电信股长期以来被视为投资者相对安全的选择，提供可预测的增长、有限的下行空间和健康的股息。但SpaceX的竞争加剧和美国国债收益率上升的组合正威胁着颠覆这一格局。
Telecom stocks have long been considered a relatively safe bet for investors, offering predictable growth, limited downside and healthy dividends. But a combination of competition from SpaceX and rising Treasury yields is threatening to upend that equation.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.上周宣布，它正在购买一段频谱，这将使其能够通过其Starlink卫星提供蜂窝服务，从而可能使埃隆·马斯克的航空航天技术公司也成为一家主要的移动运营商。Verizon Communications Inc.、AT&T Inc.和T-Mobile US Inc.在周五因该消息而出现双位数百分比的下跌。
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. announced last week that it’s buying a swath of spectrum that will enable it to beam cellular service from its Starlink satellites, potentially setting up Elon Musk’s aerospace technology company to become a major mobile carrier as well. Verizon Communications Inc., AT&T Inc., and T-Mobile US Inc. all suffered double-digit percentage declines on Friday after the news hit.
“竞争风险正以前所未有的方式显现出来，”Third Bridge Group的电信分析师约翰·康卡（John Conca）表示。“市场认为这只是第一只鞋掉落。”电信公司此前已因利率飙升而承受压力。9月15日，10年期美国国债收益率突破5%，此后Verizon和AT&T的股价分别下跌14%，而T-Mobile的股价下跌13%。这些公司对债券收益率敏感，因为它们的部分吸引力来自可靠的股息派发。
“Competitive risk is presenting itself in a way it hasn’t in the past,” said John Conca, a telecom analyst at Third Bridge Group. “The market perception is that this is just the first shoe dropping.”The telecommunications players were already under pressure from soaring interest rates. The yield on 10-year Treasuries crossed 5% on Sept. 15, and since then shares of Verizon and AT&T are down 14% while T-Mobile’s have lost 13%. The companies are sensitive to bond yields because part of their appeal is based on their reliable dividend payouts.
“一些人购买它们是因为它们的（股息）收益率，认为这伴随着增长推动器，”Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds的总裁兼投资组合经理迈克尔·库吉诺（Michael Cuggino）表示。“但它们的增长并不大，而且由于SpaceX的问题，未来该增长存在风险。与此同时，收益率看起来也没有否则可能那么有吸引力，因为你可以从无风险的美国国债中获得类似的收益率。”
“Some people buy them for their (dividend) yields on the idea that it comes with a growth kicker,” said Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds. “But they’re not growing very much, and there are risks to that growth down the road with this SpaceX question. At the same time, the yields don’t look nearly as attractive as they might otherwise, because you can get a similar yield from risk-free Treasuries.”
T-Mobile股票今年已下跌22%，而AT&T亏损7.2%。Verizon上涨9.1%，但仍落后于标普500指数13%的涨幅。SpaceX于6月上市，其股价较IPO价上涨了13%，但较IPO后几天达到的峰值下跌了25%。
T-Mobile shares are down 22% this year, while AT&T has lost 7.2%. Verizon is up 9.1% but still trails the S&P 500 Index’s 13% gain. SpaceX went public in June and the stock has jumped 13% from its IPO price, though it’s 25% below the peak it hit within days of the IPO.
当然，考虑到SpaceX需要大量昂贵的地面基础设施才能有效竞争，尤其是在人口密集的市场，其威胁还远在后面，正如Conca所说。然而，这正在加剧人们对行业增长速度的既有担忧。
Of course, the threat from SpaceX is pretty far down the road considering it will need a lot of costly terrestrial infrastructure to effectively compete, especially in densely-populated markets, according to Conca. However, this is compounding pre-existing concerns about the pace of growth in the industry.
“这在短期更多是关于情绪而非基本面，”他说。“但即便他们未来失去显著市场份额的可能性很小，也真的会吓到人。”这些担忧不仅限于美国。在欧洲，持有T-Mobile多数股权的德国电信股价在周三收盘时已今年下跌8.6%。而欧洲电信股指数较5月的峰值已下跌18%。
“This is more about sentiment than fundamentals in the near term,” he said. “But if there’s even a small chance they could lose significant market share in the future, that’s really going to scare people.”Those fears aren’t confined to the US. In Europe, Deutsche Telekom, which has a majority stake in T-Mobile, is down 8.6% this year through Wednesday’s close. And a gauge of European telecom stocks has fallen 18% from a peak in May.
为了应对竞争，AT&T、T-Mobile和Verizon在SpaceX宣布前几天刚刚推出了一项合资企业，专注于扩展卫星赋能的连接服务，以消除美国的移动死区。当时《彭博社智库》写道，这一举措“应能帮助中和星链移动在美国提供连续覆盖的能力”。
To stay ahead of the competition, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon unveiled a joint venture focused on expanding satellite-enabled connectivity to eliminate US mobile dead zones just days before SpaceX’s announcement. The move “should help neutralize Starlink Mobile’s ability to offer contiguous coverage in the US,” Bloomberg Intelligence wrote at the time.
在接下来的几周里，投资者将有机会了解这些公司的基本面。AT&T将于10月21日发布财报，而Verizon和T-Mobile则安排在接下来的一周。
Investors will get a look at the companies’ fundamentals over the next few weeks, with AT&T reporting earnings on Oct. 21, and Verizon and T-Mobile scheduled for the following week.
面对竞争环境，T-Mobile引用了其首席技术官的一篇领英帖子，该帖子淡化了风险，并指出陆地网络更适合室内覆盖和高密度场景。AT&T和Verizon的代表未回应置评请求。
In response to the competitive environment, T-Mobile pointed to a LinkedIn post from its chief technology officer that downplayed the risk and noted that terrestrial networks were better suited for indoor coverage and density. Representatives from AT&T and Verizon didn’t respond to requests for comment.
如果SpaceX进入该领域，这些公司的股息将成为一个问题，永久投资组合的库吉诺说道。Verizon的股票在标普500指数中拥有前十高股息收益率之一，达到6.4%，而AT&T的为4.8%，T-Mobile的为3%。
Should SpaceX enter the field, the companies’ dividends will become a question, Permanent Portfolio’s Cuggino said. Verizon’s shares have one of the 10 highest yields in the S&P 500 Index at 6.4%, while AT&T’s is 4.8% and T-Mobile’s is 3%.
“SpaceX将成为一个强大的竞争对手，甚至可能影响电信公司的商业模式，迫使其投入更多资金以维持市场份额，”Cuggino表示。“这意味着可用于股票回购或分红的资金将减少，甚至整体盈利也会下降。这将影响估值倍数以及华尔街对这些公司的估值。”使这些问题尤为棘手的是，增长似乎正在放缓。T-Mobile在2025年的收入增长了8.5%，但华尔街分析师预测，今年的这一数字将降至6.8%，并持续放缓，到2029年最终将降至2.2%。
“SpaceX would be a formidable competitor, and could potentially impact telecom business models and force them to spend more to maintain their market share,” Cuggino said. “That would mean less money that’s available for buybacks or dividends, or just earnings overall. That would impact multiples and how Wall Street values them.”What makes these issues particularly thorny is growth appears to be slowing. T-Mobile’s revenues rose 8.5% in 2025, but Wall Street analysts project that figure will be 6.8% this year and continue slowing, eventually hitting 2.2% in 2029.
Verizon在2025年2.5%的收入增长看起来已接近短期高点，因为未来三年的增速预计不会超过2%。而AT&T的年收入预计在整个2029年期间增长幅度将不足3%。
Verizon’s 2.5% revenue increase in 2025 looks like a near-term top, as the pace isn’t expected to exceed 2% for the next three years. And AT&T’s annual revenue is seen rising less than 3% through 2029.
“很难想象，在一个已经触及增长极限的饱和行业中，通过投资就能跑赢市场，尤其是当这些公司还可能面临被SpaceX这样的新进入者抢占市场份额的风险时，”价值型对冲基金Ironhold Capital的首席执行官Paul Gray表示。
“It is very hard to imagine beating the market by investing in a saturated industry that has already reached its growth potential, especially when there’s the risk they could lose market share to a newcomer like SpaceX,” said Paul Gray, chief executive officer of the value-based hedge fund Ironhold Capital.
这些股票吸引投资者的一个方面是价格，因为目前它们相对便宜。Verizon的股价按未来12个月预期盈利的8.5倍交易，低于其10年平均水平10.2倍。T-Mobile的估值倍数约为12倍，接近其自2012年以来的最低水平。AT&T的估值为未来盈利的9.1倍，虽然略高于其10年平均水平，但仍低于2025年达到的13.6倍峰值，而后者也是其自2005年以来的最高水平。
One area where the stocks could appeal to investors is price since they’re relatively cheap at the moment. Verizon trades at 8.5 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months, less than its 10-year average of 10.2. T-Mobile’s multiple is roughly 12 and near its lowest since 2012. AT&T’s valuation, at 9.1 times forward earnings, is a modest premium to its 10-year average but below its 2025 peak of 13.6, which was its highest since 2005.
与此同时，SpaceX的股价按未来盈利计算已超过100倍，是市场上最昂贵的股票之一，与马斯克的另一家公司特斯拉（Tesla Inc.）齐名。
Meanwhile, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times future earnings and is one of the priciest stocks in the market, along with Musk’s other company, Tesla Inc.
“投资一个估值倍数高达100倍的标的，风险实在太大，”Gray表示。“电信行业的增长潜力根本不足以吸引我们介入。”
“Investing in something with a 100 multiple is far too speculative,” Gray said. “There’s just not enough growth potential in telecom for us to get involved.”