世界贸易组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉周四对路透社表示，随着各企业纷纷采取措施以防范未来可能出现的各类风险，不断变化的地缘政治局势以及乌克兰和中东地区的战争将对全球贸易流向产生深远影响。
Shifting geopolitics and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will have a lasting impact on world trade flows as companies hedge their bets against future shocks, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organization, told Reuters on Thursday.
奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉在采访中指出，受伊朗战争影响，中东地区的贸易量大幅萎缩，尽管各方采取了诸多应对措施，但贸易恢复仍需时日；部分贸易格局的变化甚至可能成为长期趋势。世贸组织预测，今年全球出口额将下降17%，进口额也将减少约15%。
Trade had contracted sharply in the Middle East as a result of the Iran war, despite a series of workarounds, and would take some time to bounce back, Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview, adding that some of the shifts could become permanent. The WTO forecast a 17% drop in exports this year, with imports down about 15%.
一些私营行业专家原本预计，一旦战争结束且霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，由于该通道是成本较低的贸易通道，贸易活动便会迅速回升。不过她指出，接连发生的冲突凸显了贸易路线多元化及应急预案制定的必要性，因此部分替代性贸易路线很可能会长期存在。
Private sector experts were forecasting a rebound once the war ended and the Strait of Hormuz was open since it offered a cheaper route for trade, but repeated conflicts had underscored the need for diversification and contingency planning, and some of the alternative trade routes would likely endure, she said.
在国际货币基金组织与世界银行年度会议期间举行的采访中，奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉说道：“我们发现，各类‘瓶颈环节’与‘瓶颈资源’都是全球必须予以重视的问题。”
"We are finding that choke points and choke assets are things we have to think about for the world," Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
她补充道：“我认为部分替代性贸易路线会保留下来，因为各国政府与企业都希望为各种潜在风险做好防范。”鉴于战争及其他贸易干扰因素带来的反复冲击——包括美国总统唐纳德·特朗普实施的大规模关税措施——她预计各国与企业向不同地区和国家进行贸易布局的多元化趋势还将持续。
"I think some of these alternatives will stay because both countries and businesses want to hedge against eventualities." She said she expected broader diversification efforts into different regions and countries to continue given the repeated shocks caused by wars and other trade disruptions, including a massive wave of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
“毫无疑问，全球供应链正在经历重新调整，”她说道。尽管开辟新贸易路线成本更高，但企业界在探索新路径方面已展现出极强的创造力。
"There's absolutely no doubt that supply chains have been reconfiguring," she said. Business leaders had proven creative in finding new trade routes, although they were more costly.
她指出，其中部分举措会长期延续，“因为从地缘政治层面来看，这么做是明智之举。”
Some of those efforts would endure "because geopolitics makes it a sensible thing to do," she said.
此外，地区性贸易也将持续扩张。她举例称，非洲各国若能加强区域内的贸易往来，便可显著促进自身经济增长与贸易发展。
Regional trade would also continue to expand, she said, noting that African countries, for instance, could boost growth and trade significantly by trading more within the continent.
“非洲各国之间开展贸易确实能够创造价值、创造就业机会，”她说道。她指出，目前非洲内部贸易占非洲整体贸易的比重约为20%，而欧盟内部贸易则占其贸易总额的60%左右。
"Africans trading among themselves can really create value, create jobs," she said, noting that intra-African trade now accounted for about 20% of African trade, while trade within the European Union accounted for about 60% of its trade.
预计区域贸易协定仍将持续推进，不过目前仍由世贸组织规则管辖的贸易占全球贸易总量的近四分之三。
Regional trade agreements were expected to continue to advance, although trade governed by WTO rules still accounted for nearly three-quarters of all trade.
上周，世贸组织上调了全球商品贸易增长预期。由于对人工智能相关产品的需求强劲，这一需求有效抵消了中东地区冲突升级所带来的负面影响。据预测，2026年全球商品贸易量增幅有望达到3.9%，高于世贸组织3月份发布的1.9%的基准预期值。
The WTO last week upgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade growth, with demand for AI-related products helping to offset the impact of disruptions caused by the widening war in the Middle East. It said world merchandise trade volume growth was projected to reach 3.9% in 2026, up from 1.9% in the WTO's baseline forecast issued in March.
奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉表示，鉴于当前冲突不断、关税政策变动以及人工智能热潮可能消退或骤冷等不确定因素，未来形势依然难以预料。
Okonjo-Iweala said the future remained uncertain given the ongoing conflicts, tariffs and concerns that the boom in AI would fizzle out or collapse.
“人工智能所带来的影响掩盖了贸易领域的其他负面趋势，”她说道。
"The impact of AI is masking the other tendencies in trade, which are not on the positive side," she said.