当前，全球秩序正经历深刻变化：供应链陷入混乱，各类联盟关系也变得不稳定。这一切迫使那些所谓的中等强国不得不探索新的生存之道。
A shifting global order marked by upended supply chains and unstable alliances is forcing so-called middle-power countries to chart new paths of survival.
印度、加拿大和英国等国都在苦苦思索：在美中两国激烈竞争、多场战争持续不断以及人工智能技术飞速发展的背景下，该如何在世界上立足？这些因素共同导致了能源与技术供应链出现诸多瓶颈。
Countries like India, Canada and the UK are grappling with how best to navigate a world in which intense competition between the US and China, ongoing wars and the explosion in AI have caused choke points to squeeze energy and tech supply chains.
周三，在新德里举行的彭博新经济论坛第二天，政府与企业界领袖们围绕这一议题展开了热烈讨论。
The issue dominated conversations by government and business leaders on the second day of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi on Wednesday.
印度外交部长苏布拉马尼扬·贾伊尚卡尔在会上指出，中等强国应当主动加强彼此间的合作，并“设法推动那些对自身至关重要的问题取得进展”。
India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the gathering that middle power countries need to be proactive in engaging with each other and “figure out a way of moving the needle on issues of interest to them.”
瑞士与加拿大的官员则强调，各国需实现贸易伙伴多元化，并着力提升供应链的韧性。英国前首相里希·苏纳克认为，中等强国的生存之道在于充分发挥自身的贸易竞争优势，从而“让自己变得不可或缺”。近年来，随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普动摇了传统联盟体系，诸如北约这样的国际机构影响力也日渐式微，这些通常具备全球影响力却尚未跻身超级大国行列的国家所面临的挑战也愈发严峻。
Swiss and Canadian officials spoke about the need to diversify trading partners and build resilience in supply chains. Former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said one survival strategy for nations was to use their competitive trade advantages to “make themselves indispensable.”The challenge facing middle powers, often described as nations with global influence but not superpower status, has grown more acute in recent years as US President Donald Trump upended traditional alliances and institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization weakened.
今年早些时候，加拿大总理马克·卡尼呼吁这类国家团结起来，共同应对由美国主导的所谓“基于规则的秩序”逐渐瓦解的局面。
Earlier this year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for such countries to band together in response to the breakdown of the so-called rules-based order led by the US.
对中等强国而言，最大的挑战莫过于曾经可靠的供应链如今已岌岌可危。特朗普实施的关税政策严重限制了众多国家进入全球最大的消费市场。中东地区的局势动荡以及乌克兰战争也迫使许多国家另寻能源与食品供应渠道。与此同时，中国在关键矿产及重要技术原料领域的强势地位，也给各国企业领袖与政府首脑带来了新的难题。
Among the biggest challenges facing middle powers is the undermining of once-reliable supply chains. Trump’s tariff onslaught has strangled access for many countries to the world’s largest consumer market. Instability in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine have forced many nations to secure alternate energy and food supplies, while Beijing’s dominance in critical minerals and key technological inputs has created new headaches for CEOs and world leaders.
“我们正从一个壁垒消除、资金自由流动、货物自由流动的时代，转向一个遭受并被各种可能的手段武器化所困扰的时代，”物流巨头DP World首席执行官Yuvraj Narayan在彭博社活动上表示。
“We are moved away from an era where barriers dropped, free flow of money, free flow of goods, to an era which is suffered and been inflicted by weaponization of everything possible,” Yuvraj Narayan, chief executive officer of logistics giant DP World, said at the Bloomberg event.
他强调了从霍尔木兹海峡到巴拿马运河和马六甲海峡等主要咽喉要道重新出现的风险。
He highlighted renewed risks in major choke points from the Strait of Hormuz to the Panama Canal and the Strait of Malacca.
“在刚刚结束的那个时代，我本可以在供应链上投资10亿美元，现在我将考虑投资近乎翻倍的金额，”他说。
“Where I could have invested a billion dollars in supply chains in the era which has just ended, I am now going to look at investing almost double,” he said.
瑞士贸易谈判代表Helene Budliger Artieda表示，鉴于此类供应链中断，瑞士的重点一直放在韧性和合同多元化上，她周三在一个小组讨论中表示，她一直“非常忙碌，四处奔波谈判自由贸易协定。”
Swiss trade negotiator Helene Budliger Artieda said her country’s focus has been centered on resilience and diversifying contracts in the wake of such supply-chain disruptions, telling a panel on Wednesday that she’s been “very busy traveling aroundg free trade agreements.”
“作为一个小国，我们无法避开障碍，”Artieda说。“我们不希望在瑞士制造所有东西。那完全讲不通，因为我们国土面积小，经济规模中等。”为了论证“不可或缺”这一观点，苏纳克以荷兰为例，后者实际上控制着最尖端芯片制造设备的市场。他表示，德国、韩国和日本也各自主导着芯片供应链的关键环节。
“As a small country, we cannot avoid hurdles,” Artieda said. “We do not wish to manufacture everything in Switzerland. That will make no sense at all because we’re a small country in size with a mid-size economy.”To make the point about being “indispensable,” Sunak turned to the example of the Netherlands, which effectively controls the market for the most cutting-edge chip manufacturing equipment. Germany, South Korea and Japan each also dominate crucial segments of the chip supply chain, he said.
“如果你是一个中等强国，找到那些能让你变得不可或缺的方式——成为一个咽喉要道，”他说。
“If you’re a middle power, finding those ways that you can make yourself indispensable — become a choke point,” he said.
对于加拿大来说，将其战略优势武器化不是一种选择，外交部长Anita Anand表示。
For Canada, weaponizing its strategic advantages wasn’t an option, Foreign Minister Anita Anand said.
“我认为重要的是，至少从加拿大的角度来看——我也希望其他中等强国能抓住这一理念——那就是我们永远不会将我们的竞争优势作为武器使用，”她说。
“The one thing I think is important, at least from a Canadian perspective — and I would like other middle powers to grab onto this idea as well — is that we will never utilize our competitive advantages as a weapon,” she said.
对于印度商业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔而言，提升自给自足是关键。他表示，在新冠疫情暴露了印度对进口疫苗的依赖后，这一战略变得更加紧迫。
For Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, boosting self-sufficiency was the key. He said the strategy grew in urgency in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic after India’s reliance on imported vaccines was revealed.
“无论我们在个人防护装备、新冠检测试剂盒还是疫苗方面下了多少订单，所有国家都让我们彻底失望，”他说。印度最终成为主要的疫苗制造国和出口国。
“Wherever we had placed orders for personal protective equipment or Covid kits or vaccines, we were let down miserably by all countries,” he said. India ultimately became a major vaccine manufacturer and exporter.
瑞士贸易谈判代表阿尔蒂达用另一种方式阐述了这一战略：“最重要的是保持冷静，吃瑞士巧克力。”
Artieda, the Swiss trade negotiator, put the strategy another way: “The most important thing is to keep calm and eat Swiss chocolate.”