你可能不需要政府来告诉你生活成本在上涨，但今天早上公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）读数将告诉你9月份物价官方上涨了多少。一个火热的CPI数字可能会扭转债券收益率近期从数十年高位回落的趋势，并给美联储施加压力，迫使其采取更迅速的行动。一个降温的数字则会受到欢迎。股指期货指向温和上涨，以待报告出炉。请关注我们的实时市场数据与报道。
You probably don’t need the government to tell you that the cost of living is up, but this morning’s consumer-price index reading will tell you how much prices officially rose in September. A hot CPI number could reverse a recent easing of bond yields from multidecade highs and pile pressure on the Fed for swifter action. A cool one would be celebrated. Stock futures point to modest gains ahead of the report. Follow our live markets data and coverage.
咦？根据一个反向指标，现在可能比新冠恐慌期、金融危机高峰期、9·11事件后果期或20世纪70年代末能源危机期，更是买入股票的良机。
Huh? According to one contrarian gauge, now might be a better time to scoop up stocks than the Covid panic, the height of the financial crisis, the aftermath of 9/11 attacks or the late 1970s energy crisis.
作为所有情绪指标的鼻祖，密歇根大学长期进行的消费者调查，在新闻标题中常被描绘为：当其异常低位时，是给投资者的闪烁红灯；当其狂热高涨时，则是绿灯。
The granddaddy of all sentiment indicators, the University of Michigan’s long-running consumer survey, is often portrayed in headlines as a flashing red light for investors when it’s unusually low or a green light when it’s exuberant.
然而，极端读数几乎总是意味着相反的情况。历史低位出现于1980年4月、1990年10月和2008年11月——全都是买入良机。而该调查的峰值出现在2000年1月，那是在高飞科技股上获利了结的绝佳时机。
Extreme readings have almost always meant the opposite, though. Historic lows were hit in April 1980, Oct. 1990 and Nov. 2008—all buying opportunities. And the survey’s peak was in Jan. 2000, a great time to take profits in highflying tech stocks.
不过最近，结果显示出严格的红蓝分裂，共和党人或民主党人的经济情绪随着白宫主人的更迭而翻转。这使得头条数字对投资者几乎毫无用处。上周公布的10月初值将是有史以来第二差，而5月的读数则是最低。
Lately, though, the results have shown a strict red-blue divide as the economic mood of Republicans or Democrats flipped with the occupant of The White House. That makes the headline number all but useless to investors. Last week’s preliminary October reading would be the second worst ever, and May’s was the lowest.
幸运的是，询问专业投资者的感受和持仓似乎依然有效。美国银行（BofA）本周发布的全球基金经理调查，提供了大量详尽信息。
Luckily, asking professional investors how they feel and what they own still seems to work. Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey, released this week, offers a treasure trove of detail.
就像密歇根调查过去那样，当过多受访者似乎达成一致时，BofA最可靠的信号就会闪现。首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特及其团队于周二发布的最新月度版，看起来就是这种情况之一。
Like the Michigan survey used to, BofA’s most reliable signals flash when too many respondents seem to be in agreement. The latest monthly edition, released on Tuesday by Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett and his team, seems like one of those.
预期出现“繁荣”状况——即高于趋势的增长和通胀——的受访者比例自2022年2月以来达到最高，而2022年2月正是上一次熊市的起点。随后一个月开始的美联储加息对科技股的冲击尤为严重。
The percentage of respondents expecting “boom” conditions—above trend growth and inflation—was the highest since Feb. 2022, the starting point for the last bear market. Federal Reserve rate hikes that began the following month hit technology stocks especially hard.
基金经理目前并不担心这个火热的板块：受访者对科技股的净超配比例自2020年夏季以来达到最高，当时正是新冠疫情后市场反弹的高峰。他们上一次大幅减持科技股是在四年前，恰逢ChatGPT发布，为当前以人工智能为主题的牛市提供了动力。
Fund managers aren’t worried about that hot sector at the moment: Respondents were the most net overweight tech stocks since the summer of 2020, the height of the feverish post-Covid market rebound. They were last heavily underweight tech four years ago, just in time for ChatGPT’s release to supercharge the current AI-themed bull market.
并非所有股票都受到青睐。基金经理对可选消费股票最为悲观，情绪已回落至2008年金融危机的低点。
Not all stocks are loved. Managers are most pessimistic about consumer discretionary stocks, with sentiment back to the depth of the 2008 recession.
哈特内特不仅收集数据，还会对其进行解读，他的直觉是逆势而为。他有一条原则：当基金经理的平均现金持仓水平低于5%时，建议卖出全球股票。目前这一比例为3.9%。
Hartnett doesn’t just collect the data, he parses it, and his instinct is to go against the current. One rule he has is to recommend selling global equities when fund managers’ average cash levels drop below 5%. They’re now at 3.9%.
当美国银行的牛熊指标——一个综合性指标——升至5以上时，他也会给出同样的建议。目前该指标为5.1。
He offers the same recommendation when BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator, a composite measure, rises above 5. It’s now at 5.1.
调查中也有一线希望。多年来，基金经理们一直担心的问题——2013年的“财政悬崖”、2016年中国的硬着陆、新冠疫情、欧盟解体，以及特朗普总统发动关税冲击后引发的全球衰退——往往在这些事件发生后不久就从新闻头条中消失。基金经理们目前最大的担忧是债券收益率的无序上升。
There’s one ray of sunshine in the survey. Fund managers’ biggest worries over the years—the 2013 “fiscal cliff,” a 2016 hard landing in China, Covid, EU disintegration, and a global recession following President Trump’s tariff onslaught—have regularly vanished from the headlines soon after. Managers’ latest top fear is a disorderly rise in bond yields.
美国银行：该银行因被处以12亿美元罚款，盘前股价下跌。监管机构发现其缺乏足够的系统来监控和报告可能的金融犯罪。该银行将于今天早上发布业绩报告。
Bank of America: Shares slipped premarket after the bank was hit with a $1.2 billion fine. Regulators found it had insufficient systems to monitor and report possible financial crimes. The bank is due to report results this morning.
天空舞：该公司近期将名称从派拉蒙改名为天空舞，其股票在盘前交易中下跌18%后被暂停交易。这一下跌主要是技术性调整，因为作为其收购华纳兄弟探索公司交易一部分发行的股票认股权证开始单独交易。
Skydance: Shares of the company, which recently changed its name from Paramount, fell 18% premarket before being halted. The decline is largely a technical adjustment, as stock warrants issued as part of its deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery start trading separately.
ASML：荷兰半导体设备公司今年第三次上调年度预测，并表示正在研究提升产能的方法。其股价在阿姆斯特丹上涨3%，而在美国上市的股票盘前也出现上涨。
ASML: The Dutch semiconductor-machine company lifted its annual forecasts for the third time this year and said it was looking at ways to boost production. Shares climbed 3% in Amsterdam, while U.S. listed shares also rose premarket.
沙特阿拉伯石油公司：也门胡塞武装分子昨日袭击了沙特国家石油巨头总部的一栋办公楼，随着王国与伊朗支持的武装组织之间的冲突加剧。该公司更常被称为阿美科（Aramco），其股价在利雅得下跌1%。
Saudi Arabian Oil Co.: An office building at the Saudi state oil giant’s headquarters was struck yesterday by Yemen’s Houthi militants, as fighting intensified between the kingdom and the Iran-backed group. Shares of Aramco, as it is more commonly known, fell 1% in Riyadh.
摩根士丹利、State Street和Progressive预计将在今天早上发布财报。
Morgan Stanley, State Street and Progressive are expected to report earnings this morning.
导致美国房价下跌的许多因素已经具备，例如高抵押贷款利率，除了真正起决定作用的因素之外：急于出售的房主。
Many of the ingredients needed to cause a fall in U.S. home prices, such as high mortgage rates, are in place, except for the one that really matters: owners who are desperate to sell.
在这一天，1980年，当年十年的IPO热潮拉开序幕。基因泰克（Genentech）以35美元的首次公开发行价上市。当天收盘价为71.25美元，涨幅达103.6%，这是历史上股票首日涨幅最高的案例之一。
On this day in 1980, the IPO boom of that decade got off to a roaring start. Genentech went public at an initial offering price of $35. It closed the day’s trading at $71.25, a 103.6% gain—one of the highest first-day returns for a stock in history.
《华尔街日报》|买方：为了寻找一些最佳的财富管理公司，我们分析了顾问的资质、投资组合选择、费用及其他关键因素。
WSJ | Buy Side: To find some of the best wealth-management firms, we analyzed adviser credentials, portfolio options, fees and other key factors.
商业和金融长期吸引着我。在撰写此通讯之前，我曾为《华尔街日报》“街头耳语”团队工作十年，撰写过两本投资书籍，并在一家全球投资银行管理过一支股票分析师团队。
Business and finance have fascinated me for a long time. Before writing this newsletter, I edited The Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street team for a decade, wrote two investment books and managed a team of stock analysts at a global investment bank.
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