随着假期仅剩几个月，科技公司正押注，今年终于会是人工智能开始出现在圣诞树下的一年。
With the holidays just months away, tech companies are betting this is finally the year that AI starts showing up under the Christmas tree.
苹果、亚马逊和微软在过去一周都宣布了新设备，旨在将生成式人工智能牢固地带入家庭。自ChatGPT推出以来已近四年，领先的消费科技公司正在宣传改进的个人助手和具备AI功能的更快速片上芯片，以此推销新款笔记本电脑、平板电脑、手机和智能家居电脑。
Apple, Amazon and Microsoft have all announced new devices in the past week with the aim of bringing generative artificial intelligence firmly into the home. Nearly four years after the launch of ChatGPT, the leading consumer tech companies are touting improved personal assistants and speedier on-device chips with AI capabilities as they try to sell new laptops, tablets, phones and smart home computers.
成功远非十拿九稳。除了由于顽固通胀导致的12年来最弱的消费者情绪数据，以及人们对AI潜在安全风险日益增长的担忧之外，还伴随着新技术带来的学习曲线。IDC分析师吉蒂什·乌布拉尼表示，科技公司希望向消费者介绍AI，以便为未来几年更激进的设备发布奠定基础。
Success is far from guaranteed. In addition to the weakest consumer sentiment data in 12 years due largely to stubborn inflation, and growing fears about the potential safety risks of AI, there's a learning curve that comes with the new technology. Jitesh Ubrani, an analyst at IDC, said tech companies want to introduce AI to consumers to lay the groundwork for more aggressive device launches in the coming years.
“这实际上是关于把设备送到消费者手中，送到他们家中，慢慢教他们如何使用它，并从他们那里获取反馈，”乌布拉尼说，并补充称，苹果、亚马逊和微软的新 gadgets 不会在短期内大量销售。
"This is really about getting devices into consumers' hands, into consumers' homes, slowly teaching them how to use it, and getting feedback from them," Ubrani said, adding that new gadgets from Apple, Amazon and Microsoft aren't expected to sell in large volumes, at least not yet.
在宏观逆风的情况下，现在让富裕的早期采用者加入可能被视为一种胜利。各类硬件价格普遍上涨，受组件成本飙升推动，尤其是内存和存储，因为耗电的AI服务器吞噬了大部分产能。这些价格上涨导致今年新款智能手机和笔记本电脑的出货量大幅下降。
Getting affluent early adopters on board now could be considered a win given the macro headwinds. Hardware prices across the board have risen, driven by soaring costs for components, especially memory and storage, as power-hungry AI servers suck up most of the capacity. Those price hikes have led to plunging shipments this year of new smartphones and laptops.
微软上周率先推出新品，展示了一款搭载英伟达芯片的Windows笔记本电脑，起售价为2599美元，该设备以一款名为RTX Spark的AI芯片为核心，能够在不依赖云端的情况下运行强大的人工智能。
Microsoft kicked off the launches last week by showing off an Nvidia-powered Windows laptop starting at $2,599, based around an AI chip called RTX Spark that can run powerful AI without relying on the cloud.
亚马逊随后发布了Alexa平板电脑，这是该公司首批以其智能助手命名的硬件产品。最大的Alexa Tablet 12 Pro售价550美元，而其前身Fire HD10的售价为155美元。
Amazon followed by releasing Alexa tablets, the company's first pieces of hardware named after its smart assistant. The largest Alexa Tablet 12 Pro costs $550, compared to $155 for its predecessor, the Fire HD10.
本周二，苹果推出了由Siri AI驱动的HomeView智能家居中枢。这款售价299美元的设备配备了一块可安装的7英寸屏幕，并内置面部识别软件，以便为多个家庭成员进行个性化设置。
And on Tuesday of this week, Apple unveiled its HomeView smart home hub, powered by Siri AI. The $299 devices include a 7-inch screen that can be mounted, along with facial recognition software so it can be personalized for multiple family members.
分析人士赞赏苹果在面对所有组件短缺的情况下，以合理价格推出HomeView。
Analysts applauded Apple for introducing HomeView at a reasonable price given all the component shortages.
“苹果优先考虑生态系统普及，而非立即获取高硬件利润率，以低于规格丰富型机器应有成本的价格点推出了本地AI中枢，” CounterPoint Research专注于AI的Mohit Agrawal如此表示。Forrester的分析师Dipanjan Chatterjee表示，购物季将成为消费者对新一类小工具需求的早期检验。
"Apple has prioritized ecosystem adoption over immediate high hardware margins, delivering a local-AI hub at a price point that undercuts what a spec-heavy machine should logically cost," said Mohit Agrawal, who specializes in AI at CounterPoint Research, in an Dipanjan Chatterjee, an analyst at Forrester, said the shopping season will mark an early test of consumer demand for a new class of gadgets.
“我认为消费者对AI能够做什么感兴趣，” Chatterjee说。“但尚不明确的是，他们是否愿意专门因为某款设备是AI设备而购买其硬件。” 尽管面临诸多经济逆风，假日季的消费前景依然强劲。根据8月份发布的一项麦肯锡调查，近半数美国消费者预计今年假日季的支出将与去年持平或增加。
"I think consumers are interested in what AI can do," said Chatterjee. "What's less clear is whether they are interested in buying hardware specifically because it is an AI device." Despite the many economic headwinds, the spending outlook heading into the holidays remains robust. Nearly half of U.S. consumers expect to spend the same or more this year compared to last year's holiday season, according to a McKinsey survey published in August.
此外，贝恩公司上月发布的一份报告预测，美国零售销售额在假日季将首次突破1万亿美元大关，创历史新高。然而，分析人士警告称，“名义销售增长的一半以上将来自更高的通胀”，这将推动价格上涨。该公司预测，部分电子产品和家电的销售将保持平稳。
And Bain published a report last month, predicting that U.S. retail sales over the holidays will set new records and top $1 trillion for the first time. However, analysts cautioned "more than half of the nominal sales growth will come from higher inflation" pushing up prices. The firm predicted that sales in some electronics and appliances will remain flat.
在人们开始更加注重开支的时候，你会说：“我真的需要下一个这样的产品吗？或者我可以推迟更换周期吗？”贝恩公司全球零售业务负责人Aaron Cheris在接受采访时表示。“我们看到，非必需品的购买周期被拉长了。”新款AI小工具的三家生产商都强调了他们日益智能的助手，以及用于运行这些助手的更强大芯片。
"In a time when folks are being a little money conscious, you say, 'Do I really need the next one of those, or could I drag out the replacement cycle on whatever it is?'" said Aaron Cheris, head of Bain's global retail practice, in an interview. "We've seen things that are discretionary purchases drag out longer." All three producers of the new AI gadgets emphasized their increasingly intelligent assistants, as well as more powerful chips to run them.
亚马逊表示，它将放弃价格亲民的Fire系列设备，转而推出三款新的Alexa平板电脑。这些平板采用更高端的设计，并将其升级版的AI助手置于核心位置。用户可以说出“Alexa”或点击“询问Alexa”按钮来唤醒助手，提出问题、获取个性化推荐或控制智能家居。
Amazon said it's ditching the budget-friendly Fire family of devices in favor of three new Alexa Tablets that feature a more premium design with its souped-up AI assistant front and center. Users can say "Alexa" or tap the "Ask Alexa" button to summon the assistant and ask questions, get personalized recommendations or control their smart home.
亚马逊还推出了一种免提模式，称为“屏幕智能”，该模式使Alexa能够读取平板显示屏上的内容并采取行动，例如根据烹饪视频自动生成购物清单。微软搭载英伟达芯片的新款笔记本电脑可以运行AI编码模型。
Amazon also introduced a hands-free mode, called "On-Screen Intelligence," that enables Alexa to read content on the tablet's display and take action, like preparing a shopping list based on a cooking video. Microsoft's new laptops with Nvidia chips can run AI coding models.
苹果的HomeView利用苹果智能主动向用户展示短信、日历约会和照片。苹果期望用户与设备进行对话，并突出Siri回答广泛问题的能力，这种体验类似于现代聊天机器人。
Apple's HomeView uses Apple Intelligence to proactively show users their text messages, calendar appointments and photos. Apple expects users to talk to the device, and highlights Siri's ability to answer a broad range of questions, similar to the experience they have with modern chatbots.
苹果还指出，HomeView使用了A18芯片，该芯片在2024年9月首次发布时是全球最快的智能手机芯片。
Apple also noted that HomeView uses the A18 chip, which was the fastest smartphone chip in the world when it was first introduced in September 2024.
创意策略公司研究员Carolina Milanesi表示，公司需要观察用户是否愿意为更强的处理能力付出更高的代价。
Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at researcher Creative Strategies, said companies will have to see if users are lured by the prospect of paying more for enhanced processing power.
“我认为，目前的消费者尚未被说服，认为设备内部处理能力的重要性，尤其是当你要求他们为设备支付更多费用时，”Milanesi说。
"Consumers out there are, I think, yet to be convinced that on-device matters as much, especially when you ask them to spend more for a device," Milanesi said.
Ollama公司的首席执行官杰夫·摩根表示，确实有一部分用户群体希望拥有能够让他们自己控制计算机功能的设备。他们公司的开源软件允许用户在各种类型的计算机上安装和使用相关的人工智能模型。
Ollama CEO Jeff Morgan said there's an audience for computers that give users control. His startup's open-source software allows people to install and use models on a variety of computers.
“我认为，自己拥有人工智能系统与仅仅租用它之间存在本质上的区别，”杰夫·摩根说道。
"I think there's something about owning your AI versus renting it," he said.
此外，公司还在追求一个更长期的发展目标：那就是促使消费者购买订阅服务，从而实现稳定的收入来源。
Then there's the longer-term opportunity that companies are pursuing, which involves getting consumers to buy subscriptions so they can lock in recurring revenue.
亚马逊的新款智能助手Alexa需要用户支付每月19.99美元的订阅费，或者成为亚马逊的Prime会员才能使用其全部功能；而苹果用户则需要购买升级版的iCloud订阅服务才能录制安全视频。
Amazon's new Alexa requires a $19.99 monthly subscription, or Prime membership. Apple users have to buy an upgraded iCloud subscription to record secure video.
苹果公司最重大的人工智能产品发布可能会在下周进行，届时他们全新的iPhone Duo（售价1999美元）将正式上市。这款可折叠的iPhone能够同时显示两个应用程序，包括与Siri的对话界面，为用户提供类似传统桌面计算机的交互体验。
Apple's biggest AI launch may come next week, when the company's new $1,999 iPhone Duo hits stores. The folding iPhone can display two apps side by side, including chats with Siri, offering a desktop-like interface for AI agents.