
根据多名熟悉情况的美国官员透露,美国军方已制定新的打击计划,其中包括可能使用所谓的“所有炸弹之母”来打击伊朗的能源基础设施和核设施。若特朗普总统在中期选举前或之后下令恢复战斗行动,这些计划可能会被启动。
The US military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Donald Trump give the order to resume combat operations either before or after the midterm elections, according to multiple US officials familiar with the matter.
多名熟悉内部军方讨论的消息人士称,首次在对伊朗冲突中使用GBU-43/B大型空爆炸弹(MOAB)——即美国军备库中最大的非核炸弹——将是一次显著的升级。尽管有人质疑该武器在实现特朗普所宣称的任何战略目标方面的有效性,或是否能够扭转战争局势,但这些官员仍表示,使用MOAB将具有重要意义。
Using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb or MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, for the first time in the conflict with Iran would mark a notable escalation, even though there are doubts over how effective it would be in accomplishing any of Trump’s stated strategic objectives or tipping the balance of the war, multiple sources familiar with internal military planning discussions about potentially deploying the weapon said.
特朗普正面临结束这场深不得人心战争的压力——随着共和党人为即将到来的中期选举中可能来自选民的政治反击做准备,且迹象表明,在超过六个月的美军轰炸之后,两国距离谈判解决仍然遥远。
Trump is facing pressure to bring an end to the deeply unpopular war — as Republicans brace for potential political backlash from voters in the upcoming midterm elections and there is little indication the two countries are close to a negotiated resolution after more than six months of US bombing.
尽管美国军方继续向特朗普提供针对伊朗剩余目标的潜在打击方案,但一些官员仍在私下质疑白宫是否拥有一个能够真正结束战争的策略——而这种策略只有总统才有权力制定和实施。
While the US military continues to provide Trump with options for potential strikes against outstanding Iranian targets, some officials continue to privately question whether the White House has a strategy that incorporates those plans in a way that could actually end the war — something only the president has the power to do.
数月来,特朗普及其顾问一直在讨论可能成为战争“明确”结束的方案,至少从信息传递的角度来看如此。他们清楚地认识到,这场冲突在美国民众中已经变得极不受欢迎。
For months, Trump and his advisers have discussed options that could act as a “definitive” end to the war, at least from a messaging point of view, aware of how unpopular the conflict has become among Americans.
虽然一些政府官员将这场战争描述为基本上已经胜利,但特朗普在最近的言论中更为谨慎,他避免宣布胜利,并表示美国在这个国家仍有未完成的任务。
While some administration figures have characterized the war as essentially won, Trump has been more guarded in recent remarks, stopping short of declaring victory and saying the US still has unfinished business in the country.
在幕后,特朗普也对一些鼓励他仅仅把美军撤回国内并继续前进的外部盟友提出质疑。特朗普认为,这样做会看起来像是失败。
Behind the scenes, Trump has also cast doubt on some outside allies who have encouraged him to simply bring US troops home and move on. Doing so, Trump has argued, would look like defeat.
在过去几周里,白宫顾问们举行了会议,讨论针对伊朗的各种选项。虽然特朗普公开宣布他将在中期选举前不采取新行动,但几位顾问私下表示,他们不知道该声明是否具有最终性,或者是否可能在选举日之前发生变化。
Over the course of the last several weeks, White House advisers have held meetings to discuss various options for Iran. While Trump announced publicly that he would not take new actions before the midterms, several advisers said privately they didn’t know whether that statement was definitive or could change before Election Day.
特朗普已命令军方制定针对伊朗目标的额外打击方案,其中包括“大量能源基础设施”和可能使用MOAB,一位消息人士告诉CNN。同一消息人士表示,所用的表述是,这次攻击将在“美军在CENTCOM作战区域(AOR)撤退之前”发动,表明政府可能发动额外打击,试图宣布胜利,然后迅速撤出所有人员。
Trump has ordered the military to develop additional strike packages against Iranian targets that include “a lot of energy infrastructure” and the potential use of a MOAB, one of the sources told CNN. The same source said the phrasing used was that this attack would come “prior to US retrograde in CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility),” indicating the administration could launch the additional strikes, attempt to declare victory and quickly pull everyone out.
第二位消息人士告诉CNN,针对伊朗核设施的军事打击计划,包括Pickaxe Mountain,也明确要求使用MOAB。在过去几个月里,特朗普多次威胁要袭击Pickaxe,美国和以色列认为伊朗在那里储存了其核计划的组成部分,即使今年早些时候暂停了全面作战行动,特朗普仍继续强调他的目标是确保伊朗永远不会获得核武器。
A second source told CNN that military plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for using the MOAB. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Pickaxe, where the US and Israel believe Tehran has stored components of its nuclear program, even after pausing full combat operations earlier this year, and Trump continues to emphasize that his goal is to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.
另一位美国官员指出,当军方制定计划时,它会为政策制定者制定一套从高端到低端的选项菜单。高端目标,包括位于地下深处的目标,需要更大的炸弹,而MOAB是最大的炸弹,该官员补充道。
Another US official noted that when the military plans, it develops a menu of options for policymakers that range from the high-end to low-end. Higher-end targets, including those that are located deep underground, require bigger bombs, and the MOAB is the biggest, the official added.
但关于MOAB是否能够有效用于打击伊朗的核设施及其他位于地下深处的目标,仍存在疑问。虽然这种GPS制导炸弹能够摧毁相当于九个街区的区域,但它很可能缺乏足以穿透地表足够深度以摧毁“斧头”疑似核设施的能力,而该设施据信被花岗岩层层加固,其他伊朗剩余的核设施也是如此,消息人士称。
But there are questions around whether the MOAB would be an effective munition to use against Iran’s nuclear facilities and other sites that are located deep underground. While the GPS-guided bomb is capable of destroying an area equivalent to nine city blocks, it likely lacks the capability to penetrate deep enough under the surface to destroy the suspected nuclear facilities at Pickaxe, which is believed to be fortified by layers of granite, and other remaining Iranian nuclear sites, sources said.
“MOAB是一种大规模信息行动类型的武器,适用于大面积清除,但除此之外用处不大,”一位熟悉围绕伊朗的军事规划讨论的第三位消息人士对CNN表示。“它肯定不是被设计为深穿透弹头。”消息人士指出,如果使用,MOAB将对其冲击区域造成毁灭性影响,但可能仅限于地表层。此外,该炸弹巨大的爆炸半径几乎肯定会引发对平民伤亡前景的担忧 — — 特别是如果它被用于针对靠近人口密集区且临近非军事设施的伊朗基础设施目标时。
“The MOAB is a massive information operation type weapon that is great for huge area clearance but not much else,” a third source familiar with military planning discussions around Iran told CNN. “It is definitely not designed as a deep penetration warhead.”If used, the MOAB would have devastating effects on the area that it impacts but likely only at the surface level, the sources noted. And the bomb’s massive blast radius would almost certainly raise concerns about the prospect of civilian casualties — particularly if it is used to target Iranian infrastructure targets located near populated areas and in close proximity to non-military sites.

尽管如此,特朗普仍可能选择在伊朗政权看来已坚守阵地、不愿屈服于其外交诉求之时,将MOAB作为心理武器使用。虽然美国官员警告称,部署它不太可能迫使伊朗屈服或实现战略军事胜利 — — 但它可能为特朗普提供一个选项,在不重新启动全面作战行动的前提下,以改变冲突的现状。
Still, Trump could opt to use the MOAB as a psychological weapon at a time when the Iranian regime appears dug in and unwilling to bend to his diplomatic demands. While US officials warn that deploying it is unlikely to force Iran’s capitulation or achieve a strategic military victory — it could provide Trump with an additional option, short of restarting full combat operations, to alter the conflict’s current status quo.
“总统不幸地把自己置于一种情形中,在这种情形下他几乎被迫采取行动,而由于缺乏能够穿透该深度的弹药……你不得不考虑MOAB在这方面所具备的心理效应,”熟悉近期规划讨论的第三位消息人士补充道。
“POTUS has unfortunately put himself in a situation where he is almost compelled to do something and, without the ammunition designed to penetrate that level … you have to look at psychological effects for which the MOAB is well-equipped,” the third source familiar with recent planning discussions added.
政府内部以及外部分析人士普遍认为,要想彻底击败伊朗,唯一的办法是通过一项涉及地面部队的大规模行动,这可能需要付出数千名美国士兵生命的代价。五角大楼会考虑所有情景,因此这些计划确实存在,但截至目前,政府内部尚无人主张采取如此激进行动。
Many within the administration as well as outside analysts agree that the only way to decisively defeat Iran would be through a major operation involving ground troops, a commitment that could potentially cost thousands of American lives. The Pentagon considers all scenarios, so those plans exist, but as of now no one in the administration is arguing for such drastic action.
特朗普表示,他对在美国伊朗境内部署美军地面部队兴趣不大,但他希望尽快结束冲突的意愿,却为一位深知战争已变得极不受欢迎却又未能达成能够终结冲突的外交协议的总统带来了政治困境。
Trump has indicated he has little interest in putting US boots on the ground in Iran but his desire to end the conflict as soon as possible presents a political dilemma for a president who is keenly aware of how unpopular the war has become yet has been unable to secure a diplomatic agreement that would bring it to a close.
据CNN报道,特朗普政府高级官员和军事规划者数周来一直专注于寻找一种“下坡路”——至少能让特朗普获得一个“象征性”的胜利,他可以尝试向美国人民兜售,同时又不阻碍潜在的外交突破,起点是就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡达成协议。
Top Trump administration officials and military planners have been focused, for weeks, on finding an off-ramp that gives Trump a “symbolic” win — at minimum — he can try to sell to the American people without preventing a potential diplomatic breakthrough, starting with an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, CNN has reported.
一位熟悉五角大楼近期关于伊朗的规划讨论的第四位消息人士告诉CNN,军方官员已经制定了一些方案,这些方案将相当于一场“烟火表演”,其目的是即使这些打击未能实现特朗普发动战争的最初目标,也能为他提供一个从冲突中脱身的途径。
A fourth source familiar with the Pentagon’s recent planning discussions on Iran told CNN that military officials had developed some options that would amount to a “fireworks show,” with the goal of providing Trump an off-ramp from the conflict even if those strikes fail to accomplish his stated goals for starting the war in the first place.
尽管特朗普最近承诺在中期选举前暂停发动额外打击,但美军似乎已经在为总统可能下达进攻命令后伊朗可能的报复做准备。
And despite Trump’s recent pledge to hold off on launching additional strikes before the midterms, the US military already appears to be preparing for potential Iranian retaliation should the president give the go-order.
据第五位消息人士——一位承认该地区轮换人员可能不会被新兵力完全替代的美国官员透露,预计未来几周内,驻扎在美国中央司令部(CENTCOM)的美军轮换也将进行。
The next turnover of US troops deployed to CENTCOM is also expected to take place within the next few weeks, according to a fifth source, a US official who acknowledged it is possible some of the personnel who rotate out of the region, may not be replaced by fresh service members.
被问及这些计划时,一位白宫官员告诉CNN,他们不对可能存在或可能不存在的敏感军事计划发表评论,并补充说:“特朗普总统将所有选项都放在桌面上,以确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器。”
Asked about the plans, a White House official told CNN that they do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, adding “President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.”
针对CNN的置评请求,一位五角大楼官员表示:“战争部为执行总统和国防部长级别的指令,并确保在任何作战环境中任务成功,会为广泛的作战情景制定计划。”
In response to CNN’s request for comment, a Pentagon official said: “The Department of War plans for a wide range of operational scenarios to execute Presidential and Secretary‑level direction and to ensure mission success in any operational environment.”
MOAB是在伊拉克战争期间研发的,是一种空爆型弹头,在触地前爆炸,从四面八方投射出巨大的爆炸威力。
Developed during the Iraq War, the MOAB is an air blast-type warhead that explodes before hitting the ground to project a massive explosion from all sides.
在2003年测试的最后阶段,军方官员告诉CNN,MOAB最初主要被构想为用于“心理行动”的武器。当时的军方官员表示,他们希望如此巨大的爆炸能震慑伊拉克军队,迫使他们投降甚至不战而逃。
During the final stages of testing in 2003, military officials told CNN the MOAB was mainly conceived as a weapon employed for “psychological operations.”Military officials said then they hoped such a huge blast would rattle Iraqi troops and pressure them into surrendering or not even fighting.
最初设想时,MOAB旨在用于对付大规模的部队和装备,或是加固的地上掩体。目标范围后来被扩大,以包括埋藏在较软表面下的目标,如洞穴或隧道。
As originally conceived, the MOAB was to be used against large formations of troops and equipment or hardened above-ground bunkers. The target set has been expanded to include targets buried under softer surfaces, such as caves or tunnels.
特朗普是首位使用MOAB的美国总统,他在第一个任期期间授权军队在2017年对阿富汗的ISIS阵地使用其最强大的非核弹。
Trump was the first US president to deploy the MOAB, during his first term when he authorized the military to use its most powerful non-nuclear bomb on ISIS positions in Afghanistan in 2017.
那次袭击的目标是ISIS用来对政府军发动袭击的加固地下隧道网络——阿富汗官员称,此次打击击毙了36名ISIS战斗员。爆炸摧毁了三条地下隧道以及武器和弹药,但未造成平民伤亡,阿富汗和美国官员当时补充道。
That strike targeted a network of fortified underground tunnels that ISIS had been using to stage attacks on government forces — killing 36 ISIS fighters, Afghan officials said. The blast destroyed three underground tunnels as well as weapons and ammunition, but no civilians were hurt, Afghan and US officials added at the time.

当时,此次轰炸标志着特朗普态度的戏剧性转变——他在首次竞选期间曾主张孤立主义、“美国优先”的外交政策。
At the time, the bombing marked a dramatic change in attitude for Trump, who advocated an isolationist, “America first” foreign policy during his first election campaign.
2017年袭击之后,美国军方官员被问及这枚重21,600磅的炸弹是否对该特定目标是必要的,如果该弹药被用于对伊朗的行动,他们可能会面临类似的质疑。
Following the 2017 strike, US military officials were pressed on whether the 21,600-pound bomb was necessary for that particular target and would likely face similar questions if the munition is deployed against Iran.