人工智能安全与监管倡导者正成为美国选举中的一股力量。Axios 独家获得的一份新分析显示，他们在本轮选举周期中为支持监管的候选人花费了近 5000 万美元。
Advocates for AI safety and regulation are emerging as a force in U.S. elections, spending nearly $50 million this election cycle on candidates who favor regulation, a new analysis shared exclusively with Axios shows. Why it matters:
为何重要：这笔安全支出凸显了人工智能竞赛中不寻常的权力动态——研究人员在塑造政策和监管方面的做法，有时与他们所在公司的优先事项不同。
The safety spending points to the unusual power dynamics in the AI race, where researchers shape policy and regulation in ways that differ at times from the priorities of the companies where they work.
- 这些研究人员补充了多个长期获得充足资金的人工智能安全组织的倡导和捐助，其中包括系数捐赠（Coefficient Giving），这是一家与众多顶尖人工智能高管关系密切的慈善机构，尤其是 Anthropic。
• The researchers add to the advocacy and giving of an array of AI safety groups that have been well-funded for years, including from Coefficient Giving, a philanthropy with close ties to many top AI executives, especially at Anthropic.
新闻推动力：根据首次提供给 Axios 的最新数据，人工智能安全组织和个人捐助者在本轮选举周期中在民主党和共和党竞选上花费了 4800 万美元。
Driving the news: AI safety groups and individual donors have spent $48 million this cycle on Democratic and Republican races, according to new figures shared first with Axios.
- 这包括来自研究人员的捐款，例如 OpenAI 的 Juan Felipe Cerón Uribe 和 Redwood 的 Aryan Bhatt。
• That includes donations from researchers, such as OpenAI's Juan Felipe Cerón Uribe and Redwood's Aryan Bhatt.
- 这也包括 Guardrails Alliance，这是一个由科技工作者支持的人工智能安全组织，其超级政治行动委员会和 501(c)(4) 组织共计筹集了 1170 万美元。
• It also includes Guardrails Alliance, a tech-worker backed AI safety group, which has raised $11.7 million between its super PAC and 501(c)(4). The big picture:
全景视角：由于来自正在开发人工智能的同一行业的灾难性人工智能风险病毒式警告，以及数据中心的 NIMBYism（不在后院）运动在蓝州和红州选区同样动员社区，接受人工智能行业资金变得复杂。
Taking AI industry money has grown complicated due to viral warnings of catastrophic AI risk from the very same industry developing it and data center NIMBYism mobilizing communities in blue and red districts alike.
- OpenAI 总裁 Greg Brockman 部分因 OpenAI 内部反叛而取消了向由科技高管和投资者支持的超级政治行动委员会“领导未来”（Leading the Future）计划中的第二笔 2500 万美元捐款。
• OpenAI President Greg Brockman pulled a planned second $25 million donation from Leading the Future, a super PAC backed by tech execs and investors, in part because of an internal revolt at OpenAI.
- 支持人工智能加速的力量——他们今年早些时候似乎倾向于对亲监管候选人使用暗示性威胁——迄今为止的支出未达到对手的预期，而安全倡导者认为这是一个填补空白的机会。
• Forces favoring AI acceleration — who earlier in the year appeared to favor veiled threats to pro-regulation candidates — haven't spent as much as opponents expected, and safety advocates see an opportunity to fill the void.
聚焦：雅各布·埃利奥索夫（Jacob Eliosoff），加密货币投资基金Calibrated Markets的负责人表示，他在看到“引领未来”（Leading the Future）的早期筹款和候选人倡导后，决定参与与人工智能相关的政治捐款。
Zoom in: Jacob Eliosoff, who runs the cryptocurrency investment fund Calibrated Markets, said he decided to engage in political giving related to AI after he saw early fundraising and candidate advocacy from Leading the Future.
- 埃利奥索夫是纽约有效利他主义社区的活跃参与者，他表示自己不希望看到2024年的情况重演——当时加密货币行业的资金对大多数候选人的监管立场产生了过度影响。
• Eliosoff, an active participant in New York's effective altruism community, said he didn't want to see a repeat of 2024, where crypto industry funding had outsized influence on the regulatory positions of most candidates.
- “如果政客们觉得自己不能说任何话，因为有一个资金非常雄厚且毫不留情的政治实体将会针对他们，这会促使我介入，”埃利奥索夫说。
• "If politicians feel like they can't say anything because there's a very deep-pocketed and ruthless political entity that's going to go after them, that motivates me to step in," Eliosoff said.
读解之间：埃利奥索夫表示，他向民主党和共和党的候选人捐款，因为他认为这些候选人看来愿意认真对待人工智能风险，并且可能在通过监管方面处于有利位置。
Between the lines: Eliosoff has donated to Democrats and Republicans who he says appear to be open to taking AI risks seriously and could be well positioned to pass regulation.
- 捐款人告诉Axios，他们主要的动机并非党派归属或具体政策立场，而是担心行业支出会让候选人对一项不受欢迎的技术保持沉默。
• Donors told Axios they are not primarily motivated by party affiliation or specific policy positions but by fears that industry spending will silence candidates on an unpopular technology. The other side:
另一方观点：“引领未来”在第二季度末仍保留超过3100万美元，并支持了超过15名民主党人和超过25名共和党人。
Leading the Future had retained more than $31 million at the end of the second quarter and has supported more than 15 Democrats and more than 25 Republicans.
- 该组织在一份声明中表示，人工智能监管在参议院需要60票才能通过，因此任何认真对待安全问题“并为所有美国人利用人工智能的益处”的人都应专注于为行动建立广泛的联盟。
• In a statement, the group said AI regulation will need 60 votes to pass in the Senate, so anyone serious about safety "and harnessing the benefits of AI for all Americans should be focused on building a broad coalition for action."
接下来：守护联盟（Guardrails Alliance）执行主管肖娜·托马斯（Shaunna Thomas）表示，此次选举周期将成为检验点——接受人工智能行业资金并反对真正监管的候选人是否会落选，以及这一点是否会被清楚地理解为他们失败的核心因素。
What's next: This cycle will be a test of whether candidates who take AI industry money and oppose real regulation lose and whether that is clearly understood as a central factor in their loss, Guardrails Alliance Executive Director Shaunna Thomas said.
- “共和党领导层和特朗普政府在美国人对人工智能的看法上站在了多数美国人的对立面，”托马斯说。“这对民主党来说是一个非常重要的切入点——他们应该大胆地介入。”
• "Republican leadership and the Trump administration are on the other side of the majority of Americans on AI," Thomas said. "That's a very important place for Democrats to be stepping into – boldly." Yes, but:
但： Guardrails面临一些民主党人的反对，他们警告其策略（包括反对一些民主党人）可能有助于选出不太倾向于监管人工智能的共和党人。
Guardrails faces pushback from some Democrats who warn its strategy, which includes opposing some Democrats, could help elect Republicans less inclined to regulate AI.
结论：特朗普的盟友已对人工智能公司Anthropic及其与有效利他主义运动关联的安全倡导者开辟了新的阵线，但他们的政治捐款——以及人工智能内部人士的坚持——表明，支持安全的人工智能倡导的政治影响力将会增长。
The bottom line: Trump allies have opened a new front against Anthropic and safety advocates affiliated with the EA movement, but their political giving — as well as the insistence of AI insiders — shows that the political clout of pro-safety AI advocacy is set to grow.