国际货币基金组织在批评美国财政政策之前，应该先检查一下自己的预测记录。财政部长新任命的顾问大卫·泽沃斯周四表示。
The International Monetary Fund should check its own forecasting record before criticizing U.S. fiscal policy, David Zervos, newly appointed counselor to the Treasury Secretary said on Thursday.
“当我们看到关于国际货币基金组织的报道时，最好记得他们过去的预测有多混乱。”泽沃斯在发给CNBC的电子邮件评论中说。
"When we see pieces on the IMF, it's good to remember how messy their forecasts have been in the past," Zervos said in emailed comments to CNBC.
这位前华尔街经济学家是在回应国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃。她在周三于曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织-世界银行年会上警告称，强劲的美国经济增长不足以让不断上升的联邦债务走上可持续的轨道。
The former Wall Street economist was responding to the IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who cautioned during the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Wednesday that strong U.S. economic growth would not be sufficient to put mounting federal debt on a sustainable course.
格奥尔基耶娃 herself 正在回应美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特。贝森特在八月告诉CNBC，美国可以“靠增长摆脱”不断上升的债务占GDP的比重，就在政府债务超过40万亿美元之后。分析：为什么2万亿美元的赤字和5%的国债收益率正成为美国最大的经济挑战。泽沃斯曾是杰富瑞的首席市场策略师，他在周四表示：“2008年，[国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望报告》]将全球增长预测为3%，而一年后我们经历了战后历史上的首次全球性收缩。我们看到他们在1997年对东南亚持乐观态度，就在崩溃之前。”
Georgieva was herself responding to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC in August that the U.S. could "grow our way out" of a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, after government debt surpassed $40 trillion Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challenge Zervos, formerly chief market strategist at Jefferies, said Thursday: "In 2008, [the IMF's World Economic Outlook] had world growth at 3% and we had the first global contraction in post-world history a year later.
“我们看到他们在2022年对俄罗斯持非常负面的态度，而俄罗斯实际上在增长开始强劲之前只是出现了轻微的下降。我们看到他们在阿根廷获得570亿美元大规模救助后持非常积极的态度。而到2020年，阿根廷基本上又陷入了违约。历史书还在继续讲，无论是希腊，还是美国当时对通胀的暂时性判断。”“所以一切都要带着一点怀疑态度来看待。”他补充道。
We saw them positive on Southeast Asia in 1997 before the collapse." "We saw them very negative on Russia in 2022, and Russia actually barely saw a blip down in growth before it started growing strongly We saw them very positive on Argentina after their big bailout of $57 billion And by 2020, Argentina was basically in default again And the history books go on and on, whether it's Greece, whether it was the transitory call on inflation in the U.S." "So take it all with a grain of salt," he added.
许多经济学家警告称，美国利息支付不断增加和高额赤字已增加了不可持续债务螺旋的风险。然而，他们对美国是否可能被推入真正的财政危机存在分歧。国际货币基金组织的格奥尔基耶娃曾对其他主要经济体发出类似警告，强调财政紧缩的必要性，她在10月7日对CNBC表示，她对法国的信息是：“把自己的家收拾好。”
Many economists warn that mounting U.S. interest payments and a high deficit have raised the risk of an unsustainable debt spiral. However, they are divided on whether the U.S. could be pushed into a true fiscal crisis The IMF's Georgieva has issued similar warnings to other big economies over the need for fiscal consolidation, telling CNBC on Oct. 7 that her message to France was: "Get your house in order."
其他经济机构也在就全球债务服务成本上升发出警报，这一成本在今年上半年已超过365万亿美元。国际金融协会在9月的一份报告中指出，选举与短期速效方案之间的“恶性循环”正在削弱用于公共服务的支出能力。
Other economic institutions are also sounding the alarm over the rising cost of servicing global debt, which topped $365 trillion in the first half of the year The Institute of International Finance argued in a September report that a "vicious cycle between elections and short-term quick fixes" to debt challenges was reducing the ability to spend money on public services.