
SpaceX同意以约80亿美元的价格购买美国全国范围内的低频段无线频谱;这一消息导致AT&T、Verizon和T-Mobile的股价大幅下跌。欧洲的类似频谱资源将于2027年5月进行拍卖,布鲁塞尔方面提议将其中三分之二的频谱资源预留给欧洲企业及政府机构使用。
SpaceX agreed to pay about $8B for nationwide low-band US spectrum, and shares in AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell on the news. Europe’s equivalent band comes up for selection in May 2027, with Brussels proposing that two-thirds of it be reserved for European firms and sovereign use.
SpaceX的这一举动使其从单纯的卫星运营商转变为一家能够提供移动通信服务的公司;然而,这种“转型”在欧洲是无法实现的(即欧洲的电信法规不允许类似的操作)。
SpaceX has agreed to pay about $8B for the thing that turns a satellite operator into a phone company. US carrier shares fell hard. The same move is not available in Europe.
据彭博社报道,此次频谱交易暴露了电信类股票所具有的极低投资吸引力:德国电信(Deutsche Telekom)今年的股价已下跌8.6%;衡量欧洲电信股表现的指数也从5月份的峰值下跌了18%。
Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the sell-off has exposed how little protection telecom stocks offer. Deutsche Telekom is down 8.6% this year, and a gauge of European telecom shares has fallen 18% from a May peak.
SpaceX于10月9日宣布,将从投资公司Grain Management手中购买全国范围内的800 MHz低频段无线频谱。《华尔街日报》估计交易金额约为80亿美元,但该交易仍需获得美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)的批准。
SpaceX said on 9 October it would buy nationwide low-band 800 MHz spectrum from investment firm Grain Management. The Wall Street Journal put the price at $8B in cash. The deal needs FCC clearance.
根据Axios的报道,T-Mobile的股价下跌了13.3%、AT&T下跌了9.8%、Verizon下跌了8.8%;对Verizon来说,这是该公司自2002年以来表现最糟糕的一天。
T-Mobile closed down 13.3%, AT&T 9.8% and Verizon 8.8%, according to Axios. It was Verizon’s worst day since 2002.
这一低频段频谱非常重要,因为大多数手机都支持该频段的通信服务,且该频段信号在室内也能保持良好的传输效果——这正是SpaceX目前所欠缺的技术优势。此前SpaceX已为EchoStar公司支付了170亿美元用于购买相关频谱许可,并在首次公开募股(IPO)时表示正在考虑开展移动通信服务业务。
The band matters because most phones support it and it carries indoors, SpaceX’s remaining technical gap. It had already paid $17B for EchoStar licences, and told IPO investors it was weighing a retail mobile service.
分析师们的反应相对冷静。Third Bridge公司的John Conca向彭博社表示,SpaceX在人口密集的市场地区仍需要建设昂贵的地面通信基础设施;因此,股价的下跌更多是市场情绪的反应,而非公司基本面的问题。
Analysts were calmer than the tape. John Conca of Third Bridge told Bloomberg that SpaceX still needs expensive ground infrastructure in dense markets, and that this is sentiment rather than fundamentals.
其他因素也影响了股价:9月15日,美国10年期国债的收益率突破了5%;此外,T-Mobile的股息率也失去了其吸引力(因为其股息率已经大幅下降)。在Srini Gopalan的领导下,T-Mobile的股价已经下跌了25%。
Rates did the rest. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% on 15 September, and a dividend stopped being special. T-Mobile was already weak after a 25% slide under Srini Gopalan.
目前,Verizon的股息率为6.4%,在标准普尔500指数成分股中属于最高水平之一(AT&T为4.8%,T-Mobile为3%);其股价市盈率仅为8.5倍,低于过去十年的平均水平。
Verizon yields 6.4%, among the ten highest in the S&P 500, against AT&T’s 4.8% and T-Mobile’s 3%. It trades at 8.5 times forward earnings, below its ten-year average.
欧洲的电信市场目前尚未被充分评估:布鲁塞尔委员会曾在5月份提议将欧洲的2 GHz移动卫星频谱资源分成三部分,其中三分之二将留给欧洲企业或政府机构使用。
Europe is the part nobody is pricing. The Commission proposed in May that the bloc’s 2 GHz mobile satellite band be split in three, with two-thirds reserved for a European-controlled operator and for sovereign use.
目前由Viasat和EchoStar持有的许可证将于2027年5月到期。SpaceX和亚马逊可以竞标剩余的第三部分。但议会和理事会仍需批准。
The current licences, held by Viasat and EchoStar, expire in May 2027. SpaceX and Amazon can bid for the remaining third. Parliament and Council must still approve it.
德国电信、Orange、沃达丰和西班牙电信正在初步商讨联合竞标。沃达丰将不得不重组其与AST SpaceMobile的50/50合资企业,而该合资企业将不被视为欧洲控制的企业。
Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefonica are in early talks to bid together. Vodafone would have to restructure its 50/50 venture with AST SpaceMobile, which would not count as European-controlled.
Starlink已经能够覆盖欧洲的手机,但它是通过运营商而非直接提供服务,德国电信便是其中之一。如果没有频谱资源,它就无法直接向这些运营商销售服务。
Starlink already reaches European phones, but through operators rather than on its own, Deutsche Telekom among them. Without spectrum it cannot sell to them directly.
为各国政府预留的第三部分将分配给IRIS2项目,该项目目前正处于部署阶段,专为政府安全通信而非消费者手机设计,要到2030年才会提供服务。周五的情况表明,2027年的选择究竟有多重要。
The third set aside for governments goes to IRIS2, now in deployment, built for secure government traffic rather than consumer phones, with no service until 2030. Friday showed what the 2027 selection is worth.