
法国央行行长埃马纽埃尔·穆兰坚持称,尽管该国正面临政治动荡,但法国正在“整顿家务”,并有能力削减其沉重的预算赤字。
France is "putting the house in order" and is capable of slashing its burdensome budget deficit, despite the political turmoil facing the country, the head of the country's central bank insists.
该国目前正受欧盟过度赤字程序的约束,欧盟建议巴黎将其全国赤字降至接近国内生产总值的3%,而去年这一比例为5.1%。
The country is currently subject to the EU's excessive deficit procedure with the bloc recommending Paris bring its national deficit closer to 3% of GDP, compared to 5.1% as of last year.
市场对政治不稳定阻碍赤字控制努力的担忧,今年一直压制法国债券市场,加剧了因美伊战争及其导致的通胀担忧而在全球范围内感受到的压力。
Market concerns about political instability hampering efforts to bring the deficit under control have weighed on French bond markets this year, exacerbating pressures felt globally from the U.S.-Iran war and consequential inflation fears.
在曼谷国际货币基金组织会议期间,法国央行行长埃马纽埃尔·穆兰在接受CNBC记者JP Ong的采访时表示,他不认为近几个月来政府借贷成本的上升与法国财政状况的变化有关。
Speaking to CNBC's JP Ong on the sidelines of the IMF Meetings in Bangkok, Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said that he did not believe rising government borrowing costs in recent months were linked to a change in the French fiscal position.
他说:“这实际上是关于政治不确定性以及预算是否能够以实现5%赤字的方式通过——这是政府的目标。”他补充道:“我认为,为了安抚市场,重要的是要有一个经过投票通过的预算,并且该预算能够坚持5%的赤字目标。”他指出,过去法国政府曾成功整顿公共财政并大幅削减赤字。但他表示,如今实现必要的调整更为困难,因为法国国债的服务成本如此之高。
"It's really about political uncertainty and the question whether the budget will be adopted with [delivering] a 5% deficit, which is the objective of the government," he said. "And I think to reassure markets, it is important that there is a budget that is voted and a budget that sticks to the 5% deficit." He noted that, in the past, French governments had successfully consolidated public finances and drastically cut their deficits. But he said it was more difficult to deliver the necessary changes today, because the cost of servicing France's national debt was so high.
他说:“每年多约10亿欧元,因此我们在整顿财政时需要将此因素考虑在内。”但他表示:“我认为到2029年将赤字降至3%是可能的,这也是政府的目标。”当被问及法国政府是否能够在不实施紧缩政策的情况下实现这一目标时,穆兰周四表示,他不认为这样的政策组合目前在考虑之列。
"It's about 10 billion [euros] per year more, so we need to take this into account in the consolidation," Moulin said. "But I think it is possible to get back to a 3% deficit in 2029, which is the objective of the government." Asked whether the French government could deliver on that objective without enforcing a period of austerity, Moulin said Thursday that he didn't think such a policy mix was in the cards.
他说:“我对这是紧缩政策这一说法提出质疑。这不是紧缩政策。这只是在整顿家务。”
"I would challenge the fact that this is austerity. This is not austerity. It is just putting the house in order," he said.
上周在IMF年会期间接受CNBC采访时,该机构总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示,她对法国的信息是“把你们的家收拾好。”今年,随着人们对法国财政前景的担忧加剧,法国政府债券(即OAT)收益率已升至多年高点,引发人们对可能引发主权债务危机的担忧,这种危机可能波及更广泛的欧元区。
Speaking to CNBC at the IMF Meetings last week, the institution's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said her message to France was to "get your house in order." Yields on French government bonds, known as OATs, have surged to multi-decade highs this year amid rising concerns about France's fiscal outlook, sparking concerns about a possible sovereign debt crisis that could impact the broader euro zone.

但穆兰周四对CNBC表示,他“对法国和欧洲的金融稳定充满信心”,并指出银行、保险和金融部门“资本充足、流动性充裕”。他说:“利率上升是一种全球现象。”这要求多个国家实施更严格的财政紧缩,无论是美国、法国,还是其他一些欧洲国家,也包括日本。这是一种全球现象。因此,我不认为我们应该过度担心传染风险。”
But Moulin told CNBC Thursday that he was "confident about financial stability in France and in Europe," pointing to solid banking, insurance and financial sectors that were "well capitalized with ample liquidity." "It's a global phenomenon that interest rates are increasing," he said. "It calls for stricter fiscal consolidation in a number of countries, be it the U.S., be it France, be it some other European countries, also Japan. This is a global phenomenon. So I don't think we should be too afraid of a risk of contagion."
他补充说,法国“在寻找投资者购买我们的债券方面没有问题”。“由于这种政治不确定性以及我们的财政状况需要改善,我们的收益率略高一些,”他对CNBC说。“但我认为投资者也看到,法国是世界第七大经济体,欧元区第二大经济体。它拥有高度多元化的经济、低廉的能源价格以及家庭的强劲储蓄,因此他们看到了法国经济的实力,我不认为他们会改变对法国的看法。”
He added that France has "no problem finding investors to buy our bonds." "We pay a little bit higher [yields] because of this political uncertainty and also because our fiscal situation needs to be improved," he told CNBC. "But I think investors see also that France is the seventh largest economy in the world, second [biggest] economy in the euro area. It has a very diversified economy, it has low energy prices, it has strong savings from households and so they see the strength of the French economy and I don't think they change their mind in terms of how they see [France.]"
但他承认,投资者“也在关注我们的财政状况,我们需要解决这个问题并把它恢复到正轨上。”目前,法国正陷入政治危机。总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努的政府最近提交了2027财年预算草案,但预计将在政治分裂的国民议会面临通过支出计划的障碍。
But he conceded that investors "also look at our fiscal situation, and we need to deal with that and to put it back into order." France is currently in the throes of a political crisis. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's government recently submitted its draft proposal for the 2027 fiscal budget, but is expected to face obstacles to passing the spending plans in the politically fractured National Assembly.
勒科尔努表示,他将以削减540亿欧元(约合618亿美元)开支为目标,坚称需要更严格的财政纪律,以遏制法国不断膨胀的债务负担,并缩减欧元区最大的预算赤字之一。据报道,削减措施将来自冻结公共部门工资和养老金、调整部分就业税收减免,以及限制地方政府预算。
Lecornu has said he will target 54 billion euros ($61.8 billion) in spending cuts, insisting that greater fiscal discipline is needed to quell France's ballooning debt load and reduce one of the euro area's biggest budget deficits Cuts are reportedly planned to come from freezing public sector wages and pensions, changes to some employment tax breaks, and restricting local government budgets.
法国陷入愤怒的学生与无情的债券市场的夹击之中 图表解读:世界最大经济体之一如何陷入债务陷阱 法国新一轮预算博弈恐再推翻一届政府 法国成为主权债务问题“典型案例”,借贷成本升至2008年以来高位 但近年来,预算谈判已成为政治动荡的根源。去年谈判未能取得突破后,勒科尔努于今年2月动用紧急立法,在未经议会批准的情况下强行通过了今年的预算。
France is caught between angry students and unforgiving bond markets In charts: How one of the world's biggest economies got trapped by debt France's fresh budget battle threatens to topple another government France becomes ‘poster child’ of sovereign debt problems as borrowing costs hit post-2008 high But budget negotiations have become a source of political turbulence in recent years. After failing to reach a breakthrough in last year's negotiations, Lecornu used emergency legislation to force this year's budget through without parliamentary approval in February.
此前多届政府因支出分歧激化而垮台——勒科尔努本人上任不足一个月便因预算分歧辞职,数天后又被总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙重新任命。
Previous administrations were ousted when spending disagreements came to a head – and Lecornu himself resigned less than a month into his tenure over budget divisions, only to be reappointed by President Emmanuel Macron days later.
进一步增加政府控制法国赤字难度的是,自9月下旬以来,全国性学生抗议活动从巴黎向外扩散。高中生走上街头、封锁学校,并与警察发生冲突,以表达对上课时间过长、教师短缺和教育设施破旧的不满。法国政府已承诺增聘3000名教师,试图平息动荡。
Further complicating the government's efforts to bring the French deficit under control are nationwide student protests which have rippled outward from Paris since late September. High school students have taken to the streets, blockaded schools and come to blows with police as they express discontent with long study days, teacher shortages and dilapidated educational facilities. The French government has already promised 3,000 extra teachers in a bid to quell the unrest.
投资者也在展望明年春天的法国总统大选。目前领跑的右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞本月早些时候表示,若当选,她可在18个月内将赤字降至3%以下,但批评者质疑其提出的节省措施是否可信。
Investors are also looking ahead to next spring's French presidential election. Current frontrunner, right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen, earlier this month that she could bring the deficit below 3% within 18 months of being elected, but critics questioned whether her proposed savings were credible.