.7%，也高于8月份的25%增幅。需求受到全球人工智能建设中使用的半导体和其他高科技设备的推动。进口货物激增31%，再次超过了分析师的预测。
The 36.3 per cent year-on-year surge in outbound shipments shot past economists’ 25.7 per cent forecasts and outdid August’s 25 per cent increase. Demand was driven by semiconductors and other hi-tech equipment used in the global AI buildout. Imports shot up by 31 per cent, again outdoing analyst forecasts.
中国的贸易顺差也有望连续第二年突破1万亿美元大关，并可能超过去年1.2万亿美元的纪录。目前已达9380亿美元，表明其有望在10月份突破1万亿美元。这将比去年提前一个月。
China’s trade surplus is also well on track to top US$1 trillion for the second straight year and probably surpass last year’s US$1.2 trillion record. It has already reached US$938 billion, suggesting it will breach US$1 trillion in October. That would be a month earlier than last year.
9月份的1335亿美元贸易顺差也是全球任何国家有史以来的第二高纪录。中国曾在2025年1月创下1379亿美元的纪录，当时出口商抢先发货，预计美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫将引发贸易战。
September’s US$133.5 billion surplus was also the second-biggest ever for any country worldwide. China set the record at US$137.9 billion in January 2025, when exporters rushed out shipments in expectation that US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House would lead to a trade war.
最新数据无疑将加剧海外对中国廉价优质商品涌入全球市场的更多抱怨，因为国内生产者正试图摆脱疲软的需求和产能过剩。
The latest figures will no doubt fuel further complaints overseas about the flood of inexpensive but high-quality Chinese goods that is hitting global markets as producers seek to escape sluggish demand and overcapacity at home.
例如，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特一直痛斥1.2万亿美元的“不可持续”顺差，称中国正试图通过出口摆脱国内经济疲软。今年8月，他在北卡罗来纳州的一次会议上召集二十国集团财政部长，支持一项批评“非市场经济体源源不断地输出廉价出口商品”的联合声明。中国是唯一的反对者。
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for one, has been railing against an “unsustainable” US$1.2 trillion surplus, saying China is trying to export its way out of domestic economic weakness. In August, he rallied G20 finance ministers at a North Carolina meeting to support a joint statement panning “non-market-based economies pushing out a never-ending stream of cheap exports”. China was the lone dissenter.
欧盟领导人周四将在布鲁塞尔会晤，讨论利用更多工具加强贸易防御，以遏制中国进口商品的涌入。由于担心大众汽车、宝马、梅赛德斯-奔驰和Stellantis等欧洲汽车制造商面临生存威胁，该集团此前已促使混合动力汽车进口放缓。
European Union leaders meet on Thursday in Brussels to discuss augmenting trade defences with further tools to stem the flood of Chinese imports. The bloc has already won a slowdown in hybrid-vehicle imports amid concerns about an existential threat to European carmakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis.
中国9月对欧盟贸易顺差同比激增52%，达到创纪录的348亿美元。月度出口额首次突破600亿美元。
China’s September trade surplus with the EU surged by 52 per cent from a year earlier to a record US$34.8 billion. Monthly exports topped US$60 billion for the first time.
9月的贸易数据也凸显了人们对中国K型经济的担忧。在人工智能投资的推动下，高科技产业蓬勃发展，而传统制造业和消费行业则因价格战以及房地产低迷导致国内需求停滞而艰难挣扎。
The September trade data also underscored concerns about China’s K-shaped economy. Hi-tech industries are booming amid AI investments, while traditional manufacturing and consumer sectors are struggling due to price wars and stagnant domestic demand undercut by a property slump.
通胀数据也反映了类似的情况。9月消费者价格仅上涨0.9%，远低于生产者价格5%的涨幅。这意味着中国企业难以向下游传导能源和原材料成本的上升，而这些成本大体上是由伊朗和乌克兰战争造成的。
Inflation numbers told a similar story. September consumer prices only rose by 0.9 per cent, far below the 5 per cent jump recorded in producer prices. That means Chinese companies are struggling to pass on higher costs for energy and raw materials, which are largely the result of wars in Iran and Ukraine.
这种错配的必然结果是利润率和企业收益承受压力。这也是中国股市濒临熊市（即自高点下跌20%）的原因之一。
The inevitable result of this mismatch is pressure on margins and corporate earnings. This is one reason Chinese stocks are on the verge of a bear market, or a decline of 20 per cent from a peak.
电动汽车行业是国内压力的一个明显例子，该行业的公司正因产能过剩和需求疲软所驱动的恶性利润耗竭价格战而遭受损失。上周与欧盟达成的出口协议，加上即将到来的出口税收返还削减，几乎不会起到多大帮助。
The electric-vehicle industry is a clear example of the domestic pressures as companies in the sector suffer from vicious profit-sapping price wars driven by excess capacity and sluggish demand. Last week’s export agreement with the EU, coupled with a looming cut in export tax rebates, will do little to help.
现在所有人的目光都转向了下周发布的第三季度经济数据。第二季度的增速未能达到政府设定的4.5%至5%的目标区间，仅为4.3%。
All eyes now turn to next week’s release of third-quarter economic data. Growth fell short of the government’s target range of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in the second quarter, coming in at just 4.3 per cent.
本周，国际货币基金组织将其对中国2026年年度增长的预测下调至4.5%。此前在7月曾预测为4.6%。2027年的增长预估也从4.1%下调至4.0%。
The International Monetary Fund this week shaved its forecast for China’s 2026 annual growth to 4.5 per cent. It projected 4.6 per cent in July. The 2027 growth estimate was lowered to 4.0 per cent from 4.1 per cent.
中国政府迄今为止一直避免实施全面刺激措施来提振经济扩张，而是选择有针对性的刺激措施来推动某些高质量行业的发展。周一将公布的第三季度GDP增长数据，如果增速再次低于全年目标，可能会重新引发对某种大规模刺激方案的呼声。
China’s government has so far avoided across-the-board stimulus measures to revive economic expansion, instead choosing targeted stimulus efforts to prime certain high-quality sectors. The third-quarter GDP growth figure due on Monday may revive calls for some kind of big-bang effort if growth falls below the full-year target once again.